4/21: Derby Works & Notes
 

Post renovation works..

I Want Revenge: 1:01.3 -- Went very nicely; Leaping and bucking when entering track; Quickly wanted to get away from pony; Looks good physically. Talamo said he felt great under him...

Pioneerof the Nile: 1:00.3 -- Hard to deny how good he looks in person; Dappled out all over hind end; Smooth work and appeared comfortable on track but I couldn't see how much urging he might have been under..

Chocolate Candy: 1:42.0 -- Surprising Whittingham-style work as he goes a 7f to 7f mile. Absolutely tired and blowing hard after, but I'd assume that's exactly what Hollendorfer wanted.

Flying Private: 1:01.1 -- Didn't see him. Saw Lukas though. Appears highly tanned and rather distinguished.

The Bad news: 2 apparently fatal breakdowns as Bobby Barnett and Hal Wiggins both lose horses this a.m. The Wiggins was an Arky bred reportedly that was a last out winner. Went down at end of a drill right at the wire shortly after the Derby workers finished. So much for accredited 'safe'... Also just had a runaway off the track into the barn area.

More later after some trainer talks.

Uhg...hate to hear that. Thanks for the updates...keep them coming.

The guy has won several Kentucky Derby's and butchered several more very talented horses .... the least you can do is spell his last name right.

You getting on Byk about spelling is like me telling cannon he needs to drop a few lbs.:D

It was just payback for the spelling smack he was running on me last year when I spelled Denis of Cork - Dennis of Cork.

Well he had a bromance with Denis of Cork. It's to be expected.

I got my first look at the TGH patterns for the derby last night to look for horses that have run a race where they were given a zero or a negative number in a route, as I remembered that apparently no horse has won the derby without running a TGH number of zero or below in a 2 turn race, which is somewhat akin to Jon White's Beyer over a hundred idea.

Quality Road, Dunkirk, West Side Bernie, Musket Man, IWR are all horses that fit this criteria. I was surprised to see that "Just a Coincidence" for his third in the Wood received a -0.5 which meets the criteria.

Is there any chance this horse gets in from where he is on the earnings list?

The TGH pattern is actually impressive as the last 4 races since January are all improving steadily. I am not saying he is likely to win but a third or fourth to round out the exotics might not be out of the question......

did you get a chance to look at what the "rags" said also?

Baffert usually works his horses fast for atleast one work before a big race, I would surmise this was not Pioneerof the Nile's last serious work before the derby: 1:00.3

Also Pioneer's fastest works are in company, he was alone today so not a bad work, I would guess the next work will be in company to get him going.

Don't use Rags...TGH is a better product

ok

Don't worry about the time so much here as the track was pretty dull today. He actually went another quarter to make it a full 7f effort. The work was very solid and Baffert was really pleased with it. Next week's outing will be a slight blowout so this was his 'major' work according to Baffert.

Baffert said something to that effect today in his typically jocular fashion... He said had he been in company with a target they'd make Pioneer the Derby favorite off the work.

steve - did you see musket man or derek ryan ?

Not yet.. Will get to them tomorrow most likely. Musket Man is barned with the Godolphin pair, so I'll try to get to Ryan and Rick Mettee. Today was heavily skewed to the Pioneer and Revenge works, (which ended up on top of each other), and then Chocolate Candy.

I can see this coming a mile away.. POTN will drag me in and come Derby evening I will once again vow never to bet a syn only horse until one wins.:zz:

how did Chocolate Candy look ?

Ahem...

Chocolate Candy: 1:42.0 -- Surprising Whittingham-style work as he goes a 7f to 7f mile. Absolutely tired and blowing hard after, but I'd assume that's exactly what Hollendorfer wanted.

I think Colonel John breezed 5fs in 57 and change last year for his final work.

Exactly... To expand on this morning's thoughts, Mike Welsch said was laboring a bit through deep stretch but that may have been a bit a function of the way the track was and the length of his work.

Wait, Chocolate Candy is a gray?

Gray? Are sure you watched the right horse? CHOCOLATE CANDY is not gray.

Good thing Stevies on dapple patrol. :p

Sorry! My fault.. Meant that about General Quarters...

(Don't know why I confused it in with the Choc. Candy follow up...) :zz:

How did GQ work ? DRF's take wasn't positive.

He has a very strange, funky way of going..

Watch it there Derby Barbie... I'll put some dapples on your hind end.

go to the whip !!

Nothing beats confidence, typical Baffert. I just listened to Mike Welsch's DRF report, didn't get home in time for ATRB. If you are a backer of POTN you had to like what you heard. One of too many to consider.

Dapples are always a good sign

The same might happen to me. I like I Want Revenge a lot on top at this point, but I might like POTN underneath. Combined with his solid dirt/10f pedigree, positive works over the surface would obviously be a good sign, but I am not sure I quite agree with this statement from Welsch:
"Any questions regarding Pioneerof the Nile's ability to adapt to dirt after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces throughout his career should have been erased after watching him glide across the track immediately after the break." (http://www.drf.com/news/article/103135.html)

Isn't saying that one good work means that "any questions...have been erased," along with calling him a "demon on the dirt" in the title of the article, a bit over the top?

I look forward to a full post-Derby review of this thread. Aside from horses changing their colors for the Derby, I think the misleading information will be plentiful.

We'll see.

When is there ever an after-the-fact review?

Every horse is supposed to look good, work good, look sharp, work sharp, handle the surface in the mornings etc. etc. etc. Why? Because they're the best right now. They are the top 20, figuratively, of the group... they've survived a massive crop of peers, tons of races, lots of issues and have made it. So, to expect journalistic eyes (of all walks... even those who don't watch horses daily, but write about it in blogs and in papers as if they do) to separate them like one might a group of $10k claimers on a Thursday afternoon is wishful thinking.

For 364 days out of the year most people bet, wager and handicap without a single word about how a horse looks. This race is no different.

Derby works
 

Still looking for the video of the actual works....

Anybody have a link to some video?

So far I have found video of Mike Welsch telling me about the works...

and the YouTube page for Kentucky Derby has Michelle Yu showing me how to make a julep....

Did anyone working at the track today maybe point a camera at a horse?

Any help appreciated,

SOTN

I would probably expect the nation's highest priced yearling at public auction sold in '07 (Dunkirk) to look the best. And the nations highest priced 2yo sold at public auction in '08 (Desert Party) should probably work the best.

Horses like General Quarters (who was a 20k yearling - and debuted for a tag) shouldn't be dazzling either in the flesh or AM. Same goes for Musket Man - who was a 15K yearling and a 35K May 2yo sale RNA.

The two best horses in I Want Revenge (95K May 2yo RNA) and Quality Road (110K yearling RNA for a sire's who's avg was 2.5 times higher) should probably not be getting rave reviews at this time ... but since they are trained by a pair of magicians .. I wouldn't get that excited if they are.

Basically ... the only way I'd upgrade a horse is if there was a strong consensus going around that a horse like General Quarters or a Musket Man just looks amazing in the flesh and turned in some jaw dropping works.

The only way I'd downgrade a horse is if a horse like a Dunkirk or a Desert Party are getting poor reviews all around.