Derby Future Wager Pool 1 -- Feb. 12-15
 

2009 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 - Feb. 12-15
Number
Wagering Interest
Morning line odds

1
Beethoven
15-1

2
Big Drama
30-1

3
Capt. Candyman Can (g)
10-1

4
Chocolate Candy
50-1

5
Flying Pegasus
30-1

6
Friesan Fire
12-1

7
Giant Oak
15-1

8
Haynesfield
50-1

9
Hello Broadway
50-1

10
I Want Revenge
50-1

11
Midshipman
12-1

12
Notonthesamepage
30-1

13
Old Fashioned
10-1

14
Papa Clem
20-1

15
Patena
20-1

16
Pioneerof the Nile
20-1

17
Silver City
50-1

18
Stardom Bound (f)
12-1

19
Taqarub
30-1

20
The Pamplemousse
30-1

21
This Ones For Phil (g)*
12-1

22
Vineyard Haven
12-1

23
West Side Bernie
50-1

24
Mutuel Field ("All Others")
5-2

(f) - filly (g) - gelding * - Not nominated to Triple Crown

If anyone wants a real future bet in Vegas PM me and I'll be happy to make it at Wynn next week.

NT

Pioneer of the Nile will be much lower than 20-1 after Sunday IMO.

The betting ends on Sunday and Old Fashioned runs on Monday. That's like in prior years when the betting closed on Sunday at 6pm and a major race went off in Cali at 6:30.

I'd be very surprised if Hello Broadway is anywhere close to his morning line odds.
I'd say he's around 20-1 when the wagering closes.

Pioneerof the Nile is very high, relative to where he'll close. Capt Candyman Can is low relative to where he'll close off a sprint win in his return. Beethoven is very low off an off theboard return, in spite of a poor post etc. I wouldn't take a guaranteed 100-1 on any of the horses in Dubai and Notonthesamepage and This ones for Phil should be about 75-1 as they both look better suited to sprints. (Dutrow was quoted as saying something about improving Phil by taking him back to his "best distance.")

I don't know why they included This One's for Phil, given that he isn't even nominated. Geez, they only have 23 individual horses and you'd think they could at least list horses that are currently eligible. Seems kind of fraudulent to me because some folks playing these will just be looking at names and not even understand. But perhaps that's why they did it. Reminds me of that silly Calder Derby - KY Derby bet last year when nearly half of the horses listed for the latter part of the bet were no longer under consideration.

It's parimutuel so they make no more money by tricking people. Guess they thought the horse would take money despite not being nominated so didn't want to include him with the field.

not true - if you bet the horse and he doesnt run you dont get your money back... you lose

That's true, and does nothing to contradict what I just said.

OK, sure.:confused:


If the horse is not nominated the horse should not be an entry. simple as that.


CD keeps the money bet on a horse that doesnt run

the bet money doesn't get paid out to all the winning bettors? isn't that how they decide the odds? other than the takeout of course...

Yes, it does. That is why if you restrict it to 23 horses you want to include the 23 most likely to take money regardless of whether they are nominated. Otherwise the field entry winds up taking too much money and people won't bet it at the low odds.

Did Mike Battaglia even try to make the morning line odds somewhat sensible?

Capt. Candyman Can, Giant Oak, and Beethoven are all ridiculous morning line prices. Oh, wait a minute, they ran 1-2-3 in the Ky Jockey Club at CD. Right.

Notonthesamepage is 30-1 having done NOTHING at a distance beyond six furlongs yet Haynesfield is 50-1. Wow.

Stardom Bound is 12-1!?!?? God bless anyone who bets Stardom Bound at 12-1 or even 30-1 for that matter.

NT

Anybody have the PP's for all 401 horses nominated? DRF use to sell a "hard copy" form at newstands, but they haven't offered that the past few years.

Odds Corrected
 

Pioneerof The Nile's morning line odds were incorrectly listed at 20-1 on KentuckyDerby.com. His corrected ML odds are 12-1.

As for the other ridiculous ML numbers, they are staying as they are.

I have the brisnet ones, shoot me an email at sb008h@yahoo.com. If anyone gets the DRF ones let me know.

CD's inclusion is pretty idiotic and irresponsible (most likely just an oversight), but it doesn't benefit them in any way. In all actuality, since it's a parimutuel wager, it gives a slight edge to anyone betting on any other horse in the field. CD doesn't keep the money - this isn't a vegas future - it'll be paid out to whoever bets on the winning entry. . .

They have until March 28th to late nominate him for $6,000 which I'm sure they'll do if he wins the Fountain of Youth and is entered in the Florida Derby. It's hardly a big deal that he isn't nominated. Last year Eight Belles and Recapturetheglory were late nominees and both wound up in the Derby top five.

Good point. . . still seems a little odd to me, though. . .

Actually - I retract my previous statements - they've made it known that he's not nominated. . .

Arlington sends out vouchers for this, I have $35 in free future wagers. Gonna put it on Silver City and Papa Clem.

Normally I print off the past performances of the top 30 or so horses at Brisnet. Right now I get an error that says I can't print them off. Does anyone have a link? Thanks.

I found the top 23 at the DRF.com site. Guess my Road to the Roses stable will come from those.

DRF is offering PP's on all 401 Derby nominees to anyone who buys any DRF card during Feb 12-Feb 15.

Free past performances for Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager are now available in the Kentucky Derby Section of DRF.com.
PPs for all 401 Triple Crown Nominees are also available with the purchase of any Thursday-Sunday racecard.

--Dunbar

what time does the wagering start?

CURRENT ODDS -- 2:30pm SATURDAY

1 Beethoven John Ward, Jr. 34
2 Big Drama David Fawkes 56
3 Capt. Candyman Can Ian Wilkes 32
4 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 31
5 Flying Pegasus Ralph Nicks 26
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 17
7 Giant Oak Chris Block 27
8 Haynesfield Steven Asmussen 27
9 Hello Broadway Barclay Tagg 42
10 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 59
11 Midshipman Saeed bin Suroor 15
12 Notonthesamepage Wesley Ward 31
13 Old Fashioned J. Jones 6
14 Papa Clem Gary Stute 74
15 Patena Richard Dutrow, Jr. 33
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 13
17 Silver City W. Calhoun 24
18 Stardom Bound Robert Frankel 21
19 Taqarub Kiaran McLaughlin 50
20 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 28
21 This Ones for Phil Richard Dutrow, Jr. 70
22 Vineyard Haven Saeed bin Suroor 42
23 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen 33
24 All Other 3 YR Old 9/5

CURRENT ODDS -- 2:30pm SATURDAY


1 Beethoven John Ward, Jr. 15 37
2 Big Drama David Fawkes 30 54
3 Capt. Candyman Can Ian Wilkes 10 29
4 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 50 29
5 Flying Pegasus Ralph Nicks 30 27
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 12 18
7 Giant Oak Chris Block 15 27
8 Haynesfield Steven Asmussen 50 29
9 Hello Broadway Barclay Tagg 50 41
10 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 50 55
11 Midshipman Saeed bin Suroor 12 18
12 Notonthesamepage Wesley Ward 30 37
13 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 6
14 Papa Clem Gary Stute 20 45
15 Patena Richard Dutrow, Jr. 20 30
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 20 14
17 Silver City W. Calhoun 50 30
18 Stardom Bound Robert Frankel 12 22
19 Taqarub Kiaran McLaughlin 30 53
20 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 30 31
21 This Ones for Phil Richard Dutrow, Jr. 12 61
22 Vineyard Haven Saeed bin Suroor 12 40
23 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen 50 43
24 All Other 3 YR Old 5/2 8/5

here's a link to the closing odds.....

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...1finalodds.pdf

exact payouts are now up on the derby website.

Got a deuce on Beethoven , Capt. Candyman Can & Hello Broadway just for shiats & giggles.

For some of the financial guys out there, what are the financial incentives for Churchill and this 500k and them being able to hold on to it for 75 days? Just curious. The accrued interest can't be much, but it might pay Arlington's electric bill for a month or two

I actually thought there were very few decent value plays in this first pool. Unlike in past years, I felt a ton of the horses had zip chance when it came to truly thinking about Derby horses. And then the value in this pool versus Vegas/Wynn made me a non-starter.

Just because I had a good day on Friday I put a bit on Silver City and Flying Pegasus for the fun of having it.

He ran super well from that post the other day, and people often forget he beat the winner last year too.

that's the exact right comparison to make too. Odds vs Vegas/Wynn

I liked the breeders cup pools CD ran a few years ago. Loved the value for the euros in it on turf. They were bet down in Vegas at Wynn, but nobody was betting on them at all in the CD pools and some you got 15X+ what they were listed at in Wynn. Couldn't believe nobody made the comparison between Wynn/LV Hilton and the CD pools to see if there was any extra value in them.