The Preakness looks like a road show of Derby wanna B's
 

If it wasn't for the drunks in the infield, this may go down as the dullest Preakness of all time, at least in my years.

How one-sided can it be. If BB doesn't win by 20 lengths, will everybody be mad?

Yea, I know, anything can happen. I just hope nothing tragic happens.

So what do we have, maybe Gayego, who made it to 17th Derby Day.

It might be a nice day to watch Citation reruns.

I would guess BB's odds will be lower than Easy Goers odds 3-5. The only difference, EG got beat that day. Not so likely BB will follow suit. Last I looked, we don't have any Sunday Silence shooters in this field.

Heck, they will still get 100,000 people to come and get hammered.

maybe a drunk will wander onto the track and take a swing at a horse... that may be BB's only possible obstacle!

It is a terrible field, much like the derby. Thank goodness for Casino Drive or Big Brown could win a TC having beaten some of the slowest horses in recent memory.

It looks like Harlem Rocker, Casino Drive, and Unbridled Heart are going to be the big 3 with Big Brown. So we have 4 big-time 3yr olds. That is pretty much par for the course.

I have never seen such a crop though that is really Ohio Derby/West Virginia Derby type material.

It's fascinating that the star of YouTube sensation 'My New Haircut' has a shot to be an owner of the next triple crown winner.

Iavarone in his younger days

What of Denis of Cork? Seems like a lot of people have forgotten him. He reminds me of Birdstone abit, perhaps more because of his smallish stature but if he does decide to go in The Belmont he would be worth a look. He was not properly handled going into the derby with not enough foundation yet he ran a promising third, he could now be ready to run his career best effort at Belmont Park.

I like him but his Illinois Derby was terrible and his derby was nice but not spectacular. He could be nice. Maybe win a big race like the Haskell if the top horses don't show up. He looks like a horse that might win a decent race like the Northern Dancer or Dwyer.

Good luck in the Dwyer against horses like Unbridled's Heart and Biker Boy.

4-3-1-2

Biker Boy is a 93 beyer, 3 rag horse. Unbridled's Heart beat nothing and had everything go his way. Denis of Cork ran a solid third in a race you might have heard of called the Kentucky Derby. He also threw up a 96 beyer at Oaklawn in a 8.5f race, like the Dwyer. So he probably doesn't need luck. He fits there perfectly.

The Dwyer is about a month after the Belmont and if he likes the Belmont track I would suspect you see Denis of Cork there. They still might pass on the Belmont and go to the Northern Dancer at Churchill though.

Denis of Cork is definitely in the Any Given Saturday category of horses.

F-A-A-C

I'm a big Denis of Cork fan but there's no way that he has the talent or potential of Biker Boy or especially UB's Heart. Biker Boy has already run faster than 93 - in his second start . . . and the sky appears to be the limit with UBH - DofC's debut was nice and he ran like an 82 vs. UBH's 100

Denis of Cork's 96 beyer in the Southwest makes me believe he fits right in. Didn't he just run 3rd in the Kentucky Derby with a tough trip? Denis of Cork is definitely in their league. They are nice horses but they have an awful lot to prove. The sport is full of horses that never reach their potential. Denis of Cork is a stakes winner and finished 3rd in the biggest grade 1 to date for 3yr olds.

It wasn't a tough trip so much as he was on the rail eating dirt the entire way. When you trail 19 horses for about 8f of a 10f race you are going to get quite a bit thrown up at you. Even on the replay you could see how bad it was back there.

His trip wasn't rough at all - but I do think it was a huge tactical error to have him that far back . . .

You're right. . . but I think he's got more early speed than he showed. . .

000000:eek:

Considering Denis of Cork was just lucky to get into the derby as the 21st horse, I thought he ran a pretty nice race. He was the only horse to make up any significant ground that was not on or near the pace. He may be no world beater but given David Carroll opted to bypass The Rebel Stakes in favor of a single prep The Illinois Derby leading to the Kentucky Derby, he may now be ready to run a career race in the Belmont. Casino Drive will now be probably the 'hot' second choice if Big Brown wins the Preakness which would atleast make DOC interesting.

"If it wasn't for the drunks in the infield, this may go down as the dullest Preakness of all time, at least in my years."

that's like saying if it weren't for the art the louvre would be dull.

"How one-sided can it be. If BB doesn't win by 20 lengths, will everybody be mad?"

i checked the rugby board. they're going to be ok.

'Yea, I know, anything can happen. I just hope nothing tragic happens."

like an asteroid destroying civilization?

"So what do we have, maybe Gayego, who made it to 17th Derby Day."

ok. that would be worse than an asteroid.

"It might be a nice day to watch Citation reruns."

or bad bruce willis movies. involving large rocks. hitting planets.

"I would guess BB's odds will be lower than Easy Goers odds 3-5. The only difference, EG got beat that day. Not so likely BB will follow suit. Last I looked, we don't have any Sunday Silence shooters in this field."

^
seemingly immune to asteroid reference

"Heck, they will still get 100,000 people to come and get hammered."

i give up.

First of all, Biker Boy got a 97 Beyer ( raw fig of 106 ). Second of all, Unbridled's Heart beat a relatively strong field of maidens, and beat them handily, and I'm not sure how setting a fast pace and drawing away with ease from a solid field, while running relatively faster than a horse you have anointed the second coming, Casino Drive ( who, by the way, had an absolutely perfect trip which you casually ignore ) fits your description of " everything going his way. " But, I guess when you post with an agenda its easy to ignore reality.

The 96 Beyer by Denis of Cork, slower than both Biker Boy and Unbridled's Heart, was earned under the most optimal conditions any horse can have. His Derby performance, by the way I bet him in the race, was decidedly mediocre, as all he did was suck up late, and never made any move whatsoever to attempt to win the race. He's OK, and I hope he does well, but right now I would prefer some of the lightly raced up and comers to the exposed likes of Denis of Cork.

Oh yeah, Denis of Cork couldn't have warmed up Any Given Saturday. I see you saved your most indefensible for last.

BTW, just a couple of questions.

How do you quantify what a solid group of maidens is? Unfortunately, I don't have the Saturday DRF, so I can't recall the PP, but I don't recall that field being filled with promising horses. Most of them had had several mediocre starts and none (going into the race, anyway) looked to be particularly talented.

Another thing - are you just talking about raw figures? If so, then I guess I can see your point about UH. However, that horse just went to the front and drew away (impressively,obviously) from an ordinary group of maidens; he didn't overcome anything. Why is this horse different than any other horse who gets an easy lead and is never challenged? I only ask this because we've seem plenty of those types of performances and usually the comments (on this and other boards) are tempered in their enthusiasm as the winner had everything his own way.

I'll preface my last question/comment by saying that I saw you on the OTB channel on Sunday, so I know you liked Casino Drive's performance...... you didn't knock him in any way. However, I'm just curious as to why he is now being deemed to have had a perfect to sort of mitigate his performance. He did break pretty slowly (not terribly, but it was still not a good break) - isn't it to his credit that he dragged Kent back into the race? He also went through horses easily and didn't hesitate in drawing away. We're talking about a colt who hadn't run in almost three months, who had to deal with quarantine issues in Japan and then a long trip over here. His trainer said before the race that he didn't think CD was in winning shape.

Thanks in advance for your opinion -

The Belmont will be Denis of Cork's best chance to win a G1 or big G2 this year. He can ration his speed which is necessary to win the Belmont. He's not that good at shorter distances so would likely get dusted in the Dwyer.

He's actually the complete opposite of Any Given Saturday. AGS would crush him up to 9 furlongs and Denis would probably be better from 10 furlongs and up. Jazil or Birdstone are better comparisons to DoC.

We had a great crop last year, other than Big Brown there's a drop off in talent but perhaps much less depth than last yr though I do like Harlem Rocker he seems to be an up and comer, in his third race he beyers a 106 under less than optimal conditions closing into a moderate pace. With continued expected improvement he could be a nice horse.

Like you I like Denis of Cork's running style for a race as long as the belmont, however it's fair to say maybe he just isn't fast enough. I think there is room for improvement from his derby, not sure why he didn't run in The Oaklawn preps, Caroll almost even missed the derby due to lack of earnings. Indicating to me maybe he hasn't been managed the best this spring.

You don't need to be fast to win the Belmont. You just need to ration your speed. If you can just run each two furlong stretch between 24 and 24.5 you have a great chance of winning.

Betsy
 

OK, first on Unbridled's Heart. You say it was an " ordinary " group of maidens. I disagree. Ordinary would imply it was average....it wasn't. Amped came off a solid third place behind a horse ( the second finisher ) who came back to win a " fast " race and beat a horse who broke its maiden in its next start on Derby Day. You had some horses that ran low to mid 80 Beyer figures and Amped had run a 90. These are not ordinary or average horses for a maiden race these days. Not even close. No, they are not world beaters, but they're OK. Secondly, while yes Unbridled's Heart went to the lead and dictated the race, he went strong fractions and won off by almost ten lengths and ran a speed figure faster than all but two of the KY runners had run in their careers. I don't care what kind of trip he had, and he made his own trip, that is a noteworthy debut.

On Casino Drive.....I'm not knocking him. He ran a very nice race as well, especially for a second career start. But, other than the slightly slow break, he had an easy trip. This is a fact. The only thing I suggested in my post that the original poster knocks one horse for getting a good set-up while ignoring that same scenerio for a horse he has an affinity for. That's all. Right now, based on their races Saturday, I don't see how anybody can be all excited by Casino Drive and not feel similar enthusiasm, at least, for Unbridled's Heart. Casino Drive beat Mint Lane. Enough said.

As for my comments about Casino Drive on the NYRA show.....We have a short amount of time to talk about ten races. That is the focus of the show. We needed to touch on Casino Drive to begin. He did look good, and I said that, but I also wasn't going to waste three minutes giving a detailed description of my complete feelings about his race at the expense of what was most important to the show. There's always another more appropriate time for that. I have no criticism of Casino Drive.