3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances
 

Starting with the Wood Memorial ... do not trust anyones speed figure for this race. Do not trust anyones pace figure for this race.

The_Fat_Man is no longer posting at Derby Trail - and one has to wonder if he's currently employed as the track superintendent at Aqueduct. In the first nine races today at AQU - all of which around one-turn - the leader after a half mile failed to win eight of them. Horses leading more than halfway through dirt races - often have a lot more success than that.

So far this Aqueduct meet - there have been just four dirt routes. Here is a recap of how the pacesetter has performed in each ....

* AQU Dirt Route #1 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Chairman Now
Previous Beyer: 82
Fractions: 25.22 - 50.60 - 1:15.37 (all uncontested)
Finish: 3rd at 7/5 odds in field of 5.

* AQU Dirt Route #2 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Understatement
Previous Beyer: 101
Fractions: 24.75 - 49.47 - 1:13.48 (all uncontested)
Finish: 3rd at 5/2 beaten double digit lengths in field of 5.

* AQU Dirt Route #3 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: All In No Outs
Previous Beyer: 82
Fractions: 26.29 - 53.33 - 1:18.85
Result: 2nd at 7/5 odds.

* AQU Dirt Route #4 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Uncle Mo
Previous Beyer: 89
Fractions: 23.49 - 47.98 - 1:12.28
Result: 3rd at 1/9 odds.


Uncle Mo's performance today looked incredibly pathetic. The pace LOOKED very slow ... but has to considered a lot faster than people think given the info posted above.

I'm of the opinion that a lack of fitness got Uncle Mo beat over that racetrack today. The Timely Writer was both a glorified workout and a 2-furlong horse race... Uncle Mo was truly running 1st off of the layoff today in my opinion. On a glib dirt track playing kind to speed (most all of them do) Uncle Mo wouldn't have got as dead-tired as he did. His lack of fitness was simply exposed today on what was a VERY demanding dirt track for front-end speed types going long.


As for the Santa Anita Derby .... the Beyer will come back 4 points higher than it will for First Dude's ALW win. It was a pretty damn decent race IMO.

Because Comma To The Top ran 4 points faster than First Dude - I won't knock him ... but I'm now in agreement with his connections to pass on the KY Derby. Perhaps they might look at a race like the Preakness (First Dude was a close 2nd in last years Preakness) - or just have a fresh horse for the summer. That was a true pace today - and he can stay 9fs no problems.

Midnight Interlude won a MSW race easily by 8+ lengths last out. He went 25 Beyer points faster than the days other two-turn route... however, a variant split resulted in him only getting a Beyer about 10 points faster. He proved himself a nice prospect today.

The 3rd and 4th place horses will find themselves on the earnings bubble - but both are capable of rating - and both would be legit candidates to get a piece at a price in the KY Derby.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 3.75%

What about Glickman?

Any horse connected to Pippy is a danger!

Your obvious bias and love for Joe Vann is unbecoming of you.

Castro thought he could have won the Bay Shore

I always thought Castro was an idiot.

Me too, and Ive never even met him.

I didn't like his ride on Glickman today, and neither did Pippy.

BRING BACK THE FAT MAN!

I need my Fat Charts

DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar

Hindsight.

I'm sure he is up all night trying to decide whether he should give a horse a 1% chance or a 0.8% chance.

I think I found The_Fat_Man. I was watching a replay of the Wood on YouTube, and I noticed this pearl in the comments section:

Uncle Mo has PLENTY of wins. I'm glad another horse had a chance to win. That said, I hope Mo and all the other horses came out sound and will try their best in the Derby.

Case closed. Glad I could help.

Looking at this list I just had a thought. Going by names alone, I hope Pants On Fire wins the Derby. Then wins the Preakness and then on to the Triple Crown. This would bring just as much attention to racing as Z did, if not more.

Can you just imagine the names of his offspring? OY!

Also, going into the Belmont someone would come up with a song, you know, like Pants On The Ground. It would be on YouTube and then a hit from there. Imagine the fun.

Pants would even get his own Blog and Facebook page.

Oh gosh, get this one. A big ad campaign like Know Mo. Only this one would be No Pants.

You see the potential here?

I prefer a big subtract campaign, but to each his own;)

fixed, thanks

Hindsight? Well, yes. How else do you resolve arguments than by looking at results? How do you learn anything other than by seeing what happens to your predictions? (and yes, I made my own prediction at the time of DrugS's earlier posts.)

The argument was about how much impact under-the-radar horses (those in DrugS's "Rest" group) would have on the Derby. I used 10 years of 'hindsight', aka data, to argue that those off-the-list horses would turn out to have a much greater chance of winning the Derby than the 5% chance that DrugS estimated. I suggested 10-15% as a more realistic figure, based on studying 10 years of KD Future Wager data. Now, less than a month later, DrugS's own figures put it at about 19%.

Please take a look at our posts in that thread:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41384

I respect DrugS's capping, or I wouldn't have bothered making such detailed posts in that thread. It takes some work to put together a coherent line like he's been doing. I'm sure his overall ability to rate the relative chances of the top 25-30 contenders is far better than anything I could come up with. My only issue with the first list was his significantly underestimating the chances of new contenders emerging from the pack. Now his revised line seems to confirm my position.

--Dunbar

The Factor is dubious going 10f's with his running style in the Derby, but he's the only horse maintaining any resemblance of consistent form that is triple digit figure worthy. Crazy year.

In light of yesterday's developments and Pletcher's comments after the Florida Derby, should odds be posted on R Heat Lightning (not that I would fancy her chances)?

Well - the percentages change as the information changes.

Lets look at the recent devlopments ...

* The Louisianna Derby was won by Pants on Fire with Nehro 2nd - one would have been about 30/1 if uncoupled - the other was that type of price.

* The Sunland Derby was won by a horse who ran for a Maiden Claiming tag recently at the current SA meet.

* The Spiral was won by a true synthetic horse who still has never run on dirt.

* The horse who unquestionably ran the best race in the Fla Derby - was trading at 250/1 odds on Betfair.

* The Ill Derby was pretty Ill.

* The SA Derby saw two morning line favorites scratch due to physical setbacks. The winner, recently won a maiden race.

* The Wood Memorial saw a 1/9 favorite go down in defeat.

* Some highly regarded horses have fallen to injuries.

Lets say the Arkansas Derby is run like truly the definitive Derby prep race - and two horses step up and run great races. A strong performance by The Factor - and just his precense itself in the KY Derby badly hurts Sheckleford's Derby chances. Couple that with a physical setback for Midnight Interlude - and all of a sudden you could be back at 5% again - or possibly even under.

It's a lot easier and less tricky doing these fair value % lines for actual races than it is for this - that's for sure. You're dealing with lightly raced 3yo's - at a time when trainers don't want to run their good horses. Hell, they don't even want to put the good 3yo's through halfway brisk workouts. I think Uncle Mo has what - two easy workouts of 5f - and none beyond that this year.

Certainly though - your opinion proved right so far.

Good analysis of the AQU main track at 2 turns. Also, the horses were running into a strong headwind when they turned for home.
That said, Mo should have been so far superior to that field that he should have won on class. I think he's been handled with kid gloves and not made tough by hard fought races. Going into the Derby I'd prefer a colt with a few hard fought losses that a glowing record of trouncing over matched fields. Mo however didn't run what I would call a hard fought loss on Sat. He had nothing and offered nothing.

That's why I think it is infinitely easier to play the lower levels of this sport nowadays than to play most graded stakes races. At the $20k claimer level the horses actually run, so there's some info to go on.
Has Mo regressed significantly and permanently from his 2yo form or is he just not in shape because of his schedule? Who the hell knows? And that's the case with a lot of "G1-caliber" horses these days. When they only run five times a year, it makes it awfully hard to figure out what one sub-par performance really means.

She's not nominated, I don't believe. But I have thought the same thing. If I owned her, I would strongly consider it.

She would get slaughtered

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

I think Soldat has one.

You're right, he does, but I was referring to "last out."

My point for what was once called (by some) "one of the best crops" ever, is now a pile of "huh?" I don't think anyone should be scared to enter.

Really? Really?!?!? Can you please post a link to someone calling this one of the best crops? I would love to see their other opinions.

I'm not going to call people out for having a bad opinion, because I've had many myself. But I did see it written (or a flavor of it) in more than one place, which is fine, because things change constantly in horse racing...

My point is that as of right now, this is not a tremendous group of horses, and no one should be hesitant to take a shot if they are in shouting distance in terms of ability.

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

Without question. Unfortunately he's got that zero graded earnings issue holding him back.

Whether or not anyone agrees with R Heat Lightning running in the Derby, fact of the matter is that it is very possible. Devil May Care, from the same stable, ran in the Derby last year as a late addition following the implosion of Eskendereya. Arguably, she had worse credentials than R Heat Lightning going in, and ended up running a decent race.

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

Fat Chart for the Wood.

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

Hardly.

Even if UM was done, I'd take Brethren or even that Joe Vann over her.

Joe Vann isn't TC nominated and wouldn't get in on earnings. Brethren is worthless. But still, R Heat Lightning can't win the Derby.

I sure wouldn't be affraid to go to the Preakness next with Bind.

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

Duca was the only other horse in the Wood Memorial 2nd off the layoff - and he had the exact same running style as Uncle Mo ...




You can say - well, he only won a maiden last out. But the horse who was 2nd in that maiden race came back and closed against a moderate pace and actually ran a pretty nice figure when 2nd in the Ill Derby next time out.

A horse like Arthur's Tale was making his 7th start at 8f or more - in a span of less than the last 7 months. He already had 3 two-turn route races under him this year... and he's been working steadily between races. He had a monumental 'fitness' and 'foundation' edge on Uncle Mo.

Toby's Corner also had 3 routes under his belt this year - unlike Uncle Mo - he had a 6f workout under his belt.... and I've liked Toby's Corner enough to keep posting odds for him to win the Derby every week - even though he had almost zero Graded earnings this week and only had one race to try and get it.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

No. I was joking. The only race I've seen of R Heat Lightning's was the Davona Dale.

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

By the way, the most productive race on the Derby trail (albeit with the advantage of position on the calendar) was the Count Fleet. Should be a Grade 3 next year.