2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)
 

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1

1. Anthony’s Cross, 30-1
2. Astrology, 30-1
3. Brethren, 15-1
4. Clubhouse Ride, 50-1
5. Comma to the Top, 20-1
6. Decisive Moment, 50-1

7. Dialed In, 10-1
8. Gourmet Dinner, 30-1
9. Indian Winter, 50-1
10. J P’s Gusto, 20-1
11. Jaycito, 20-1
12. Machen, 30-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, 30-1
14. Rogue Romance, 30-1
15. Santiva, 30-1
16. Silver Medallion, 20-1
17. Soldat, 20-1
18. Stay Thirsty, 30-1

19. Sweet Ducky, 50-1
20. The Factor, 20-1
21. Tiz Blessed, 30-1
22. To Honor and Serve, 10-1
23. Uncle Mo, 9-2
24. Mutuel field (all others), 5-2


KDFW LIVE ODDS

Sweet Ducky 50/1 and Dailed In 10/1 what were they like 2 lengths apart?

That's a pretty accurate line on those two Freddy.

Rogue Romance at 30-1 is interesting indeed

Rogue Romance's morning line is irrelevant - he runs on Saturday and betting doesn't close until around mid-day Sunday.

If he wins impressively - his price will come way down. If he runs a dud he'll take almost no money in the final 24 hours of the bet.

I hear ya. Should be an interesting race Saturday.

I find betting on Bodog at Fixed Odds just prior to a horses prep is the way to do it. Of course my 100-1 on Tapizar isn't looking so good. Think Repole will pay me off not to bet Uncle Moe?

Field will be 6-5 or less?

I don't think it should be and it probably won't be.

I actually thought that with Mo being such a strong early favorite, the field might end up around 2-1, but that's probably too high.

I guess CD (or whoever) still hasn't been able to justify spending the cash to update the tote system to allow for more than 23 individual horses. I can't imagine it could be that hard.

Kentucky Derby Pool #1 PP's
 

thanks!

Of the 23....only 10 look like they have a prayer.

Strong Contender:

Uncle Mo

Somewhat of a contender:

To Honor And Serve
Silver Medallion
Dialed In

Marginal chance:

Clubhouse Ride
Mucho Macho Man (juice trainer would help)

X Factor:

Jaycito
The Factor
Machen
Soldat

I dont think your marginal chance horses have a prayer. I dont get Silver Medallion at all. Your other 7 are all strong.

Look at who trains Silver Meds. 99.8% of his horses are much, much better on dirt than turf or synthetic.

I know this. I was recently reading your old posts about Rachel and how she had no chance in the Classic because of his stats on synthetic surfaces. I get all that. I just dont think the horse is much horse. He was not on my radar before and winning that race against that competition does not change my mind.

15-1 on Brethen....OMG

I think the only possible value on this list could be Jaycito.

Uncle Mo should be 2/1 to win the race, and 8/1 to make the race.

THAS is a serious animal who is about to do some serious things.

I'm curious as to why you think THAS is only somewhat of a contender that you lumped in with basically a grass horse?

He's #2 because he's not as good as Uncle Mo - and he has a very similar style of running.

The horses who thrive in the Kentucky Derby fall into two profiles:

1.) They simply prove themselves a better route horses than anyone else in the field

2.) They are horses with deep closing running styles who pick up the pieces while superior horses to them are pushing the reset button at the 5/16ths pole. (Ice Box, Pioneer of the Nile, Denis of Cork, Giacomo, and Steppenwolfer have all been in the trifecta since 2005)


Steve Asmussen would be lucky if he could have got Rachel Alexandra to win an alw race on a synthetic track when she was 3.

Oh, I understand why he's #2 - although I'm not conceding anything to Uncle Mo, esp. since neither horse has run at 3. I'm expecting Mo to be very good, but I also have enormous confidence in THAS. Misplaced? Who knows, lol - I've been wrong before.

I've seen some polls with Dialed In on top; I love Mineshaft and I like the horse a lot, but he's always going to be at the mercy of the pace.

It's never closed that low, Randall. I'm pretty sure that last year's 3-2 is the lowest ever.

--Dunbar

Could be the year

No freaking way the field sets a new record low price for round 1.

This could very well be the time that the fave is an individual horse and not the field.

Zero chance of that

Not really. It will be tight.

Zero

Repole should have you shot.

The horse will probably Colic tonight and die, thanks to you.

To Honor and Serve isn't owned by Repole.

F

U

He is a legend in his own mind.

Oh, I thought Joey black cloud misspelled That's.

If you wager on these future pools, the value could be Anthony's Cross, Astrology, Machen, and/or Soldat.

A. Cross = if he runs very well 1st or 2nd in the SA Derby
Astrology = if he runs as good as he has when he comes back.
Machen = if he don't run that good this w/e, but stays on the trail and runs
good later on.
Soldat = if he runs very well @ FOY.

I expect the odds to go down the closer we get to the Derby if they run good
later on.

I wouldn't touch any of these at 40-1 or less. I'd need 100-1 on Astrology.

I think the ALL OTHERS pool would look a lot better if the Southwest ran on Saturday instead of Monday. At least that way, you could see if someone like Elite Alex, Arch Arch Arch or Alternation has any kind of potential.

Regardless, if I wanted to throw $20 down on the FIELD at probable odds of 2-1, I would just pick up a form and bet a race that's going off in 5 minutes, rather than 85 days from now.

I would take him over Anthonys Cross.

Like the 2 War Front horses. Won't play this bet though. Didn't like either winner of the last 2 Derbies. So, why play this?