'09 Preps VS '10 Preps - Beyers to this point..
 

Ky Derby Trail:

Cal Derby:
2010: Ranger Heartley 78
2009: Chocolate Candy 87

San Rafael:
2010: Conveyance 91
2009: The Pampelmousse 96

Pasco:
2010: Uptowncharliebrown 88
2009: Musket Man 92

Lecomte:
2010: Ron The Greek 90
2009: Friesan Fire 94

Holy Bull:
2010: Winslow Homer 91
2009: Saratoga Sinner 98

Whirlaway:
2010: Peppi Knows 86
2009: Haynesfield 90

Bob Lewis:
2010: Caracortado 98
2009: Pioneer of the Nile 98

Sam Davis:
2010: Rule 98
2009: General Quarters 102

San Vincente:
2010: Sidney's Candy 95
2009: Evita Argentina 87

Risen Star:
2010: Discreetly Mine 94
2009: Friesan Fire 97

El Camino Real Derby:
2010: Connemara 83
2009: Chocolate Candy 94

Fountain of Youth:
2010: Eskendereya 106
2009: Quality Road 113

Southwest:
2010: Conveyance 97
2009: Old Fashioned 92

Hutchenson:
2010: D' Funnybone 99
2009: Capt Candyman Can 96

Battaglia Memorial:
2010: Vow To Wager 74
2009: Proceed Bee 83

Gotham:
2010: Awesome Act 98
2009: I Want Revenge 113

Sham:
2010: Alphie's Bet 86
2009: The Pampelmousse 107

Of the 17 preps run so far - 13 have come back slower than last years edition - 3 have come back faster - and 1 has come back the same.

The largest gap is the 21 point margin in favor of the '09 edition of the Sham Stakes. The Pampelmousse ran almost 12 lengths faster than Alphie's Bet. In fact - Take The Points, 2nd beaten 6 lengths in the '09 Sham, was almost 6 lengths faster than Alphie's Bet.

The largest gap in favor of a '10 edition prep race was the 8 points Sidney's Candy has on Evita Argentina in the San Vincente.


KY oaks preps:

Santa Ysabel:
2010: Crisp 81
2009: Century Park 80

Santa Ynez:
2010: Amen Hallelujha 93
2009: Alpha Kitten 90

Las Virgenes:
2010: Blind Luck 88
2009: Stardom Bound 85

Forward Gal:
2010: Bickersons 97
2009: Frolic's Dream 90

Martha Washington:
2010: Decelerator 82
2009: Rachel Alexandra 100

Silverbulletday:
2010: Jody Slew 86
2009: War Echo 96

Davona Dale:
2010: Amen Hallelujah 100
2009: Justwhistledixie 96

Santa Anita Oaks:
2010: Crisp 82
2009: Stardom Bound 86


Of the 8 Oaks preps runs so far - 5 from 2010 have been faster.

The biggest margin is the 18 point gap Rachel Alexandra has in the Martha Washington. Afleet Deciet was 2nd beaten 8 lengths - and she ran faster in defeat than the winner of this years edition.

Odd.

My top two choices for this years derby have run 2 of the 3 higher than last years figure for the respective races. The other one, the horse you love, I can't stand for the derby.

I don't know what it all means, but I do think people have been a bit harsh on last years group. I thought they were a decent group overall, but the decimation from injuries made it look like a pretty weak crop.

Yeah. The trio of Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and The Pampelmousse just towered over everything else.

Too bad they started dropping like flies. The Pampelmousse didn't even make the SA Derby after his killer Sham win. Quality Road won the FL Derby despite having minor feet issues going into the race - issues that became major after it. And I Want Revenge, who inherited the role as a stone cold - need to fall down to lose - cinch to win the Kentucky Derby was a morning scratch.

Interesting that of the 3 'faster' races, 2 came in sprints: San Vincente and Hutch.

by preps do you mean the two races they run before the derby months apart?

Good stuff, DrugS. I've been arguing elsewhere that there's good reason for the "All Others" in Pools 1 & 2 to be lower odds than other years, aside from the fact that the odds will naturally be depressed after producing 2 straight years of Derby winners.

IMO, your data shows that an All Others horse this year hasn't got to do as much to be in the thick of it compared to last year.

--Dunbar

One thing to remember is Beyer began adjusting synthetic figures last year in June. He did make them retroactive to January 1st in the PPs, but only after June 1st.

Personally, I would say the small tweaking has been a failure.

Do think pace figs and Speed figs on rubber are as significant to handicapping as they are to dirt? To be they are less useful then even turf figs.

Thanks for the info, Drugster. This is some empirical support for what you already knew.

why?

The goal was to bring the figures in line with dirt numbers, and it hasn't happened. It was never going to work. Figures on turf and synthetics are never going to be true speed figures, and the methods Beyer is using to try make them are too simplistic for what is a complicated task.

Very interesting and not at all unexpected. A year ago some were touting the crop as one of the fastest in recent memory. Over the final month, the standouts (dirt) fell by the wayside leaving us with an opportunity for a Mine That Bird upset.

I would agree with your statement, the figures are not relative. Old time class handicappers are probably doing well though.

Yeah this time last year, I was all excited about the Derby.

Then because of the 2 race day scratches and, the foot problems of QR we ended up with the worst derby field since Sea Hero won in 1992.

I guess the Cali track vet knew what he/she was talking about with the tendon of The Pamplemousse.
I remember Canani being all mad and saying he was fine to run.....Well we have not seen him since.

Good stats DrugS but FAR from surprising. This is not a particularly good bunch and never appeared to be.

I'd like to see a comparison of this year's crop to 2008.

NT

Cal Derby:
2010: Ranger Heartley 78
2009: Chocolate Candy 87
2008: Yankee Bravo 74

San Rafael:
2010: Conveyance 91
2009: The Pampelmousse 96
2008: El Gato Malo 98

Pasco:
2010: Uptowncharliebrown 88
2009: Musket Man 92
2008: Honey Honey Honey 80

Lecomte:
2010: Ron The Greek 90
2009: Friesan Fire 94
2008: Z Fortune 95

Holy Bull:
2010: Winslow Homer 91
2009: Saratoga Sinner 98
2008: Hey Byrn 88

Whirlaway:
2010: Peppi Knows 86
2009: Haynesfield 90
2008: Barrier Reef 94

Bob Lewis:
2010: Caracortado 98
2009: Pioneer of the Nile 98
2008: Crown of Thorns 93

Sam Davis:
2010: Rule 98
2009: General Quarters 102
2008: Fierce Wind 85

San Vincente:
2010: Sidney's Candy 95
2009: Evita Argentina 87
2008: Georgie Boy 102

Risen Star:
2010: Discreetly Mine 94
2009: Friesan Fire 97
2008: Pyro 90

El Camino Real Derby:
2010: Connemara 83
2009: Chocolate Candy 94
2008: Autism Awareness 88

Fountain of Youth:
2010: Eskendereya 106
2009: Quality Road 113
2008: Cool Coal Man 98

Southwest:
2010: Conveyance 97
2009: Old Fashioned 92
2008: Denis of Cork 96

Hutchenson:
2010: D' Funnybone 99
2009: Capt Candyman Can 96
2008: Smooth Air 95

Battaglia Memorial:
2010: Vow To Wager 74
2009: Proceed Bee 83
2008: Absolutely Cindy 89

Gotham:
2010: Awesome Act 98
2009: I Want Revenge 113
2008: Visionaire 98

Sham:
2010: Alphie's Bet 86
2009: The Pampelmousse 107
2008: Colonel John 86

Yet, here's someone that was at the core of the Zenyatta/Beyer numbers discussion (fiasco, might be better), arguing for the correctness of the Beyer numbers. :rolleyes: (If only to make a point with his EUNUCH boss.) I.E. That Beyer got it right.

Hard to believe someone who actually has a brain, like you obviously do, can put out so much stupid **** when it serves your purposes.

BTW, you might want to fire up the headon of Blind Lucks' race and then try to disseminate some truth.

I have never thought Beyers were a good indication of ability on synthetics. The post you mention was a joke for all the Beyer haters who post every big day when the top Beyer horses don't win.

I don't need to watch a head on of Blind Luck to know the pace set was that of a cheap maiden race, not a G1 for fillies.

That's true. I follow your lead and watch as few replays as possible these days. However, if you watch the headon, you'll realize that she wins FOR FUN if she has room. Which makes her effort all the more impressive. So, we can 'settle' for a horse running 'well' in spite of the setup -- certainly nothing to laugh at. Or, we can see it as a horse that would've crushed the field in spite of the setup.

And seeing that she had 'trouble', I'm sure all the TROUBLE TRIP handicappers might want in on this as well.:rolleyes: Something for everyone.

I wonder how much The Fat Man lost on Blind Luck. He has been whining for days and days about the ride. It's obvious by his constant blaming others that he is losing a fortune at the track. Hopefully he starts up his little twitter page again. Gives us all plenty of horses to toss.

Is he wrong? It's not like the fat man is the only person to have questioned the ride.

It certainly wasn't the finest hour in the life of Raffie.

Do you happen to know if any of last years preps were later adjusted by Beyer after the first number was published?

He absolutely has a legit beef. It's a horrible ride! The last few jumps make it even more aggravating.

It was a questionable ride no doubt. But there are bad rides everyday. Part of the game. The fact that TFM is whining on and on shows he lost yet another bet. Usually guys like him who cry about everything are losing their shirt at the track. Too bad. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy :rolleyes:

Part of running at the back of the pack when the pace is a crawl is that you are going to have traffic troubles. You will get no argument from me that it was a horrible ride.

After 20 preps - the tally is now 14-5-1 in favor of last year. Two of this past weekends 3 Derby preps went faster than last year.

Sidney's Candy won the San Felipe with a figure 2.5 lengths faster than Pioneer of the Nile got in his San Felipe win last year. But, he benifited from a BS figure that I feel was given solely to make Zenyatta's race faster than Zardana's.

Amazingly - Odysess's 93 in victory in the eyesore that was the '10 Tampa Derby was faster than Musket Man's 90 in his TBD win last year.

The horse who was 3rd beaten 2 lengths to Musket Man in last years TBD has been running in 12K and 16K claimers at Philly Park.

Was that Pioneer number before or after they tinkered with their polycrap formula?

After.

It's on the same scale as this years.

An update, with 05-now included:


Cal Derby:
2010: Ranger Heartley 78
2009: Chocolate Candy 87
2008: Yankee Bravo 74
2007: Bwana Bull 86
2006: Cause to Believe 98

San Rafael:
2010: Conveyance 91
2009: The Pampelmousse 96
2008: El Gato Malo 98
2007: Notional 92
2006: Brother Derek 107
2005: Spanish Chestnut 91

Pasco:
2010: Uptowncharliebrown 88
2009: Musket Man 92
2008: Honey Honey Honey 80
2007: Barkley Sound 75

Lecomte:
2010: Ron The Greek 90
2009: Friesan Fire 94
2008: Z Fortune 95
2007: Hard Spun 95
2006: ?
2005: Storm Surge 82

Holy Bull:
2010: Winslow Homer 91
2009: Saratoga Sinner 98
2008: Hey Byrn 88
2007: Nobiz Like Shobiz 98
2006: Barbaro 95
2005: Closing Argument 98

Whirlaway:
2010: Peppi Knows 86
2009: Haynesfield 90
2008: Barrier Reef 94
2007: Summer Doldrums 106
2006: Achilles of Troy 103
2005: Sort It Out 95

Bob Lewis:
2010: Caracortado 98
2009: Pioneer of the Nile 98
2008: Crown of Thorns 93
2007: Great Hunter 101

Sam Davis:
2010: Rule 98
2009: General Quarters 102
2008: Fierce Wind 85
2007: Any Given Saturday 95
2006: Bluegrass Cat 96
2005: Andromeda's Hero 79

San Vincente:
2010: Sidney's Candy 95
2009: Evita Argentina 87
2008: Georgie Boy 102
2007: Noble Court 86
2006: Too Much Bling 94
2005: Fusaichi Rock Star 91

Risen Star:
2010: Discreetly Mine 94
2009: Friesan Fire 97
2008: Pyro 90
2007: Notional 92
2006: Lawyer Ron 106
2005: Scipion 89

El Camino Real Derby:
2010: Connemara 83
2009: Chocolate Candy 94
2008: Autism Awareness 88
2007: Bwana Bull 87
2006: Cause To Believe 92
2005: Uncle Denny 85

Fountain of Youth:
2010: Eskendereya 106
2009: Quality Road 113
2008: Cool Coal Man 98
2007: Scat Daddy 95
2006: First Samurai 94
2005: High Fly 99

Southwest:
2010: Conveyance 97
2009: Old Fashioned 92
2008: Denis of Cork 96
2007: Teuflesberg 100
2006: Lawyer Ron 95
2005: Greater Good 85

Hutchenson:
2010: D' Funnybone 99
2009: Capt Candyman Can 96
2008: Smooth Air 95
2007: King of the Roxy 103
2006: Keyed Entry 110
2005: Proud Accolade 93

Battaglia Memorial:
2010: Vow To Wager 74
2009: Proceed Bee 83
2008: Absolutely Cindy 89
2007: Catman Running 88
2006: Laity 80
2005: Magna Graduate 91

Count Fleet:
2010: Laus Deo 78
2009: Haynesfield 88
2008: Giant Moon 92
2007: Pink Viper 81
2006: Achilles of Troy 104
2005: Scrappy T 96

Gotham:
2010: Awesome Act 98
2009: I Want Revenge 113
2008: Visionaire 98
2007: Cowtown Cat 88
2006: Like Now 105
2005: Survivalist 90

Sham:
2010: Alphie's Bet 86
2009: The Pampelmousse 107
2008: Colonel John 86
2007: Ravel 102
2006: Bob and John 102
2005: Going Wild 100

Tampa Bay Derby:
2010: Odysseus 93
2009: Musket Man 90
2008: Big Truck 93
2007: Street Sense 101
2006: Deputy Glitters 102
2005: Sun King 91

San Felipe:
2010: Sydney's Candy 95
2009: Pioneerof the Nile 90
2008: Georgie Boy 92
2007: Cobalt Blue 96
2006: A.P. Warrior 101
2005: Consolidator 104

Florida Derby:
2010:
2009: Quality Road 111
2008: Big Brown 106
2007: Scat Daddy 98
2006: Barbaro 103
2005: High Fly 102

Rebel:
2010: Lookin At Lucky 97
2009: Win Willy 102
2008: Sierra Sunset 99
2007: Curlin 97
2006: Lawyer Ron 92
2005: Greater Good 95

Louisiana Derby:
2010:
2009: Friesan Fire 104
2008: ?
2007: Circular Quay 102
2006: ?
2005: High Limit 105

Lane's End:
2010:
2009: Hold Me Back 97
2008: Adriano 92
2007: Hard Spun 101
2006: With a City 91
2005: Flower Alley 94

Wood:
2010:
2009: I Want Revenge 103
2008: Tale of Ekati 93
2007: Nobiz Like Shobiz 98
2006: Bob and John 93
2005: Bellamy Road 120

SA Derby:
2010:
2009: Pioneerof the Nile 96
2008: Colonel John 95
2007: Tiago 100
2006: Brother Derek 108
2005: Buzzards Bay 98

Illinois Derby:
2010:
2009: Musket Man 98
2008: Recapturetheglory 102
2007: Cowtown Cat 98
2006: Sweetnorthersaint 109
2005: Greeley's Galaxy 106

Blue Grass:
2010:
2009: General Quarters 95
2008: Monba 92
2007: Dominican 93
2006: Sinister Minister 116
2005: Bandini 103

Arkansas Derby:
2010:
2009: Papa Clem 101
2008: Gayego 103
2007: Curlin 103
2006: Lawyer Ron 98
2005: Afleet Alex 108

Lexington:
2010:
2009: Advice 94
2008: Behindatthebar 99
2007: Slew's Tizzy 95
2006: Showing Up 99
2005: Coin Silver 99

Withers:
2010:
2009: Mr. Fantasy 102
2008: Harlem Rocker 106
2007: ?
2006: Bernardini 104
2005: Scrappy T 102

Derby Trial:
2010:
2009: Hull 92
2008: Macho Again 99
2007: ?
2006: Record 95
2005: Don't Get Mad 98