136th Kentucky Oaks (PP's)
 

136th Kentucky Oaks (PP's)

Grade 1, $584,300 Kentucky Oaks

1 It's Tea Time Alan Garcia (15-1)
2 Jody Slew Miguel Mena (30-1)
3 Quiet Temper Robby Albarado (10-1)
4 Age of Humor Rajiv Maragh (30-1)
5 Blind Luck Rafael Bejarano (6-5)
6 Beautician Alex Solis (15-1)
7 Crisp Joel Rosario (8-1)
8 Tidal Pool Calvin Borel (8-1)
9 Bella Diamante Mike Smith (30-1)
10 Champagne d'Oro Martin Garcia (30-1)
11 Evening Jewel Kent Desormeaux (10-1)
12 Ailalea John Velazquez (15-1)
13 Amen Hallelujah Julien Leparoux (8-1)
14 Joanie's Catch Paco Lopez (30-1)

All starters carry 121 pounds.

Excluded: Seeking the Title.

Romans sure didn't sound like SI will go from your talk the other day.

That's why she's in italics. I was about to text him actually. She looked OK yesterday.

Would Switch run for sure if she got in?

Dale Romans has taken Sassy Image OUT of consideration for the Kentucky Oaks. With Devil May Care and Sassy Image out of Friday's standard, CHAMPAGNE D'ORO (Guillot) and AGE OF HUMOR (Maker) are added to the starting gate...

Gracias.

I've been trying to handicap this race in earnest and I'm having a very difficult time liking anyone except Blind Luck.

Quiet Temper ran a good race in the Silverbulletday but had a dream trip in the FG Oaks and barely got by the stretching out Champagne d'Oro. I can't see her moving forward enough to win a race like this. Champagne d'Oro is a decent horse but she's going to have to go with Tidal Pool early and that should cook both.

I don't want any part of Evening Jewel, who got away with murder in the Ashland and also got the best of it in the Las Virgenes and still lost. I wouldn't bet Crisp with someone else's money as she got the perfect setup in the SA Oaks and barely legged it out over All Due Respect.

It's Tea Time moving forward on dirt seems unlikely even though I think she ran the best race of anyone in the Ashland. Her full brother Home Fries recently earned his 11th consecutive loss in a maiden claimer at Keeneland and his lone dirt race at CD last year was far from inspiring. I think she could be an Oaks filly but it is more likely to be the American than the Kentucky.

Amen Hallelujah might have distance limitations but stands to get the right kind of trip if she can sit behind the pace and get the jump. N1X eligible Beautician has been mishandled and elicits no confidence from me. It's a mighty big leap of faith to expect Ailalea to somehow be right in this spot as she's been positively dreadful in both of her starts this year.

I could see Seeking the Title as moderately interesting but she's on the outside looking in at the moment.

NT

This could be the easiest cold exacta of the year...Blind Luck and Tidal Pool. The 2 best and fastest fillies in the race. No reason banging your head aganist a wall in a race this simple.

I don't see how Tidal Pool is going to get "hooked" and "cooked" early. Tidal Pool is a very handy filly from her PPs who can really be readily placed wherever in the field, and be a threat. She can come from off it, stalk from close range, or take the initiative, and she'll have the services of Borel which is a big time positive. No other filly in this race is in the same stratosphere as Blind Luck or Tidal Pool in terms of ability and speed figures.

Seeking The Title has more upside, but Sheer Beauty (who is even more on the outside looking in) arguably ran a better race in the FG Oaks. Sheer Beauty is an interesting horse. She won two her three starts when she flashed early speed, but then when she gets taken back early in the FG Oaks, she runs her best race yet.

I like ailalea if the price is right. I think she had valid excuses in both of those losses this year. She is bred to go this trip and there could be some pace.

What do you guys think her price will be?

I hear you. At the same time, she has never won a race where she didnt have the lead by the 2nd call. When has she shown the ability to come from off the pace?

I am not even looking for Tidal Pool to win...it's going to be about pressing the Blind Luck-Tidal Pool straight exacta big time here. No other filly can run as fast as either one of those. Tidal Pool ran pretty good at the FG when coming from way back, albiet she got ran down by Jody Slew, but it's quite clear Tidal Pool has moved forward off that effort and improved whereas Jody Slew has not gotten any better. I expect Tidal Pool to get a perfect trip here on the rail just off the pace, make her run and get run down by Blind Luck in the last 1/8th of a mile.

what are the valid excuses besides being a little wide early last time?

She was way wide (like 6-8 wide on both turns) at fair grounds which was not the place to be for most of the meet. I think Drugs put some pretty interesting stats up (i will have to find them) about how hard it was to win being wide there. On top of that, i don't know if she wanted to be that close up going two turns. Regardless, she still only lost by 5 lengths.

she wasnt 6-8 wide on both turns. i get that she will probably be more effective off the pace. but she seemed pretty headstrong last time.

How wide would you say she was?

4 wide 1st turn, maybe 4 or 5 wide 2nd turn.

the other negative to me is she was one of the only pletcher stakes horses not really running well the last few months. ive probably talked her into the win here :D so good luck with your oaks wagers.

Would love for her to get in -- I think she's got a ton of upside.

good luck to you as well. Blind Luck will be tough to beat.

It's no secret that I think Blind Luck is very good. She's shown the ability to run against the setup, something none of the other fillies in the race have demonstrated. In fact, there are quite a few that need a perfect setup to win.

If I didn't know that Blind Luck was so good, I'd bet Tidal Pool off her last race. Off that race, she's the play as she got the worst of it and Blind Luck got a perfect trip. The problem, of course, is that Blind Luck has shown she can run over horses when she doesn't get the setup in her favor.

Blind Luck

Is there any way she floats up to 5/2 or dare say 3-1?

No chance. 9/5 at the highest IMO.

I'm just hoping the 100,000 women at the track today like horses with different names :)

I know exactly what you are saying. I just think that even if she floated up to 5/2 somehow, anybody with a brain would be pounding her back down to 9/5 with late $$.

very true. I wonder if I still should throw some money down on her at 9/5 or just play her in an exacta with Tidal Pool. I'm using both horses in an Oaks / Derby double & hoping a pricey horse scores in the Derby.

That pretty much the only way to make $ in the oaks this year IMO!

Anyone else interested to see what It's Tea Time can do with the added distance and her first race on dirt?

Should be an interesting race for her -- I wouldn't be surprised to see her get up into the money.

Yeah I hear ya. I've got Tidal Pool at 23-1, so I'm just going to ride it out even though I believe Blind Luck is a clear standout.

I have an Oaks Future bet on Jody Slew. So I'll be hoping that the 7th place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks was caused by the problem she had a couple of weeks before the race.

I'll guess Crisp will move up on dirt today, double digits.

94 Beyer for the winner.

Oh good...now we know the horsey really did win.