A question for all of you planning to bet Sidney's Candy
 

Hopefully we can get a little discussion going about individual Derby horses but can all of you who are planning to bet Sidney's Candy tell me if you think he's suddenly going to decide to rate. Or do you think he's going to be the speed of the speed?

I ask because since he's become the morning darling his price is steadily decreasing and I can't come up with any plausible scenario where he wins this race even with who's slated to run as of now.

NT

This is an intriguing horse. He stumbled at the gate last out, yet never fought the jock early, and, basically, took the lead by default. Talamo neither asked nor restrained him. This indicates SC can basically do whatever you ask him to.

Then, on the turn, when the others are running at him (or trying to), he's basically sitting chilly, while ACCELERATING. Talamo then needlessly goes to the whip the 2nd of two successive accelerating qtrs, but the race was easily over at that point. So, it really wasn't a question of needing to put him under pressure because he was quitting or threatened.

This is a very dangerous horse. If he's able to rate, you know at some point he's going to try to break the race open. If nothing goes with him, he's home. Who really can run with this horse the 5th and 6th splits?

I personally think they are going to rate. It's only a gut feeling. But one I think Sadler and Talamo are confident in the horse. When that happens sometimes the get cute and take a horse out of his element. Even though he has had the lead in his last two, he doesn't shoot out of the gate, ala Line of David in his last three races. I don't know if this rating will work or not. I'm leaning no, because most horses are not that versatile. But any horse that can wire three in a row on Poly gets my attention. I think what he has done out west would merit strong consideration, if you could take out about three e and e/p types in the Derby.

I think it's possible he can rate too..........He never seems like he rushes to do anything or pulls too hard. He has just has been faster than everyone else so far. If he rates he has a descent shot but he will probably only be about 7 or 8-1.

I don't think he's headstrong, but I don't know how he will react if others are kicking dirt in his face either. I wish I had a piece of that last future pool wager at 26-1, but I'm not enthusiastic about him at 8-1.

I think it was Steve Haskins that mentioned that even in the races where he goes to the lead, he closes with the same fractions as the closers - for instance he came home in 35 3/5ths in the SA Derby on the lead. That's going to be near impossible to beat if he gets a decent draw and a clean break.... I know the ride on LaL that day was dreadful, and if he had had an opportunity to contend that day we'd all have learned something more tangible... but still I've gotta use him

He closed well because he was given a slow- easy lead. The question he must answer is how he will finish with a half in 46. Even if he rates a few lengths off, he is likely to cover the first half in 2 seconds faster than his previous wins.

I do think he will rate.

For what it's worth... his work this morning was excellent.

I didn't think his work this AM bodes as well for his ability to rate as most do.

Assuming horses will rate effectively is a big mistake.

Assuming any horse will do something professionally on Derby Day is always a question.

I agree, he looked like he was carrying his head higher like he was climbing the whole time he was behind his work mate, he only relaxed when he passed him and looked like he was being asked to finish up.

From the DRF: "Sidney's Candy has a quarter crack patch on the inside of his right front hoof, but Sadler said the patch is several months old."

Has anyone heard about this before today? This is news to me... although a 6f work in 1:11 isn't too bad with a patched quarter crack :rolleyes:

thats the question for this horse and the favorite. both prep races were slow paces. this makes a good horse look like a hero. the derby will have the usual desparate types that throw down the gaunlet early. this sometimes discourages horses that have had their own way or causes bad trips for the faves. don't people understand that this is how the giacomos and mine that birds win this race? it changes a little from year to year and who knows what the track will be like. but many years the first tier is dead and the race falls apart at the turn. even big brown and barbaro backed off a little and they were not closers. borail has won two derbies this way in the last three years. i would not bet that horse(candy) at under 12-1. counting on these front runners to suddenly rate is usually a loser in this race, the odds have to be worth the risk. the war emblem type wins are few and far between. monarchos is the last horse to break the 2 minute mark and he came from downtown too. i know, i still have a bellamy road ticket i saved from 5 years ago. its worth diddley. he got to jog around and beat up lesser at a slow pace, a little dirt in the face and some tussle changes the game.

So he's going to be around 7/2 now?

Baffert & Lucky with be the choice now.....IMO ;)

No one......if you think "chalk" will be in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, I'm "backing" my original two - Sidney's Candy & Ice Box.....you go with who paid you well! ;)

Last night I couldn't answer the original question. I am betting him because he will be the best horse in the race, he is the fastest if Sadler wants him to be and I am confident he can rate.

If you win... I win. I'm on the same two plus one wild card yet to be determined.

That leaves me with American Lion and Stately Victor :eek:

I don't think he can overcome the post.

Ill book all win bets on this piece and ill give 10-1, who wants some?????:D

he has to be as good as big brown was to win from post 20. is he?

if you look at his pps, he needs to be in 1st going into that first turn or he's done. so i hope everyone bets on him so i can reap the rewards.

add to it that he has never raced on dirt.

I'll take $10 bucks worth. Do you have paypal ?

yep

Great, done deal. Send me the $100 and if he loses I'll send you back $112.50 to cover your paypal takeout.

I think I would be more comfortable if you gave me the 10 first. Im not sending you a hundred bucks, I don't know you. Ill tell you what, im a man of my word, if you just want to do a cyber handshake we got ourselves a deal. My hands extended.

And if this thing wins money will be in your paypal my first access to a comp.

Ok against my better judgement I'll make the bet. Cyber handshake.

Deal, hey and I may have fibbed about the money going in right on Sat night, I haven't used my paypal in a while and just checked it out, it says 3-5 business days to fund my account from my bank account so it may take a few days to go through. If you still want in let me know. If so PM me your email associated with the account and ill send you mine

No problem. My checkcard should be an instant transfer. Wait until the race is run then we'll exchange.

No he doesn't.

You can't really think it's that black and white.

That's been more of a positive angle than a negative one in this year's Derby preps.

I'm coming around to Sidney's Candy. Every year after 2007, I tell myself that I'm not going to get suckered into betting horses who prep on poly, but after the way Line of David ran in Arkansas, and even Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel, I dont' see any reason why Sidney's Candy can't win this thing. He's way more likely than 75 percent of the field.

A sealed race track--IF that is what he gets--may suit him.

BTW, ateam - I think it might be time to resurrect this blog.

I'm loving how many people are getting onto Sidney's Candy. I'll be here to eat a big pile of crow if he loses.

NT

If you like Sidney's Candy , I would recommend watching the 2nd race at Santa Anita on 12/30/09, Sidney missed the break, tried to rate behind the leaders, made a 3-wide menacing move on the turn and flattened out. If he can't rate successfully at 3-5 in a 6 furlong race it's hard to imagine him doing it successfully at 1 1/4 miles from the extreme outside post. He just hasn't shown a willingness to pass horses.

From a pedigree standpoint, there's enough precedent set from Candy Ride's offspring to guess he will like the dirt being he is also out of a Storm Cat mare. From a value, running style and 1st time dirt point of view, how low is low on him?

I just thought about it the other day but it's too late. Maybe after the Derby. :D

Why would you eat crow if he loses ?