Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap
 

The Blue Grass was a classic Poly prep.

Last week - Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch was 2.5% (fair vale in the 40/1 to 50/1 range) to win the Kentucky Derby four weeks in advance of the race - while still needing to run one more time and pad his Graded earnings - he was an overlay at 25/1 today and made the best of a very good pace setup. Nehro - once again was wisely ridden - and once again finished up very strongly to finish 2nd.

The Factor simply proved rating tactics won't work for him. He's 1/5 to be the pacesetter in the KY Derby if he goes. I'm probably being too harsh dropping his win chances to 6.5% - but it's no lock that he's going to run in the KY Derby. His chances of winning may be 6.5% - but his chances of running 3rd and 4th are virtually zero.

A strong underlay coming into this week - The Factor might creep into overlay territory by race time. There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Elite Alex's reportedly sensational workout in blinkers did not translate into anything good on the racetrack. It was easily the worst performance of his career - he barely beat Brethren.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (19.25%)
Dialed In (16.25%)
Archarcharch (8.25%)
Nehro (8%)
Midnight Interlude (8%)
The Factor (6.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (6.25%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Jaycito (2.25%)
Pants on Fire (1.80%)
Brilliant Speed (1.25%)
Santiva (1%)
Decisive Moment (1%)
Animal Kingdom (1%)
Stay Thirsty (0.50%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Sway Away (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Bretheren (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 2.45%

I highly doubt Uncle Mo will be in the gate.

You can get Mo at 6/1 or more offshore. Good luck with that. I make it 3/1 against him making the Derby.

The Factor displaced, I heard. He's 10/1 to make the Derby.

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

I'll take that bet.

2000/1 on watch me go? Has he even run since Tampa?

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

Yes - he was drubbed in the Ill Derby.

He's talking out of his ass.

Granted he may not be as fast early as The Factor, but don't you think that the above is likely the plan for Soldat (given his failed "rating" attempt) as well? Not to mention Shackelford and Comma To The Top.

I don't think those guys could take back, even if they wanted to.

What was the last wire job in the Derby, War Emblem? Was there any real speed in there that year to begin with? I recall Eddie D. prompting the pace with Perfect Drift, a horse was ridden well off the pace early in his preps.

yeah ok, but you have uncle mo at 19.25%.....what races have you been watching???what do you base the 19.25% on????? his race in november?? or the two most recent efforts?? two efforts that will go a long way to winning the derby.....but the "people" are retarded.....

24/1 is 4%.

A little gift from me to you: http://www.calculator.com/calcs/calc_sci.html

LOL :tro::tro::tro:

A repeat of his race in November - over the CD tracks - will easily win the KY Derby - and his two performances this year are about as good as the last two performances of any horse in this crop pointing for the KY Derby.

You're probably right. I can't say I disagree - but if any of those go with The Factor - they will be baked.



Here are the past KY Derby leaders after 8fs - and the figure they needed to run to find themselves there (translated through Moss Pace figures) ....

2010: Noble's Promise (109 Beyer)
2009: Join In The Dance (98 Beyer)
2008: Big Brown (104 Beyer)
2007: Hard Spun (104 Beyer)
2006: Barbaro (98 Beyer)
2005: High Fly (109 Beyer)
2004: Lion Heart (112 Beyer)
2003: Peace Rules (106 Beyer)
2002: War Emblem (101 Beyer)
2001: Congaree (112 Beyer)
2000: Captain Steve (104 Beyer)
1999: Cat Thief (104 Beyer)
1998: Real Quiet (117 Beyer)
1997: Free House (106 Beyer)
1996: Unbridled's Song (115 Beyer)
1995: Serena's Song (106 Beyer)


Only 3 times out of 16 years (18.75%) did a horse manage to lead the Derby after a mile while running a figure of 101 or less to that point ....

In order for a horse like The Factor or Soldat to win the Derby - they need two things to happen imo.

* They need to first be loose on an unpressured lead through the opening half mile

* They need to get to the quarter pole running a figure no faster than a 101 or less

Considering the chances of the latter is about 18% ... if they have a 50% chance of pulling off the former ... it gives them about a 9% chance of winning IMO.

Obviously Soldat will have a harder time getting loose on an uncontested lead than The Factor would - for the simple fact that he doesn't have nearly as much early zip.

So now that Elite Alex is out of derby where does Borel go? In the last four years he is finished first three times and third once, I can't image he will sit on he bench.

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

I was thinking Baffert and Jaycito for Borel. Especially with Baffert naming him on Misremembered.

It's impossible to ignore Borel's stats over that dirt track - especially from an ROI standpoint. They defy logic and reason so much ... that I still have crazy thoughts sometimes about if he has a device or if he's got someone firming up a path litterally right on top of the rail for him. When other guys are "inside" or "racing along the rail" - they don't seem to be quite as far inside as he gets.

When that track is wet - there are many days when the inside was bad for everyone else but great for him - Derby day last year for instance. Almost everything he kept on top of the rail ran huge that day - but otherwise, the four and five paths seemed like the ideal place to be.

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

I've seen people shoehorned into handicapping by BSFs before but really this is amazing.

I'll save the return insult and not label you a hopeless Mo-tard, but it was a bit of a tough decision.

Stay Thirsty is on the bubble in terms of getting into the Derby field? I thought he'd kind of locked that up after the Gotham.

After the ride he gave Bomber Boy on Friday, I would hold a lot against him.

Really? I'd make a humongous bet at even money that Dialed In will run. Your statement is ridiculous unless you have some inside knowledge about Dialed In's condition, which I doubt.


--Dunbar

Does anyone think Uncle Mo goes off the favorite, despite Dialed In's win/record?

You don't see anything - you're acting as if you have juicy inside-info on Uncle Mo's health .... chances are - you don't.

Beyer's play a VERY small role in my handicapping. Of course - since you're the analytically incompetent Johnny Pinwheel 2.0 - I'm sure you can't see that.

The fact that you don't even understand what an overlay is - is most amusing. I'll try and explain this one last time.

From last week....


Here are the horses who ran in the Arkansas Derby - with Derby odds four weeks out - and with closing odds yesterday:

The Factor (12.5%) Closing odds: 4-to-5
Elite Alex (6%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Archarcharch (2.5%) Closing odds: 25-to-1
Sway Away (2.5%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Nehro (1.75%) Closing odds: 9-to-1
Brethren (0.50%) Closing odds: 11-to-1

No one else in the race was quoted with a Derby chance - just grouped into 'The Rest' with several hundred other 3yo's.

Archarcharch was about 12-to-1 fair value to win yesterday - and relatively stronger than that to run underneath due to his versatile running style. I also felt Elite Alex was a slight overlay in the win end - but the addition of 1st time blinkers often leads to a boom or bust type of performance.

Thanks. I'm glad you're amused, I really am. Now we're even.

It's pretty amazing that Uncle Mo tops your most likely list, or anyone's for that matter. My "inside information" is pretty much what I see:
1. He's 6-8 lengths off his 2 yo form
2. He's got distance questions
3. He ran his Wood like he was not only short but didn't look real good at any time. Changing leads multiple times like he did fairly early ain't a good sign.
4. He's got physical issues. Q-crack and his GI disorder are minor things but, at a minimum (and at best) it likely explains his subpar Wood which, to me at least, means he didn't run hard enough to get what he needed from the race.

The "mystery procedure?" I know what I read, that's all. I doubt he'd have come back so quick from anything moderate to serious. But, yeah, I'd guess he had a ittle work done.

His biggest problem is he isn't close to ready to run competitively in the Derby, much less win it. That's what I think.

You obviously think he's likely to work great, overcome whatever number and degree of physical issues he has, have no problem going 10f and run above, or at least match, his top 2 yo form. With all that he's still your most likely winner.

While I understand what an overlay is, I want to commend you making ArchArch 12/1 on your fair value line and getting $52 to win. That is hot sh1t indeed.

Not trying to straddle both sides of the fence on this issue, but you might be wrong here. The only really inspiring winning efforts have been Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe and The Factor in the Rebel. That's it. I guess you could add Dialed In's Florida Derby win if you wanted to considering, as Doug pointed out, Dialed In would have been in the lead in that stakes race for older horses earlier on the card. So let's call it three really good winning efforts. Then you have to lower the bar to get excited about anything else....

Uncle Mo came home fast in the Timely Writer.

Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe and still ran on well in the Louisiana Derby.

Shackleford was gutsy after going fast up front in the Florida Derby.

Nehro seems to be improving over his last two losses.

Comma to the Top aquitted himself well in his last two losses.

Personally, the only horse I would consider playing in the Kentucky Derby out of the Arkansas Derby are The Factor (unless I end up not buying the excuse....haven't decided yet) and Dance City (who won't get in). The Blue Grass was a joke and we know it. I'm not a fan of Midnight Interlude. And it seems like half the Derby field will be turf/polytrack specialists.

If there was ever a year where a horse like Uncle Mo can win the Derby, this is the year. He just doesn't have to beat much, and he's already been where he will need to be to win (that's not just a Beyer reference). Would any of us really say that Uncle Mo can't turn the tables on Toby's Corner? Or outrun Pants on Fire? I still think the race goes through Uncle Mo. It's his to lose. And he might not be favored.

90% of the betters out there don the blinkers and handicap soley on the last race. Very little value to be found in doing that. Uncle Mo may be the overlay of the century in the Derby.

Here is where I think the odds will end up for the top choices at post time:

Dialed In 9-2
Uncle Mo 5-1
The Factor 10-1
Nehro 11-1
Archarcharch 12-1
Jaycito 13-1
Midnight Interlude 15-1
Toby's Corner 15-1
Mucho Macho Man 15-1
Soldat 15-1
Pants on Fire 18-1
Over 20-1 on everyone else

Nehro has gotta be the horse Borel rides. He is the type of horse Borel likes to ride and Nehro might just need the CD Jock Experience that Borel has.

Doubt Nakatani gets off of Comma to the Top,#1 CTTT likes the poly #2 he is a gelding. If Nakatani plays his cards right he could have a ride on him for 2 or 3 more years in Cali. I know Nehro has ALOT better chance and Nakatani wants to win but who knows?

What about Santiva or Animal Kingdom for Borel? I would also throw in Jaycito IF The Factor goes,if The Factor is out then Martin Garcia will ride Jaycito

Is there any possible way no horse wins the Derby? Can all 20 lose somehow?

I think he will be the fav, not by much though.

I know horses can often develop quickly between the end of their 2yo season and the Derby, but it is kinda disturbing that the fourth horse on your list was getting drubbed in a maiden race at Fair Grounds in December. Not that Archarcharch was that much more accomplished at the time, as six days later, he broke his maiden while beating three opponents in the Sugar Bowl.

Since Archarcharch was such an overlay, you must have really scored Drugs. If you didn't, then stop talking.

And if you really think Uncle Mo is 19% to win the Derby, you should find something else to do. He probably isn't 19% to run.

Thanks.

Is Lehman Brothers hiring?

Why did you friend me on Facebook? For the fast food reviews or the cock pics?

That reminds me...you still owe me porn.

Lehman Brothers is not hiring but I left before the collapse so it didn't really effect me other than the fact that I sold all my stock before it tanked.

I would befriend anyone on Facebook. Don't flatter yourself.

A-F-F-E-C-T

Thanks. What would I do without you.

I'll try not to.

Ok - I've lowered my revised line to 0.25% on Uncle Mo. Thanks for the critical heads up.