Who will be the "wise guy" horse???
 

Dont know if this has been brought up yet and it may be a little early but im curious to who you guys think will be the horse for the Derby that gets a lot of action that we aren't thinking about right now? From the reports ive been reading i'll "bet" that its desert party which sucks for me b/c for some odd reason im drawn to the horse. I guess b/c i remember his first race at Arl and just thought it was a pretty good effort. And you have to think that as many times as the Sheik has thrown his shots he's gonna get one sooner or later. Sorry if this is a stupid question but we were talking about it at work today.

If I had to guess it will be Hold Me Back even thought his only dirt attempt sucked but he has run very well this year and he closed well into slow fractions in the Blue Grass. But Desert Party is a good choice to possibly be the wise guy horse....I was thinking about this same thing today, glad you brought it up.

Dunkirk or Desert Party.

Haber, it just makes me wonder b/c when im at races and some horse that i figured would be 8-1 or so jumps down to like 5/2 it always makes me wonder what did i miss? Same thing with KD but i think the odds movements are a lot more volatile like a horse i figured would be 30-1 is 9-1. Just freaks me out sometimes.

ateam, what you think dunkirk's m/l then actual post time odds will be? im thinking m/l 10-1 post time 6-1.

Chocolate Candy

I think it'll be hard for Dunkirk to go down to 6-1 since IWR, Quality Road, and PoTN (debatable I guess) will probably take more money than him.

I think the betting is going to be similar to the 2007 edition with the fav @ almost 5:1 ( IWR ), two others at just under 10:1, ( QR and Dunkirk ) some mid-prices, and probably 10 or 12 @ 25:1 or more

I get ESPN the magazine, and of course they never have jack sh1t for horse racing coverage. Then they go ahead and put in something horse related in this issue and of course it's not a good story about the sport or the Derby coming up, it's about vets that have to put down horses on the track including a gruesome picture of a horse with 2 broken forelegs.
Then in a little sidebox they give their wiseguy horses.

Chocolate Candy
Desert Party

and Pioneer of the Nile - lol

Absolutely 100% Dunkirk... My buddies in NYC who do not follow racing except on Derby day are already picking Dunkirk as the winner..

Pioneer of the Nile after Weds. work

I agree w/Desert Party. Trying not to be drawn in myself, although I'm already feeling the lure.

i agree, i think people will be surprised when he is overbet. the guy that writes for the saratogian (brendan O'meara) keeps saying that this will be pletchers , break through. so, i know there are plenty of folks on the bandwagon. there is alot of talk about square eddie too, who i feel has no shot in the race. but , the best horse does not always win the derby anyway.

Any of the Italian Horses ?

I agree about Dunkirk. I think some casual fans might look at Chocolate Candy with Mike Smith and think it's "Giacomo" all over again, which I won't buy into at all.

Papa Clem, Desert Party...thought it would be Chocolate Candy, but the buzz is falling off on him a bit since the SAD.

smooth air

Desert Party!

I think the "wise guy" horse is/will be Choc Candy or Mr. Hot Stuff...

Quality Road.

Your buddies who don't follow racing, except for Derby Days, are thus not anything close to " wise guys. "

I'm thinking it will be Papa Clem. I think that the three main horses coming out of California (Pioneer, IWR, and Papa Clem) all had/have the dirt question to answer. IWR and PC both have answered it while Pioneer has yet to do so. Now that we know PC can run on the dirt, I think more attention is going to be put on the fact that he did finish ahead of IWR at Santa Anita. I know Old Fashioned got hurt in the running and a lot of people weren't impressed with the Arkansas Derby but for me, it was a really good effort. I could see Papa Clem dropping down to about the 7/1 or 8/1 range.

Not saying they were Andy... I'm saying that wise guy horses get talked up and those with a casual interest and maybe a bookie or two get wind.. "Wise Guy" horse is not a positive thing to me. It is a overhyped, overbet horse who won't win.

The true " wise guy " opinion in this year's KY Derby is that Pioneer of the Nile is a major bet against. There really is no " wise guy horse " to bet on.

A lot of people I work with really like Pioneer of the Nile, some of these people have talked to the farm where he was broke and trained and they said he trained very well at that time on the dirt. Although he still hasn't run a race on it with dirt flying back and hitting him in the face I think he is still a must use especially since he has beat a 1/4 of the field that will be entered in the race.

chocolate candy

-bt-

You mean I'm the only person on the West Side Bernie bandwagon? I figured the groundswell on W.S.B. would be well on its way to "wise guy" status by now.

All I know is if Quality Road isn't 100%, I have no idea where I'll end up.

Right, they are the anti-wise guys, which just furthers my point.

Once again, there is a misconseption of what a wise guy is around here. Like it or not.....The Fat Man is the " wise guy " of this board.

DrugS and I have decided to name our pending foal(Straight Man- Notorious Girl) "Trackus" in honor of the Fat Man.. The foal should be born this week we will get the transceiver implanted shortly after the foal nurses.. Fatty will know whenever the weanie nurses or dumps..

I believe QR's second quarter crack saved you a lot of money

This isn't much of a 'wise guy' pick. Every doofus with a bone to pick with POLY is against POTN.

A true 'wise guy' pick would be taking a stand against one of the 'conventional' darlings (i.e. high speed figure horses). This year, that would be Quality Road. Too bad all that quarter crack BS is going on; and will scare some supporters away.

I have no bone to pick with poly just slow horses.. POTN is slow

When was the last time the "wise guy" horse actually WON the Derby? Or even hit the board???

And I don't want to hear Monarchos because he was a strong contender all season.

I don't know, how did Bandini work out in '05?

Is it a time trial?

People clearly have different definitions of "wise guy" horses, but personally I wouldn't classify a horse coming in off of a dominant win like Bandini had in the Bluegrass that year as a "wise guy" horse. Typically, when it comes to the Derby, I think wise guy horses are horses that did not win their final derby "prep" race, but the wise guys believe they have found a logical reason why that happened which is unlikely to repeat itself in the Derby. For me, it doesn't mean the same thing as simply an overbet horse.
To me, Desert Party fits the model more than any others this year. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win.

Go for Gin was a wise guy horse coming off two major against the track losses.

Monarchos wasn't bet much at all in the Derby considering his good races in the Fla Derby and Wood.

That was by far the deepest Kentucky Derby field this decade ... and that complete no talent bum Dollar Bill was somehow the 2nd choice in the Derby betting after getting drubbed by like 8 lengths to Millenium Wind in the Blue Grass ... and losing to Fifty Stars with a massively overrated "bad trip" his start prior.

A classic example of a total slowpoke with not so cleverly disguised darkened form ... getting bet like mad into the teeth of many wildly superior horses.

He did pay over $20, but I recall a lot of unwarranted "wise guy" talk about him for whatever reason. I figured him to be a solid contender in a solid race. Dollar Bill was unquestionably the wise guy choise of the millenium in that race. Whether it was the deepest field this decade is debatable, it certainly was better than 2000, 2005, 2008; probably better than 2002, 2006, and 2007, and at least comparable to 2003, 2004, and this year.

Go For Gin would have been the last legitimate "wise guy" selection that won IMO.