Kentucky Derby Future Wager
 

It's annoying as hell that 10 years after this bet was introduced, we are still only offered 24 betting interests. The reason for this is related to the tote companies. However, I have an idea for a solution that would allow us to bet on hundreds of individual horses like in Vegas.

Instead of offering us one field of 24 betting interests to bet on, Churchill Downs could offer, say, 30 fields of 24 betting interests. The horses would be listed alphabetically starting in Race 1, and after every 24 horses a new "race" would be created until every horses is listed. Obviously, the tote system could not be used to calculate odds accurately, because multiple "races" would comprise the same bet. But this can be done manually with little effort I would imagine. Takeout would be no problem.

For example, if I like Old Fashioned, and he is listed in Race 12 as horse #15, I would say to the teller "Churchill Downs race 12, $2 to WIN on #15."

Bottom line: One bet made up of many different fields, or races, with all the money combined at the end to make up one pool. Odds calculated manually every hour so bettors can make informed judgments.

Why not just have 720 horses numbered 1-720?

The tote system will not accommodate that many individual betting interests.

how about even simpler, you bet a "trifecta" of the horse you want- so if Old Fashioned is #318 you bet 3-1-8? it's a cop-out by CDI by not having every horse nominated for the TC listed.

This is perhaps the grandest falsehood ever perpetrated on racing fandom. Las Vegas can make book on EVER SINGLE T.C. NOMINEE, and many more un-nominated horses, but 'the tote system cannot accomodate that many individual betting betting interests'. In fact they can. The reality is that no one seems interested in taking the time to create the scenario that would make it work.

But if CDI wants to cling to the hackneyed tote excuse, as an alternative, take Steve Crist's suggestion and allow for exacta wagering to spice this tired thing up.

Now I'm never going to be able to hedge the 75:1 I took on Nicanor.

that would be nice, but what if you bet a 9 / 15 exacta and the 15 is scratched?

I can tell you this much, I'm going to Vegas this weekend and wouldn't mind finding some horses to throw a few bucks on and I'll carry my ass to Wynn to do it. A Derby Future Wager with 24 betting interests is a joke.

Something has to be done to spice it up, just as Steve said.

NT

Like all future wagers, if your horse doesn't run you lose.

I'm fairly certain if I look long enough, I can still find my uncashed future wager on Rockport Harbor:wf

Was that to win the Derby.. or win a race ever?

LOL... I think I've still got my $100 "Rocky" future ticket.

Steve, just for the record, I have been told by high-level execs at CD that the tote system in place RIGHT NOW will not allow it. Changes would have to be made. Then the issue of cost comes into play.

I still have my Flashy Bull ticket but, sadly, don't know what happened to the one for Itsallaboutthechase. :eek: :confused: :D

Figured you for a Soul Warrior fan this year with his dam being the same as your beloved namesake.

NT

Oh! Thanks for the heads up. I'm a pedigree moron and so didn't know but will keep an eye on that one! :)

I found mine, right next to my Lawyer Ron future ticket.:(

Oh my god thank you for that. I feel immediately better about the Cowboy Cal ticket hanging on my fridge.

Then they need a new tote company. In 2009 you cant write software to cover 700 horses? That is a joke.

Maybe if Churchill spent more time and money on its tote system instead of screwing around in Silicon Valley and replacing every vice president every other year it could be done. I mean why spend money on a tote system when your main income is wagering?

I could have forgiven myself for having a future ticket on Monba...but betting on him on race day, now that was just unforgiveable.

Like everything else in this industry, it's a matter of dollars, risk, and job security.

Is it possible to allow for 700+ betting interests? Of course, just not with the current software and hardware. Upgrading software and hardware would cost money, and as the bet is handled now, it does not generate enough money to justify the expense.

Obviously if the tote system was upgraded, the bet would draw more dollars. But as I have said before and as everyone knows, NO ONE MAKES CHANGES IN THIS INDUSTRY UNLESS THEY HAVE UNDENIABLE PROOF THAT THE CHANGE WON'T RESULT IN A TEMPORARY PROFIT LOSS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THEM LOSING THEIR JOB.

And so, we are stuck with 24 betting interests...unless they implement my plan or one of the others.

How much could it possibly cost? Isn't it 2009?

if youve seen the tote machines at crc you would know they seem to have been designed by cavemen. there are bets you are either unable to make at all that are available at other tracks or the way you must punch in the plays are ridiculous

There is only one certainty in this industry, if you an exec at CDI you wont be around long anyway

programmers worst nightmare
 

triple digit numbers :eek:

I'm still waiting to cash that Sweet Catomine ticket I had.

Have you gotten the AM Tote machines yet, if not you are supposed to be next. The new tote machines here at FG and Arlington are what CDI is moving to, I was talking with the guy in charge of them last week at the track. But anyway, we can use our twinspires.com cards here in the tote machines, Arlington will be able to also supposedly this summer, and I think Calder is the next one they are going to. He said CDI wanted it all tried out at the other tracks before they put them in Kentucky.

As far as this having anything to do with future wagers, I don't know but when I see him again I will ask him if it can accomodate the large nimbers, if I can stand him being in my face and violating my 3 ft of personal space, he is a strange dude...:p

How is it possible that CD's system cannot accommodate wagering on individual horses up to any reasonable number. It can accommodate wagering on all possible superfecta and high 5 wagers in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. The Vegas system isn't pari-mutuel, so that's comparing apples and oranges, but there is no excuse for the failure to provide more than 24 separate interests.

That started last summer at AP too. Basically acts as a debit card that you can load and wager as normal, but much quicker. If you want printed tickets as receipts, that is an option as well.

Oh, he told me AP couldn't use them yet, told you he was a strange dude.

We've always had the "debit" cards here with FGNetBet so didn't even think about not being able to use TS cards. I like the machines, much better than scientific games before.

thanks for the info, hope they get here soon

Any idea who you're going to use?

I'd be curious (don't laugh!) about the odds on Poltergeist but don't tell anyone.

Not my finest moment... :D

There's a few I have my eye on, like Patena is available at Lucky's at 75-1. He's only 40-1 at Wynn. Soul Warrior is 200-1 but that will change after the Risen Star.

If you want to see the most updated odds go to Dave Tuley's viewfromvegas.com and on the main racebook notes page he should have a link to the lucky's and Wynn odds.

NT

The only 'technical issue' I see in my proposal is listing the willpays before the pool closes- and early on in the betting there will be some odd results with $0 wagered on most of the interests- because most tracks don't have the capability of displaying trifecta willpays. However, with a competent linemaker estimating probables it wouldn't be an issue because whether a name closes at 100-1 or 125-1 isn't a huge deal to 99% of players this would attract.

What they could do as an alternative to showing every name on a rolling basis is show the top 25 or so that have taken the most money and odds on those.

I've made about 10 sucker, I mean "future" bets this year in Vegas at the Wynn. Most recently, I got Poltergeist at 125-1, which was Monday night.
As long as there's value, I'll take a shot.

Gayego still has to finish the 2008 Derby so I can check my ticket.

Even with just 23 entries, some horses go off at over 100-1. With 400+ entries, we will have many 1000-1 horses and probably a few 10000-1 horses. A 10000-1 horse would have something like $30 on it going into the last day. Another $150 bet in the last few hours would change that dramatically If you had bet $5 in the hope of seeing a monster $50,000 payday, you would be disappointed to get only $12,500. With half the betting coming on the last day, drops like this will be common.

With 24 betting interests, the last day's betting is reasonably uniform, with the exception of horses that run on the Saturday of the weekend. With 400+ betting interests, the odds will be flying all over the place.

--Dunbar

Your math is probably correct, but I don't think wild odds swings would be as rampant as you are suggesting. Any horse with only $30 bet on it going into the last day isn't going to attract much attention, even at 10,000-1.