DOWNS DAWN PATROL (4/21): Lookin at Lucky sparkles..
 

Quick hit to start off the morning as LOOKIN AT LUCKY turns in 'one of those' Derby works. Absolutely inhaled workmate Broken Tango on the turn en route to these sharp splits: :12.1, :24.0, :35.3, :47.4, :59.3, 1:12.0, 1:24.4 and the mile in 1:39.2. Baffert will be a chatty Cathy the rest of the morning...

ESKENDEREYA made his first appearance on the track and it will likely be reported that he looked 'stiff' barely jogging once around the oval...

Will report on uninspiring HOMEBOY KRIS work later...

SIDNEY'S CANDY was out and looks happy and energetic bouncing and skipping while out for a light jog...

More later...

Not surprised by Esken's condition.

Be careful with this word.

I am all about trying to beat Esky, but he just got there yesterday from his long ship from FL, and it is a new track for him. Lets calm down until later in the week.

So did a lot of horses who didn't look that way

Stiff can be taken care of pretty easily, other things like a quarter crack, not so much. He'll be fine race day.

(and don't come at me about my love for this horse because I am not using him in the top slot at all, period)

It's okay, he's been perpetuating the idea that Eskendereya is injured since he crossed the wire in the Wood.

I don't mean to sound like an azzhole when I say this but I usually take all of these workout reports with a grain of salt.

NT

As others have said on here before, he runs that Wood race again and it is all over, but it was very very fast (neg 3 on TG's, 3 pt top) and it could have taken its toll.

Eskendereya simply did a light jog around the track... There's nothing to glean from it. He just went around without any 'action' or stride. Pletcher has his routine for his horses. He'll do more tomorrow and more each day as he moves towards a scheduled weekend work.

Without knowing these horses personally yourself it's hard to know what's normal or not for them, last week Gary Stevens said Lucky looked exhausted and looked like he hated the track, but unless you see these horses everyday and know their personalities we're all just guessing, my very best Champion show horse used to throw a complete **** fit in the warm up ring before classes, if she DIDN'T, I knew she wasn't on her game, it was the way she put on her game face.

I dont know if it was rider error in the last race but he looked fast on the poly but was having trouble in traffic and last time I checked there was ALOT more traffic in the Derby than a 10 horse race.

That is my biggest fear is he gets stuck behind a horse or 2 that start dropping and starts checking up as other stalkers and ICE BOX go flying by

Hey Steve, how'd Conveyance look? He had an ultra fast work as well.

I'll be the first to admit I don't get this blinkers off/blinkers on stuff with Lookin at Lucky. He pulled very hard in the Hollywood Futurity without blinkers, seemed to relax perfectly in the Rebel, now they're taking them off. If this horse is too aggressive early in the Derby he'll get scorched.

NT

IC,

I didn't get a good enough look at Conveyance's work to comment. The new challenge here is all the Derby/Oaks workers out on track at the same time, and I was following Homeboy Kris finishing and then Lookin at Lucky breaking off. Conveyance got lost in the shuffle working in front of Kris. Mike Welsch will have the report on Conveyance, and I heard one of the clockers say he didn't go as well as he had in his first spin here.

EDIT: Just spoke to Welsch. His video analysis is being sent in to DRF now, so watch for it, but he said that Conveyance's effort your typical 'fast horse working fast'. He added as I mentioned that the CD clockers thought he was a bit better the other day because even though he went slower, he was much more relaxed than in today's bullet. Baffert told Welsch he wasn't unhappy with the work, but didn't really want him going that fast.

sounds like Kickin' N Screamin' :)

Come on, Nick. This horse have never won a race in which it didn't get a better trip than the winner. This is your quintessential opportunistic runner. The problem, of course, is that he's just not good enough to run the most and win. Hell, he couldn't win even if he ran in a race where he got an equal trip to the other contenders. He's got 3 wins in matchups with Noble's Promise and the latter got the worst of it all 3 times. He runs well in the Derby if a handful of other horses don't fire or get bad trips. This PLUG is a toss for me.

I think Stately Victor has a shot here of finishing in the top 5.

Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.

I know this is going to come up numerous times between now and the Derby but how much do you really think that cost him in that race? It is one thing that the horse stayed up and all but literally he lost very, very little ground. He was then able to take advantage of Noble's Promise and Dublin making premature moves to basically collapse the race and that's what TFM is getting at (I think).

As far as the SA Derby his trouble was obviously enough to end his chances of winning but I'm very confident that he was not going to catch Sidney's Candy even if he stayed free of trouble.

NT

Agree he wasn't going to catch Candy who was gone behind the soft pace. I also don't think he was primed for either race. To me the biggest positive that can be gleaned from these efforts is the horse's toughness and competitiveness. A lot of top horses would mail it in under similar circumstances...so on paper you have a horse who's top dirt figure compares to all but one, you know he has the right style, trainer, and competitiveness for this kind of race. In a race where trouble is the norm, those things count for a lot.

I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.

Every time it happens it's different but the amount that Gomez had to compensate for the actual occurrence was minimal, he did a great job and the horse is athletic. The difference between his heel clipping in the Rebel and when he was shut off in the SA Derby is gigantic.

NT

His loss of ground in the Rebel wasn't huge as you say, but it appeared he did have momentum and was unwinding to go by others when it happened. Actual loss maybe a length or two, but that's not the real story. Just my opinion.

Here's what I suggest. Seriously. Get a track bike and head over to your local park or velodrome. Hook up with a peloton and position yourself behind and between a pack of cyclists. Note how much easier your trip is when you're drafting as opposed to when you're going without cover. Sooner or later you'll get cut off, be forced to 'check'. If you're behind/between, and it's during a 'break', you'll be surprised how it doesn't really matter, as you're:

1) still being carried along by the draft
2) able to make up whatever difference was lost easily, as those breaking before you have only a finite amount of energy and they've used it before you.

In fact, 'checking' is an ADVANTAGE in these cases.

If you're outside and not drafting, and you're dropped because you're forced to check, it's a lot harder to make up. Of course, it really depends on how intense the 'break' was. If they went too hard, you still have an advantage -- especially if the 'race' collapses and favors late runners.

If you're going to remark that cycling is not horse racing, I will point you to Mr Dominguez and how he rides them like track bikes.

P.S. The reason this isn't obvious is because of the BIAS on dirt tracks. DIRT goes against PHYSICS.

dirt goes against physics?

Every since your clever prognostication from November 9, 2006, I always pay careful attention to your opinions on Derby contenders....

Nothing like going back 4 years for effect....I did choose Hard Spun in said Derby. I also said I was obviously dead wrong about Street Sense at the time as well. Some horses you get right, some you get wrong. When you finish in the Top 50 in the national tourney like I have you let me know Andy.

Don't Crush that Dwarf
Hand Me The Pliers

:eek:

OMG!

Top 50? You want a lollipop?

OMG!

:D

Seriously, I tend to take things way too far most of the time, but touting top 50 on something is absurd.

I'll take you on

you just name the place





























teasing

He hardly needs me to defend him, but seriously? You think your handicapping accomplishments > his? What channel can I catch you on again?

Apparently you forget how one gets their....My winning total in NY is still the highest total ever in 20 contests in their history and I am still the youngest person to ever win one of their tournaments as well. But ok Scavs.

Its not about accomplishments at all in fact its about money. And you don't make money in this game routinely betting favorites. I took a stand on a horse 4 years ago and was wrong. If Andy had more of a life he wouldn't be digging up 4 year old posts. Says more about him than me but whatev.

Ok, so you swallowed a horse shoe and **** gold, congrats on the moons aligned for a day.

That must be it.

It is it, when you get one of these let me know.

And as to the wrap issue, it is my fault for not paying attention to Nafzger/Wilkes horses who almost always wear wraps, therefore it is a non-issue. Quite different from trainers who rarely use them...As to the neg 2 at the time, still the highest fig for a 2 year old who came back to be a champ 3 yr old. He was surely the exception....