10/24 (LRL): $300,000 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1)
 

9th (5:07) Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G1)

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Vineyard Haven Garcia Alan 116 L
2 Roaring Lion Trujillo E 118 LA
3 Ravalo Rose J 118 L
4 Fleet Valid Morales P 118 L
5 True Quality Lopez C C 118 LA
6 Peace Chant Chavez J F 118 L
7 Sacred Journey Cohen D 118 L
8 Saratoga Russell Hill C 118 LA
9 Ah Day Russell S 118 LA

What happened to Kodiak Kowboy and Fabulous Strike? Wasnt this supposed to have both of them? How disappointing to be left with this field.

Looks like a romp for Vineyard Haven, that last race looks totally legit.

I think Peace Chant runs big in here. I like the jockey change. Chavez rarely gets live horses in big races anymore. I wouldnt be surprised to see a good finish, maybe even the win.

Based on what? He was primed off the bench I can give you that, VH is a really good horse but I think he's a bet against tomorrow.
Other then CCMC no one has ran back to do a thing. CCMC race was a prep and on POLY.
Munnings ran like ****.
Flat Bold ran like ****.
Despite The Odds ran like ****.
Not For Silver ran pretty shitty IMO, and again that was on POLY.
Everyday Heros ran like ****.
Prince Joshua ran like ****.

Ok I get the winner came back and ran well, but there has not been one winner out of the Kings Bishop and the highest beyer has been a 103 over POLY, that number drops off to a 86 after CCMC. I thought a key race or legit race had to have at least 3-4 horses come back and run well, only 2 have came out of this to run at all, and really only 1 IMO.

Im betting this race tomorrow and Im betting Ravalo to win and using Ravalo and Peace Chant in the all stakes pick 3.
VH is a need the lead horse IMO and the rail should really hurt with at least 2-3 other horses have sub 21 speed for the opening quarter...
VH can win and I love Godolphin as much as anyone, but I get the feeling he wont tomorrow.

I think you are wasting your money but good luck as I am not betting this race.

I agree.

I do to, he's one of only 2 I will be using in the picks. I doubt he will be much of a suprise though, GIANT MIDDLE MOVE IN LAST AND TONS OF SPEED TO SET THIS UP.

I like Ravalo & doubt he'll be 8-1...

I think we will get at least 6-1. VH should be around 4-5. Peace Chant should get bet, same with True Quality.

You really need to chill out with the caps.

Saratoga Russell is a scratch

what race has he won good enough to win this, if you are going with the fall apart scenario isnt a stronger closer like Ravalo a better play? (not that I think this scenario happens).

That hurts my 2 a little. I still think there is enough speed though, CC will go.

I hope the public goes nuts on Vineyard Haven as I think he's an incredibly beatable favorite. He only has one choice from that post and it's to go and I don't think he can stare Roaring Lion and/or True Quality in the eye and stay.

Ravalo is sharp right now and I think he'll be tough. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Ah Day get a piece.

NT

I dont think Peace Chant is necessarily a closer. Hes usually shown pretty good speed to be very close to fast paces. He did take way back in his race at Turf Paradise and was lucky that the race completely fell apart, and stormed home to win. That was a fast enough race to win this, if the same scenario occured. Dpends on what the new trainer/jockey strategy is. I dont know if you can label him a closer off of 1 race. He was pretty close to that fast pace in the Forego and to me that was a complete throw out as it was his first one back off a long layoff. Hes clearly not the same horse he was in 07 but I dont think a win here is that far fetched. If you believe in trainer angles, this new trainer (Phipps) has a high win % with horses going first time for him. I dont know, not the worst stab in the world.

I also dont think Ravalo is that much of a closer either. Hes got pretty good speed to stay fairly close. Hes in awesome form and knows how to win, but these are much better horses than hes been beaten.

True Quality isnt in raging form either and he may go off 2nd choice in here. Why does this horse deserve such a high rating? Because he won 1 race at Laurel back when he was in really good form? As if the mere fact this race is at the same racetrack is going to bring him back to who he was?

Warm and breezy here in Montgomery County Maryland at 9:20 AM, which may change before 5:09PM race time but at present it's a nice morning.

Steve D in Betting Thoro's in the 21st century talks about a conditioning bias that occurs from superior effort and gaining position on the turn in 6F and 7F races. The bulk of the field has worked or run at Laurel except VH.

Too often players who don't normally play Laurel regularly forget that home cooking is a big advantage here with works and races on this track seemingly an edge on big stakes days. 4 for 10 Roaring Lion ,the works of Rivalo over the Laurel quicksand and Ah Day's 8 for 14 at Laurel will likely be determining factors today.

Rose is having a wonderful fall as it seems everything he touches (NY,KY) recently is getting a picture taken. If VH wins I lose, but I'll take JR and Rivalo to gobble up VH during the long Laurel stretch run that is CD like in distance. VH is best on poly and will likely get an education today in the Dash.

VH has never run on poly to my knowledge.

Jeremy Rose is also named to ride Fenway Faithful in today's 7th at Belmont. Thats kind of weird and would be hard for him to get to Laurel in the short time between when these races go off (4:07pm and 5:37 pm).

What an absolute horriffic beat if you needed Ravalo. Great race by the top 3 horses. Peace Chant looked like he may make late noise but the top 3 never stopped running. Fleet Valid sure has come a long way in a short amount of time.

Not to be mean but how can you expect anyone to take you seriously with comments like this?

Vinyard Haven had about the worst possible trip you can have.

:confused: :confused:

speed horse shuffled back into the slop, has to wait, gets mixed up between horses down the stretch, to explode late....if you think thats a good trip then you are with the rest on this thread that said VH just aint very good.

I dont see anyone saying hes not that good. This race with the rail draw did not set up for him. I can now ADMIT, he is much much better then I thought, and GODOLPHIN IS ON FIRE.

I just don't see why anyone would say it didn't set up for him. Didn't anyone watch the King's Bishop? He was inside all of those speed horses but he had enough speed to keep them from coming over on him and then he battled with another horse before putting him away and opening up a lead. If that race was 6f, he wins it easily. Today was shorter with less talented horses. He was by far the most obvious choice going in. Sometimes people get too carried away with thinking that it's stupid to play a horse just because he's a favorite and they start looking for things that aren't there.

I see what your saying, but taking 4-5 on him in this spot was insane IMO, I thought he would be 4-5,1-1 and he was.

against the likes of the great Ravalo and Ah Day...i mean think about that, those horses suck and the fact the trip he got is the only thing that made it a contest.

This horse is an elite level talent.

and I dont begrudge not liking his price, I just did not feel he was vulnerable.

I disagree, I thought he had every chance to draw off and win this race by more than he did, I dont think the trip was that bad for a horse thats "an elite talent"...I agree with Rock Hard Ten here and personally would have been betting with both fists against him. Turns out I am glad I didnt bet but by no means was it stupid to try and beat this horse. If you keep playing horses like Vineyard Haven at 4/5, you'll end up taking a huge beating.

Then you don't take him but you don't have to play against him either. I didn't put it on this forum but I said on another one that he really had no reason to lose and should be 1/2.

If you keep playing against horses like this against grade 3 animals you will surely lose...thats my point, who says you have to play him, cant you pass the race?

Now Mrs Kipling later at SA, now thats a fav to bet against.

If you keep playing him at those odds against good horses, I agree. When he should be 8/5 and instead he's 4/5, you'll end up on the short end. But against fields like today, where he should be 1/2, you'll end up ahead if he keeps going off at 4/5.

I was too hungover to get my act together and get out and either bet at the simuldump or load up my phone account.

I see what you are saying King. They're favorites that I love and I will bet at prices like 4/5. Like Driven by Success in today's race. I would have swallowed the pride and taken the $3.60 no problem. Usually though when I just like a favorite, I'll pass the race.

Good logic, we just dont agree on this particular 4/5 shot (Vineyard Haven) who happened to win. I probably would have made a medium size win bet on Peace Chant at 10/1.

:tro:
Agree 100% with your logic, just not this particular case.

I have a theory as to why Godolphin horses are suddenly running how they are expected to run.

That numbnut that's listed as trainer, Big Ben Suroor, he's actually been based in Europe since Summer, so someone else is doing the hands on training this year.

Pretty sure he has always been based abroad. . . and Rick Metee has been their North American trainer.

Yeah, I wasn't too sure about this. Hence it being just a theory.

I know he would be based elsewhere during the winter months, but wasn't sure if he came here during peak racing season.

He always seemed to be around though, so thought that perhaps he was here.

If you have ever had the pleasure of hearing him talk, you'd be able to see how I came up with my theory.

I've talked to him before. I know what you mean.

Wow. I'm so sorry for you.