DRF Derby Chat w/Beyer tonight
 

From 7-8pm if anyone is interested.

At least he's always entertaining even if he has picked fewer Derby winners than any public figure in the past 30 years. His crowning achievement was hitting the superfecta with his bottom 4 the year Giacomo won...I guess he wasn't alone that year.

I find it a lot more fun to just look at the transcript afterwards, as the chat itself drags on. DRF.com usually has it up just a few minutes after it's over and as mentioned above, Beyer is always interesting.

He has is opinion and he sticks to them.

If you Google, you can still find those transcripts online. I'm posting these because they're interesting to point out right or wrong picks.

From 2007:
SJS:Q: Andy, is Street Sense going to finally break the BCJ jinx?

Andy_Beyer: Definitely he can. I don't really believe in this jinx. Unlike some of the other historical guidelines that are important, I think the failure of BCJ winners to win the Derby is a fluke. Plenty of horses have run well in both races--they just haven't won both. It's time for somebody to do it.


bigshu:Q: Will you be using Cowtown Cat in the exotics?

Andy_Beyer:Only if I can find a trifecta on the last three finishers. He is my number-one hate in the race. When he won the Illinois Derby, he got the lead in a moderate pace on a strongly rail-favoring track at Hawthorne. The time before that he gook advantage of a similar inside bias on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. He's a bum.

From 2006:
Barbaro is the mystery horse in this race. I think he's the most talented horse in the field--though perhaps he's only a turf horse. Like most people, I wasn't thrilled by his Florida Derby. But he was breaking from post 10 at 1 1/8 miles that day, forcing Prado to hustle to get position. On the turf, this was a horse with a phenomenal late kick. I wonder if he could be sitting 10th mid way through the Derby and unleash that kick when the race falls apart.


From 2005:
dabomb_2: Q: I see alot of people talking about Andromeda's Hero, What are his chances?
ANDY_BEYER: You're the only person talking about Andromeda's Hero. He has no chance whatsoever.

gator: Q: Andy, Get it done. Make some prediction on the Derby instead of all this bull*&^%.
ANDY_BEYER: I think Bellamy Road is going to confirm the legitimacy of that 120 figure, that he has going to deliver an overpowering performance, and that by Saturday night he will be hailed as the sport's new superstar.

2004:
SANTANAJIMI: Q: Are you implying that the Mullins juice factor should be taken into play?
Andy Beyer: Perish the thought!

Bump. Starts in 5 minutes.

He just said he's throwing out Colonel John.

Ninetoone do you keep getting the same message over and over again in the chat?

trying to reconnect now...

didn't have that problem...just lost the connection. the reconnect feature worked for me. Good luck.

I'm keeping an eye on the chat, my questions are never addressed, though.:(

You can ask us if you want to Mike :D

I sure hope the pace in the Derby is faster than the pace of this chat.

This is the worst chat I have ever witnessed, through four questions.

Mike, was that your question? You da man!

Well, golly jeez, he just answered my question

Maybe he thought you were Watchmaker.

I wonder how he decides which questions get asked?

He just tossed Big Brown.

And just mushed Pyro :(

I think he picked Street Sense last year. . .

He did.

Tonight's chat was pretty bland. But it's tough to have a strong opinion without the post positions I guess.

Pretty much..he gave Z fortune and Gayego props for their strong performances in the Ark, pimped Pyro because he's got a 20-1 future bet on 'em, and basically dismissed the rest...I'd like to see his opinions after the draw..

im a beyer fan

but this chat was about as insightful as asking my garbage man who he likes in this race.

too many surface and industry questions

-bt-

Agreed. I was hoping for a little more insight on some other horses such as Denis of Cork or Visionaire. I did like reading his plans for how he may be betting the race.

Only four can win according to "his" speed figures; Big Brown, Gayego, Z Fortune & Recapturetheglory.....I'm tossing them.

I'm not tossing Big Brown or Z Fortune.

i don't think he is off the mark at all on this. based on speed alone I would have to agree him.

I think the entire chat seems to reflect at least a muted disinterest in this Derby by a lot of people.

I would only throw one, maybe two of those four. I'm slowly becoming a
Denis of Cork fan. He has "piqued" my curiosity.

Which is slightly disappointing to me. Sure it's a down year, but it's still
imo the greatest horse racing day of the year.:)

I think it's encouraging in many ways that people don't just buy the " it's the Derby - it must be great " argument.

This year's Derby is like going to a great restaurant and getting a lousy meal.

I'm still hoping we have a "Diamond in the Rough". Very good analogy though.

Pretty fair assessment. I was comparing it last night to going to Vegas and staying at the El Cortez.

Normally Beyer has a pretty passionate opinion on the race and he didn't seem excited at all about any of the runners. Other than Big Brown, and sentimental choice Smooth Air, I don't either.

Hopefully we'll still get plenty of dumb money in the pools and get some solid Pick 3 and Four payouts. But agreed with the assessment of the Derby itself.

Ugh.............
 

That was about as uninspiring as I've ever seen Mr. Beyer. What a colossal waste of time. He usually writes an article for the Washington Post which names his Derby pick on Friday, and I hope that's better, but that was incredibly vanilla.

I agree here totally. The biggest problem in the game today, IMO, is that too many people sit on their hands and are afraid to change things up. You often accuse me of being some sort of visionary with all of these outside the box ideas but I really think that the game needs more people like me, people that aren't afraid to challenge old standards and create new ones. Sitting stagnant and just putting the product out there figuring that by name alone, you will be ok, is dangerous. I think that's what we are seeing with the Derby and the Triple Crown. I think that the sport has been tremendously lucky that there have been so many Derby/Preakness winners over the past 20 years that have help keep the interests up. But all one has to do is look at the Belmont numbers when there is no TC on the line and compare to when there is. To say it's like night and day is an understatement. I also feel that the luck is going to run out and we are going to hit a stretch where there will be 3-5 TC winners over the course of a decade and then people will start to wonder why it's become so easy and that will create new problems. I truly feel that several changes need to be made to the Derby and the TC series in order to keep it ahead of the times. Trying to keep old traditions in a new era just won't work. You've got to adapt to the era and change accordingly, move forward or die in your place.

Where is the El Cortez, I have never even heard of that place...

what would you do to the TC series to move it forward and adapt to the new era that wouldn't render it insignificant and detached from history? traditional things shouldn't have to stay ahead of the times or else they're not traditions anymore.

why do you characterize having 3-5 TC winners in a decade as "luck running out". do you really feel that the big problem in racing is not enough triple crown winners?

Fremont, a block off LVB. I stayed there once. No hair dryer in the room. Had to go out with wet hair.

First, I think the whole thing about tradition is overrated. Out of the 11 TC winners, only the last three won it under the conditions they run it under today. It's been changed quite a few times in the past. They've had some years where it was one-week between the Derby and Preakness. Some years where there were four-weeks between the Preakness and Belmont. A lot of the winners won it under different circumstances so when people try to lump them all together, I don't feel that's accurate. I don't think making changes has to make it insignificant. Basketball used to have eight teams, now they have 30, 16 teams make the playoffs, all series are seven games, etc. Football used to have a 12-game schedule. Now they play 16-games and are even talking about maybe making it 18 and cutting out some preseason games. Baseball added in a wild-card to the playoff picture and, IMO, that has significantly added to the game, rather than take away from it like many of the traditionalist feared it would. I don't feel like making changes to traditions necessarily mean they have to end them.

I say that I think the luck would run out if there was a run on TC winners because I think it would lose some of it's appeal. I feel that part of the lure and what makes it special is because it's so rare and especially because there has been such a long spell since the last one. If there were to be several winners over the next 10 years, I think it could start to take on the feel of being commonplace and lose some of it's luster as a truly special happening. I think that would hurt the game. If Silver Charm and Real Quiet had won it in 1997 and 1998, I don't think 100k would have been out to see Charismatic try it in 1999 because that lure of seeing something that hadn't happened in 21 years wouldn't have been there anymore. I feel that having a few come along in a short period of time would force the powers that be to examine why this is happening and would lead to them trying to do things that might make it harder to win instead of easier.