Originally Posted by Alan07

Want Revenge, trained by Jeff Mullins, will be the 3-1 morning line favorite for Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia set the odds this morning before the draw at noon and is not expected to make substantial changes after the post positions are set.

Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
Advice N/A Todd Pletcher 30-1
Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1
Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 42-1
Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-1
Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1
Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez J. Larry Jones 5-1
General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1
Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1
I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-1
Join in the Dance N/A Todd Pletcher 50-1
Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley Jr. 50-1
Mr. Hot Stuff N/A Eoin Harty 30-1
Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1
Nowhere to Hide N/A Nick Zito 50-1
Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1
Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 9-2
Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1
West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

Chocolate Candy fans have to love that price

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I have never seen a 42/1 morning line....Battaglia is working overtime.

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

Originally Posted by Linny

I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.

Originally Posted by Linny

I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Battaglia Belmont 31 lengths

"And Secretariat in the lead and uh ...
and uh...
gaining ground in sec-ond is
uh...
GAIN -ING GROUND! is uh..
My Gal-lant Gain-ing Ground
Twice-a-Prince is Gain-ing Ground
uh Sec-re-tariat has won"

Originally Posted by jms62

Zitos pigs have waddled their way into the Super and crushed my dreams all too often.

Originally Posted by CSC

I prefer Regal Ransom from a pace perspective, there really wasn't much difference between the 2 from their Dubai preps if you exclude the middle race where DP won by 4 1/2, but the best way to decide is view the replays for yourself. I'm going to work both of them into my picks, they are my main plays this year because they offer excellent value, I'll throw in a saver somewhere also.

Originally Posted by tjfla

Desert Party will be about 7/1 as the wiseguy horse

Dunkirk and Friesan Fire should drop

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree. If I make a win bet, it'll be on Regal Ransom.

Originally Posted by CSC

Dunkirk's not impossible, however 4-1 is very short. I would have no interest other than a saver exotic bet with him. Looks like his odds are drastically shorter with QR's defection.

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

agreed... if the lines stay line the Morning lines are... I'll only play Dunkirk on top of an exacta with some longshots I like...

Dunkirk over West side bernie, Hold me back, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Desert Part.

If the odds stay similar I'll also probably bet Desert Party to win (though if he is the wise guy horse his odds will probably fall)

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree. If I make a win bet, it'll be on Regal Ransom.

Originally Posted by miraja2

I actually don't see this race as that wide open after the defection of Quality Road. Anything better than 7/2 on I Want Revenge would be a gift in my opinion.
I think my only play here will be I Want Revenge to win, and a Pioneerof the Nile/I Want Revenge exacta box.

Originally Posted by kgar311

Can I book that bet?

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

Originally Posted by kgar311

I also say he finishes 16th

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Sprint was a straight away - with Indian Blessing breaking from the far outside.

The three real Dubai Cup races on dirt were all won by the inside speed. Two Step Salsa, Regal Ransom, and Well Armed

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I think if you are sold on I want revenge... but not sold on POTN, you should play more than just an exact box with POTN... You should key I want revenge over a few horses that you think could run in the money.. and add some horses underneath who have some value.

Originally Posted by miraja2

I am.
As I said, I am also betting I Want Revenge to win. That is where probably 75-80% of the money I'll bet on the race will go. I feel more confident that he will win this race than any horse I can remember in the Derby since Point Given (of course, we remember how that turned out).
I will probably just use the other 20-25% on the exacta box because POTN is the horse that seems the most likely of the rest to perhaps come up with a big effort and beat I Want Revenge. But for this race, a straight win bet seems the best bet for me, because I can't really distinguish between Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Friesan Fire, Mr. Hot Stuff, West Side Bernie, etc. when it comes to filling out the underneath portions of a tri or super.

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Use 'em all swing for the fences!!:$:

Originally Posted by miraja2

A lack of :$: makes that approach problematic.
A straight win bet means I don't have to worry about some slug sucking up for third and costing me a respectable cash.
Now if something strange happens and I Want Revenge is somehow 9/5, well, that changes things. But that seems unlikely.

Originally Posted by CSC

Two Step Salsa didn't ride the rail the entire trip that I am sure of.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.