Win Willy won't be winning on Saturday
 

Too bad..... Was going to use him somewhere in my tickets... One less to add to the equation now I reckon.

Hope he recovers quickly.

Been a strange pre-Derby week.

So whose in? Someone mentioned Flat Out is injured.

wow...
well, on earnings, I think Imperial Council is next in line, although I highly doubt Shug has any plans to send him.

Is Nicanor eligible yet? ;)

Should be interesting. Yea, it will be someone that doesn't belong, but, can you imagine having a 3 YO and getting in the Kentucky Derby with so little winnings. Hell, I'd do it in a NY minute. What's the earnings down to, $85K?

Nowhere to Hide

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...kentucky-derby

This is actually getting kind of funny.

I feel bad for Mac, though he doesn't seem to be that bothered by it...which doesn't really surprise me in the least.

I agree with whoever said it's getting kind of funny. All these stragglers are getting in, and the list of real contenders has been dropping steadily for weeks now.

What looked like one the more exciting runnings of the Derby now looks more like an obstacle course. Four horses running for the win around 16 moving pylons trying to block their way.

It is, and it isn't. Everytime somebody drops out that wasn't a factor anyway, which is pretty much everyone this week except QR, I'm thinking the field is better without another slow horse...Five minutes later I hear that an even slower one has taken his place.

More $ to put on Summer Bird

Dont laugh...I like Summer Bird to get in the Super..

It's a good thing a lot of the later additions (well some, anyway) will be taking up room at the back of the pack as opposed to showing speed and dropping quickly on the turn, with 12 horses coming-up from behind them.

You have to feel bad for the connections. At least Win Willy won a stakes race on the trail this year. He deserved a shot.

I said it yesterday, but if you like Dunkirk, why is Summer Bird all that different? I don't think either will end up being a factor anyway, but it's just as likely that Summer Bird clunks up for fourth as anybody else.

what is funny is that this year the graded earnings required to get in to the starting gate is considerably less than most prior years. It's a very "top heavy" field.

I don't know...one seems fairly talented while the other not so much, but that is just a minor detail.

They've both only run three races and both pretty much dead closers. What have you seen out of Summer Bird that would lead you to believe he is completely untalented? He's only run three races.

I don't disagree with that, but I think if Dunkirk were somehow trained by Tim Ice and not owned by Coolmore, he'd be thought of much more like Summer Bird when it comes to his Derby chances.

Who wants to give me odds that Summer Bird finishes higher than Dunkirk on Saturday? Anyone?

instead of only going by graded earnings, i think a win in a graded event would help separate the wheat from the chaff. this is ridiculous.

Are you serious?

Think about who Dunkirk has run against in three starts and who Summer Bird has run against. Take a look at the 108 Beyer that Dunkirk posted last time or the 98 prior to it. Compare Quality Road when he had a perfect trip to Papa Clem. Consider how the race was backing into Summer Bird.

It's OK to not like Dunkirk but to compare him to Summer Bird or to try and make a hopeless case that Dunkirk would be getting as much pub as SB if he was trained by Tim Ice is completely idiotic.

NT

Really? You don't think people are in love with the horse more so because of the connections than his actual on-track performance? My opinion might be misguided, but I think idiotic is a little over the top.

NO

Well, with all due respect, I think you guys are dead wrong.

And just think how small the Derby would be if they based getting in on Graded earnings...

next in line Ricks Natural Star

Clearly you and I disagree on how many people like Dunkirk based on him being trained by Todd Pletcher. I mean, who wouldn't be drawn to a horse trained by a guy who's 0-20 in the Derby and has a 3 year dead ass last streak going? I think he has a chance but I couldn't possibly care less who trains him.

I think if Dunkirk was trained by a mid-range Florida horseman, like Ice is a mid-range midwest horseman, he would be getting plenty of support because he has done enough on the track to garner support.

NT

I agree... I was so excited for an amazing Derby a month ago.... Now like you said.. 4 contenders and 16 pretenders (and you know two of those pretenders will be in the super so it makes it way difficult)

I think the average Derby better will care who trains a horse, especially if it's as big a name as Pletcher.

At the end of the day, I'm just not fond of Dunkirk given the price he's going to be, and think there are a variety of options out there that are going to pay a heck of a lot better that are potentially equally as talented as he.

15-1

hey you shouldnt be upset... you are going to get high odds on Summer Bird (if he is under 30-1 you should pass on him though) where dunkirk will be in the top three choices.

I think you're misunderstanding me. I don't fancy Summer Bird's chances in the least; I just think as a general principle betting on Derby starters with zero 2YO starts and three races under their belts is foolish in the long run.

Now, if this wasn't the internet, we could shake on it.

Clearly this is oversimplified, but if there's no "Quality Road" in the Florida Derby, Dunkirk comes in to the Derby very similar to Big Brown last year:
Undefeated in 3 starts, and more importantly, winning easily by open lengths in each start, including the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Not to mention, winning an allowance race at the GP distance where if you're hung out wide on the first turn like he was, you're basically screwed.

I haven't been a big Dunkirk fan this Spring, but rewatching his 3 races, I can't help but feel he could eventually be the best of this crop. I'm just not sure he'll be the best by this Saturday.

:) I'm not willing to wager more than a six pack on that...

At 15-1, I'd owe you a LOT of beer.

There's nothing wrong with liking/disliking Dunkirk and if you believe he provides no value then I would absolutely encourage you to look elsewhere.

However, that doesn't mean you should even posit the argument that his credentials are similar to Summer Bird, who has a suck-up third in a fast-paced race to his credit.

NT

??

Has anyone else ever noticed that when a derby is shaping up to be particularly deep for a given year, as we get nearer to the race the race starts to fall apart with injuries?

I like both dunkirk and summer bird so I have no dawg in this fight. I dont think either will win...I think tri / super material. Obviously summer at 40-1 as a dead closer is what appeals to me.