Eight Belles form
 

What happened to her was awful and sad.

What probably will go ignored though is that she was one of the all-time greatest form reversals in horse racing history.

The very first race ever run over the synthetic Tapeta surface was the 100K Inaugural Stakes at Presque Isle Downs. The favorite was the 3-year-old filly Cantrel - who was a mind-boggling 40-to-50 point form reversal.



Obviously you noticed a trainer change and a long layoff before the insane spike in form. Cantrel, with her walking time bomb form, broke down in the race and had to be destroyed.

Unlike Cantrel, Eight Belles mind-boggling form reversal came without either a trainer change or a layoff.



Something happened in the four week span between December 23rd and Jan 21st that turned a very mediocre filly with 5 career starts into suddenly the best 3yo filly in an above average crop in almost an instant.

Her 15 length allowance win at FG was probably the single most puzzling race I've ever come across when doing analytical work on a card.

I was trying to build a case for King's Silver Son in the Rebal Stakes at Oaklawn. He was coming off of a win at FG in which he only recieved an 80 Beyer in his last start.

As I studied the FG races that day, I almost fell on the floor when I saw that an N2L race for fillies went 20 points faster than KSS did in a similarly paced route on the same card. All that popped into my head was 'did this filly I never head of have the greatest trip of all-time - or is she some lightly raced phenom cut out to be the next Inside Information - or is a horse I'm trying to make a case for in a Graded Stake really a routine 5K claimer?'

I compared her trip to KSS's - shockingly, if anyting, KSS's was a touch easier.

Now came the real exciting part - you get feeling like you do before opening up a gift as you get ready to pull up her form and watch her previous race.

But, it wasn't a race - it was five of them! This wasn't some nice debut winner who took care of 'biz in her debut and really put it all together in a big way next out. This was a filly with a very medicore form. When I watched her first five races, I discovered not only was her form mediocre - but so was her talent.

In case anyone didn't know - KSS, off his 80 Beyer, was 2nd in the Rebel next out. He wasn't quite a 5K claimer after all.

Eight Belles repeated her magical performance four more times before breaking both front ankles while galloping a quarter mile after the wire. An odd way to go for a filly with an odd form.

I don't know if you look at the sheets, but it really stands out on there as well. from her debut to the 12/23 race she gradually went from a 14 to a 7.

then she reeled off 5 straight 1's or 0's if you include the derby.

usually you don't see this type of disjointed pattern. i'd love to know what happened, what change precipitated the improvement.

interesting stuff.

the light went on after the 2nd place finish and she understood what they wanted her to do. after that Eight Belles "wanted" to be a champion.

I think part of it was her huge size and she took awhile to fill out and grow up. If I remember watching her early races...she never changed leads at all in the stretch...staying on her left lead. (I could be wrong about that but I'm pretty sure it was her.). Watching all her races in 2008, she changed to her right lead right on cue in the stretch. I don't know what happened November 30th, but if you throw out that race, she was also progressing upward steadily her two year old season. I don't think it's magic as it is well documented she was a 17 hand filly...quite large. And if you toss that 11/30 race she was progressing at 2 as well.

It looks good to me you just don't see it every day.

Sprint she ran a 53
2nd time out 1st time routing 67
3rd time out 2nd time routing 10 length win
4th time out 1st time Alw try 7th place
5th time out 2nd time Alw 2nd place
6th time out Alw no winners since Big Time Score
So almost every race she was getting better learning each time out what was going on around her. Some horses are made into Champion's other are born that way. Ether way she dies way to soon for anyones liking. She'll go down as one of the greatest Filly's to race in a long time.

DrugS,

Didn't you post this earlier? I would swear I've read this exact same thing before somewhere. Deja vu?

I actually gave her a 105 speed figure on turn around day.

Yeah - I probably did post something about it earlier.

A few people also commented to me about how radical the form reversal was when they first saw it - two of which who post here (IC and BTW)

At a time when you hear rumors about exotic pain killing drugs that they don't have tests for - like the stuff Biancone got caught possessing - it just makes you wonder a little when you see a horse improve 13 lengths on figures in the span of a month, hold the form, and than run until collapsing from ankle fractures in both front legs.

Maybe something was bothering her a little when she stunk - she was given something that cured what was bothering her - and it allowed her to run hard at an extremely high level. Not being able to feel the pain isn't always a good thing.

Perhaps I am just way to jaded for even having a thought like that. I don't know.

Even if it is a jaded way of thinking, it is also, in turn, a very realistic way of thinking.

Well the lazy thing to do is blame it on the surface. That way the problem will be fixed with a generic band-aid (synthetic) until the vets come up with a drug that's 10x more numbing than the ones used today.

Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.

i know lukas said he came to the realization he was training charismatic wrong-that when he changed his approach, the horse changed his ways. of course anyone who wishes to be a dwl detractor would say otherwise....

Just looking through the Beyers she went on a 53, 67, 74, 78 progression through 12/23 as a 2 year old tossing the 11/30 race. She did not change leads in the stretch as a 2 year old even on 12/23. Would an 85-90 Beyer in her next start have been an ok progression or believable?? Granted 100 was a huge jump. I'm not sure if I would consider it a potential magic potion drug being given to her. Of course it's possible. I know the preferred method of running is changing to your right lead in the stretch and she did it perfectly all 5 of her starts in 2008 when she absolutely did not do that in 2007. I would attribute that development in her to at least a few Beyer points perhaps in her magic jump to 100 combined with just continued progression from her 2 yr old improvement pattern combined with maturity and growing a bit into her massive frame.

That form turn around is pretty stagering, might be more to her turn around other then better hay and oats, at least thats what I think when I see such a sudden turn around.

Charismatic didn't have one gigantic leap like Eight Belles - but he had two very significant spikes in his form.



You notice the 9 point move up (above his prior top) after he was 2nd in the claiming race - but the scary leap was the 13 point move up (above his prior top) between April 3rd and April 18th.

In the Lexington, which was his 14th career start, Charismatic improved 8.5 lengths over his career best race on figures. He held that form though the entire triple crown series before breaking down after the wire in the Belmont.

I'm always a little suspicous when I see those huge unexpected and unexplainable spikes in form - though the vast majority of them come in situations like with Cantrel (off a layoff and for a new trainer) .. the type of form of a Charismatic and Eight Belles is extremely rare. Huge improvements on firmly established form, while going for the same trainer, without much rest between starts on move-up day.

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

I'm usually no conspiracy theorist and usually take breakdowns as an unfortunate part of the game.

I have to admit those PP's really bother me. Maybe there is a good reason they shouldn't, but they do.

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

[xx

Maybe she grew up, maybe what was hurting healed thru competent vetinary care, maybe she grew mentally. If Jones is a good trainer and honorable he got the filly to run better which is precisely his job. Speculating or inferring that the ONLY way to make a horse run faster is to cure her woes with drugs isn't too responsible.

DrugS you are industry guy now. Either stand behind Jones or indict him don't tease us with what might or could be. Make a stand! Right or wrong people will respect it as such.

That is certainly a possibility. I don't know much about Jones and his reputation. I always thought it was ok. In the 21st century you pretty much have to question everything I guess. I hope that is not the case here. My only defense is that she was indeed making steady improvements through her 2 year old season tossing the 11/30 race. Mediocre compared to what?? I would say a 2 yr old filly running high 70s Beyers is up there on the scale...far from a grade 1 stakes 2 year old filly...but well up on the charts. AS far as the lead change thing...I would hope to think it's just a case of training or her figuring it out. I refer you to Lawyer Ron as a 2 year old who had a similar type problem often at age 2...not as regularly as Eight Belles but many races he didn't change. Then all of a sudden switched with regularity and his numbers spiked astronimically very late 2 yr old or early 3 yr old year. Much of this was attributed to him moving to dirt from running on grass and poly at 2.

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

You know much more than me. I would ask you what would be a normal development curve?? 5 lengths?? 8 lengths?? 3 lengths?? What would have been the highest believable Beyer for her to get in that January Fairgrounds race??

Another question is what says she was not talented at 2?? So if Aldebutante or Rampillion are running high 70s Beyers late this year we should consider them talentless?? I honestly don't see where those numbers suggest she had no talent.

Jesustapdancingchrist.

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

No kidding Freddy.

It wasn't that she devloped - it was how much she developed, how unexpected the development was, how incredibly rare her form is, and how she ended by collapsing with fractures in both ankles while galloping out well after the wire.

I'm hardly an industry guy.

There is no stand to make. Something happened in four weeks time that improved Eight Belles in a dramatic way. When you look at the way she went out - it makes the form reversal impossible to ignore.

That's all.

No, I'm asking questions to someone who knows more than me. I'm simply trying to learn stuff. I find this thread fascinating. I'm trying to learn as much as I can.

Yeah, that was my first thought. She won her maiden by 10. Did anyone do their own figures that day to determine whether she might have run in the high 80s and they split it out because the number was too hard to believe?

DrugS she got good fast the same way that pig Pryo got bad fast..lol

You are walking people down a dangerous spectulative road. Can you be right? of course...Do you know the situation well enough to do such speculating especially when you are smart enough to accurately twist some of the facts to make your case..NOPE and therefore I think its to dangerous to lead people in such a direction.

Basically you could ask Steve to get Jones on the air and ask him how 8 belles got so good so fast. Maybe we get an answer which helps enlighten the subject vs. darkening a bad day with more crap

As noted above... I have no issue with questioning "where did that race come from" as it's highly relevant and debatable, however I don't agree with who he compared TO, a 50 point jump up from a maiden claiming ranks race when switched to a confirmed cheat. To call it one of the "greatest form reversals ever" is competely inaccurate.

Additionally, Beyer figures have become so massaged on a daily basis it's IMPOSSIBLE to say conclusively whether one number is truly accurate and repeatable. As CJ noted, even the Derby Beyer this year is questionable at best.

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

I'd rather use a blindfold and an abacus than resort to BRIS numbers. To be fair though, I couldn't use Beyer numbers blindly either.

And Recapturetheglory tossed ET in the tunnel going to the track, he ran his ass off

Would you use ANY number blindly for real money? Of course not.

He ran big, I was very surprised.

Of course on the bris figures the three starts for Recapturetheglory on the dirt were 95, 99, 104 which hardly seems like an unrealistic progression.

Exactly correct.

When I saw this thread yesterday, I took a look all of EB's races, from 11/30 on.
Here's what I found:

1) 11/30 wide both turns, widest backstretch, no cover, mild move 2nd turn, then backed up --- HARD TO TELL what lead she was on in the stretch, as she was not in the picture from just after they entered the stretch to just before the wire --- only way to tell is with the headon, which, as best as I can determine, is NOT available

2) 12/23 --- similarly wide both turns and backstretch (no cover) but made significant move to take the lead entering and was run down by a last mover (who came OUTSIDE of her). significant improvement AND didn't change leads, with VERY UGLY action That she ran 2nd with a similarly wide trip without changing leads, and being last moved, is a HUGE, but obvious, improvement.

3) 1/21 ----- INSIDE TRIP, changed leads, easily. She was still running green in the stretch, however. Improving horse, better trip, lead change results in a WIPEOUT effort.

While the improvement was a huge one, it certainly was evident that the filly was improving. And anyone on top of it got a whopping 5:2. Mucho work, for those that tracked her, for little reward. Then again, we can debate the reason for her improvement, which is much more important than scoring.

Yes - often with a trainer change and a layoff - and not always repeted in subsquent races. which is why I used Cantrel as an example. The layoff - trainer change combo didn't happen in Eight Belles case.

Anyone who doesn't think she made a monster improvment in the race she won by 15 lengths, while not favored in the betting, with a conservative 100 Beyer .. I just don't know.

I'm not saying every horse who makes a mind-boggling form reversal, and proceeds to repeat the race over and over, ends up breaking down on the track. They don't. The vast majority of them disappear though.

Alina, who was 2nd to Eight Belles in the Fantasy, is an example of a dramatic form reversal by a horse at a top level who hasn't yet tailed off. She fits the traditional mode of trainer change plus layoff .. Eight Belles doesn't.

Bruce L Jackson trained In Excess, who was one of the better horses I've ever seen in my life - before anyone accuses him of being "a bum" like they did with Pino, who consistantly wins at about a 20% clip.