Current Derby Field
 

1 Regal Ransom bin Suroor, Saeed -- Garcia, A.
2 Pioneerof the Nile Baffert, Bob -- Gomez
3 I Want Revenge Mullins, Jeff -- Talamo
4 Papa Clem Stute, Gary -- Bejarano
5 Desert Party bin Suroor, Saeed -- Dominguez, R

6 General Quarters McCarthy, Tom -- Leparoux
7 Friesan Fire Jones, J. Larry -- Saez
8 Musket Man Ryan, Derek -- Coa
9 Hold Me Back Mott, Bill -- Desormeaux
10 West Side Bernie Breen, Kelly -- Elliott

11 Chocolate Candy Hollendorfer, Jerry -- Smith
12 Advice Pletcher, Todd -- Douglas, R.
13 Dunkirk Pletcher, Todd -- Prado
14 Mine That Bird Woolley, Bennie -- Borel
15 Flying Private Lukas, D. W. -- Abarado

16 Mr. Hot Stuff Harty, Eoin -- J. Velasquez
17 Summer Bird Ice, Tim -- Rosier
18 Join in the Dance Pletcher, Todd -- Decarlo
19 Atomic Rain Breen, Kelly -- Bravo
20 Nowhere to Hide. Zito, Nick --
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21 Flat Out Dickey, Scooter -- Garcia, J

I thought it was still up in the air who Dominguez & Garcia were riding...did they make that choice today?

No.. Speculative. Should really make both 'Dominguez/Garcia' till there's a decision.

If I was calling their shots Dominguez rides RR as I think one of his abilities is getting a horse to settle, which is what RR is going to need to do if he has a prayer in the race. I would chose someone like Victor E. over Dominguez but if deciding between those two, that's who I use.

I like Ramon better from mid-pack or further off the pace.

I agree and think Desert Party would be good for him, but am assuming they give that one to for Garcia out of appreciation for previous services rendered, so to speak, to the bin Al Maktoum family...

I remember in 2001 having a few hundred dollars on the "over" in a prop bet that was 17.5 for the number of horses to start in that years Derby.

Even though that year was loaded with so many scary good looking horses about seven or so weeks out - I thought it was a total cinch enough bums would be sacraficed up to make it a full field of 20 .. and I basically thought I had a steal.

The race ended up only going with 17 .... D. Wayne Lukas had two allowance horses that year that were both nominated to the Kentucky Derby and had a pulse. He didn't enter either one.

That was just about the most maddening prop bet I've ever lost.

I find it very interesting that little is being said about Friesan Fire so far.

What is there to say?

If this forum is any indication by the lack of talk surrounding him, he may be a forgotten horse Derby day, I'm not counting on it, but if I had the gumption I would track it on a graph/chart. No not really I hate charts...even the FM charts.

Maybe I need some mystery goggles or something, but I just don't see why Desert Party isn't considered one of the top choices this year.

I'm sticking with him.

1. Dubai
2. No Frankie
3. Lost to Regal Ransom (which isn't a huge negative to me)
4. At least five American horses that look better
5. Beaten no one

1. Dubai- A legitimate question mark
2. No Frankie- A blessing in a dirt race
3. Lost to Regal Ransom (which isn't a huge negative to me)- A non-issue given the track
4. At least five American horses that look better- A debatable opinion
5. Beaten no one- A dangerous argument but who has I Want Revenge beaten?

NT

I've bought into the Dubai hype more than once and never was in contention in the Derby that I can remember. It may have been different if Street Cry made it, but he didn't.

Last year if I am remembering correctly there were some big races in Europe on Derby day, so I wouldn't look at Frankie not being here as much as if he were riding here.

The more I look at the Dubai entrants the more I like them given the prices they figure to be.

Phil, I have too many bad memories of Johannesburg to bet the Euro's in this type of race, if it were turf I would consider. It's hard to know what to make of them, I guess at a price you can't go wrong.

Whoever Dominguez ends up on, I'll cover with a win bet. I know it's crazy, but I gotta do it. Then I can make my regular bets and relax.

The 2000 Guineas always seems to be on the same day as the Derby so Frankie usually stays in Newmarket...

I like Desert Party too, even more so if Regal Ransom takes his place in the field..

I just hope he works a bit better than he did in the leadup to the UAE Derby when he seemed to be very quiet / not himself..

My ? mark with him is how much were his victories a product of good trips and suspect competition. And when you toss the layoff and lack of an 8.5f prep, it becomes more difficult to use him when there are more likeable, and valued-filled, options available.

Desert Party is by far their best proposition so far, and with Regal Ransom now going, and likely serving as a pace setup, he becomes more appealing.

His UAE Derby was a really strong effort. And he has 2-year-old form. One of my concerns though is the fact many wise-guy 'cappers are talking him up a bit, which is tricky, because he might get more action than we think.

Neither Desert Party or Regal Ransom have started on turf? And they're not Euros?

1. Understood
2. Doesn't matter
3. Closed better than anyone into the bias (Well Armed sucks)
4. Debatable
5. BS... Who have any of them beaten? They are a bunch of unproven three-year-olds. The "Who Did He Beat" defense has to come after a horse has had a few campaigns.

I didn't think he could possibly lose DWC night, like you I like him much more than Regal Ransom if I had to choose between the two.

Travis, what I mean't to say is I give extra credence when European based horses come over for turf races, not dirt races. You are correct they are American horses, we shouldn't refer to them as European horses just because they were bought by Godolphin.

Pioneerof the Nile has beaten everyone he has faced since December, including...

-The winner of the Gotham, Wood, and probably Derby fave, I Want Revenge.

-The winner of the Arkansas Derby, Papa Clem.

-The winner of the El Camino Real Derby and the California Derby, Chocolate Candy.

-Bittel Road.

...and all I'm doing is explaining why he isn't among the favorites at the moment. I'm not saying I don't think he has a chance. I need to clear this up before Stonegossard gets confused and thinks I'm predicting DP will finish last.

Another positive if you want to look at it is that Desert Party has run 3 times in Dubai. I believe that Godolphin's main Derby hopes usually raced either once or twice in Dubai before running in the Derby. You could at least argue Desert Party has the race conditioning that you seem to need (debatable point in itself!)

He has also won on dirt unlike some other candidates! :)

You just dont know when to shut your pie hole do you. I can bury you again if you like. You make it very easy.

whoopie

you're overrating the win by papa in the arkansas. i want revenge won on dirt, and lost on synthetic. how that boosts a horse who has never run on dirt and has only run/won on synthetic, heading into a dirt race, i don't know.

Bittle Road?

You left off Lime Rickey as well.

and friesan fire beat giant oak. i think i have my exacta. the 'who beat a causeway colt' angle. someone write this down.

but then i'd have to use general quarters....bah
forget it.

Inside joke, dipwad.

Yes, wasn't Bittle Road one of your top Derby prospects going into this year?

Coming from a guy with a blog on Kentuckyderby.com I would expect more.

But I thought any idiot with a computer could write a blog.

Not just any idiot, it has to be a special idiot. I think you have reached that level.

Anyways, please answer the question.

Did you really think coming into this year that Bittle Road was going to be a top Derby contender ?

If you had bothered to read the accompanying comments that went with my first Derby Top 20 list, you would know that the list was based on Wynn Future Odds as well as my opinion of each horse's likelihood of Derby victory. At the time, I believe Bittel Road was around 100-1 or something. So, considering he ran a decent 4th in what has proven to be a key race, yes, I thought he was the 4th-best choice for a wager at the time. I also had Big Drama 2nd and Brother Keith 5th.

At the end of the day, there is little doubt that few people here respect my opinion, which does not bother me in the least. Yet according to the poll that was taken in that other thread, more people think you are an idiot than think I am an idiot. How does that make you feel?

How can you bash a guy for projecting a horse as a contender in January that hasn't progressed? I guess you have a futures ticket that you bought in December on the winner.

Justin, the day I take into consideration the results of a poll on here on how I view myself, is the day I walk over to the beach, continue walking into the ocean and don't stop until I reach Cuba or I drown. Apparently you think it is meaningful though, rather sad.



Bittle Road isn't the worst opinion I have ever heard.....but Brother Keith is. Keep up the good work.


By the love the way you think that poll has anything to do with someone being an idiot. Reading comprehension is obviously not your strong point.

Seriously man....quit bringing me up, it always ends with you making a complete jacka## out of yourself and either going into hiding or putting up the white flag. Frankly, I am getting bored making you look so bad.