OAKS NOTES: Contenders (PP's-Post #26)
 

Most of the attention this time of the year is on the Derby, and rightly so, but i am really excited about the Oaks this year. Looks like a nice field of fillies shaping up. Besides Blind Luck who is a deserving favorite, who does everyone like?

Devil May Care is the filly to beat IMO.
I like the lightly raced filly who ran second in the Ashland, it sounds like shes going to the Oaks. It will be first time dirt and she will have to improve but I think shes going to be really good.

I like Devil May Care as well, her Bonnie Miss was impressive and she is definately gonna enjoy the dirt more than some others. Negligee and Beautician both ran so poorly in the Ashland it will be interesting to see if they try the race.

I don't think any other horse has a chance to win the Oaks other than Blind Luck or Tidal Pool, as Blind Luck is probably the best horse in the race, whereas I think Tidal Pool is just as good as Devil May Care and Tidal Pool has the more favorable running style and I think may be better when she's able to have something to run at compared to being on the lead.

Problem with Devil May Care is that she made the last move in a multi-move race. Now, people can bet her expecting that she, once again, gets a perfect trip. Of course, the problem with that is Blind Luck is a much better closer, having demonstrated that she can close against the grain, and would eat DMC up if the race were to collapse (or otherwise).

DMC could sit the catbird trip and get jump on Blind Luck if anyone runs with Tidal Pool, I like TP myself, but to say they are both better then DMC is really simply not true. I think the more accurate comment would be that those 3 are the top 3 contenders right now, and no one else is really close.

I think Blind Luck is going to win the Oaks rather easily.

NT

I think her lifetime high Beyer is almost as high as yours.

NT

i think thats wrong too, Blind Luck is very good but not unbeatable. I like the vibe though that spells great odds on some other talented performers. I have never been much of a Quiet Temper fan but she scares me some as a longshot contender.

See, I don't see Tidal Pool as a front runner...I see her best scenario when she can track something...I think because it was a very short field last time Borel put her on the lead...I fully expect a bit of a different trip from Borel in the Oaks, by sitting just off the flank of someone, much like her Oaklawn allowance win.

Bickersons.

really?

I'm not so sure Bickersons ( who won't even be in the race - IC was kidding ) has less of a chance than the horse who finished second in the Ashland.

I love it when people take me seriously to half seriously when I say something absurd like that.

As for the Ashland, my thoughts are that the runnerup will get way overbet coming out of that awful race, but I'm a little surprised that the only positive talk she's getting here is coming from PG1985.

Hmm, nevermind.

Amen Hallelujah
Blind Luck
Champagne D'Oro
Devil May Care
Evening Jewel
It's Tea Time
Joanie's Catch
Quiet Temper
Seeking the Title
Sheer Beauty
Tidal Pool

Thanks Steve, i was hoping you would weigh in! You always make me think and you have done it again LOL - Champagne D'Oro?? I actually started this thread because on the Oaks website i saw that none of the 5 handicappers....Byrne, Asher...et al listed She Be Wild in their top ten but 2 of them had Champagne D'Oro listed. Now you have her at number 3 so i have to go back and see what i am missing. She Be Wild really not in your top 10? Also, i love that you have Joanie's Catch listed, how fun would be to own a horse that always tries that hard? She is going to win a big one one day. BTW, thanks for your show and this website, it takes a lot of effort on your part and we all appreciate it.

Nothing. The horses are listed in alphabetical order.

Its Tea Time...
Blind Luck will be overbet, but is the one to beat. With the memory of Rachel's devastating Oaks only one year ago, a lot of the casual goers will be looking for a favorite to jump all over.

thanks parsix, i noticed that after i clicked submit - what can i say, i'm from tennesseee. i blame the schools! LOL

Joanies Catch will run second at a very fat price

She Be Wild and dirt are probably not a good combination.

Paul

In the Florida Stallion Series she may run second, although it won't be at a fat price. In this group against Blind Luck, Devil May Care, Tidal Pool, and Amen Hallelujah, Joanies Catch has about a 0% chance of running second.

Thanks, Steve!

That was a good call by McPeeked to send Beautician to the Ashland.

NT

She's had 18 starts!! That's a career (& more for most these days!) she's 16 for 18 ITM so using her in the Tri's seems reasonable to me.
I agree she appears a cut below several of these though.

I agree she is a cut below, but she always seems to find a way into second place

Hey, I'm with you... I won't be leaving her off my tickets.

Oaks looking packed
 

Churchill Downs officials are expecting an overflow cast for the April 30 Kentucky Oaks, with the 14-horse limit surely having to be invoked.

As of Wednesday, these are the fillies who would make the cutoff for the Grade 1, $500,000 Oaks based on graded earnings: Ailalea, Amen Hallelujah, Beautician, Blind Luck, Crisp, Devil May Care, Evening Jewel, It's Tea Time, Joanie's Catch, Jody Slew, Quiet Temper, Sassy Image, She Be Wild, and Tidal Pool. The connections of another five or six fillies say they want in if possible.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112166.html

She be Wild?

Dude, I just read she suffered a fracture and is out of the Oaks.

why do they limit the oaks to 14, but let 20 in the derby?

just guessing, but maybe because the run to the turn is only a few seconds going 9 furlongs?

She Be Wild injured - will miss the Oaks
 

Bummer....

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...m_medium=email

If you ask Scuds, I'm sure he'll tell you it's a plot by the fillies to get the males to work harder (or cull the males), so they can breed themselves to the fittest prospective stallions.

After all, thoroughbreds were a creation of the Arabs, and stuff like this is why Muslim men need to keep the women down.

I'm really surprised you'd be so stupid to not realize this on your own.

On second thought, your question is most likely a disingenuous attempt to deflect suspicion away from some nefarious plot you are hatching out.

I now just have to figure out what your evil womanly game is.

lol

no, i was actually asking a serious question...but the answers i'm getting are better than what the real reason might be!

Uh huh, suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuurrre you are.

hope the horse recovers and can run again. There goes one future wager.

Just wondering. There is a possiblity that I can get off and make a run down 65 to Churchill for the Oaks Day card. Would I be able to get tickets? Is there a general admission and would I be able to get a spot to sit down?
Any thoughts would help.