Dutrow's Confidence in Big Brown
 

I Know.. not another Big Brown thread!! But I thought the quotes from Dutrow in the throughbredtimes.com article were rather interesting. I've never heard a trainer speak this confidently about his horse before the derby. ( I know, it's trainer-speak.. but it's usually more optimistic/positive.)
Here are some of this quotes:



"It’s a horse race and I have the best horse in the race. It’s that simple,” Dutrow said. “We’re going to Kentucky to win; anything less than that is not going to be OK with us. There’s such good karma going around the stable now that I don’t see how he can get beat.”

“I’ve never been in this kind of spot before but I don’t feel any pressure, not as long as my horse is going good,” Dutrow said. “I’m having fun. This is what I was born to do.”


“It’s an honor to be a favorite now and he’ll be the favorite on Derby day—I can guarantee that,” Dutrow said. “We’re a betting stable and we’ll make sure he’s the favorite.”


http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...g-workout.aspx

The "I don't see how we can get beat" line is a bit much, however, everything is else is what you need going into a major event. Look at Tiger Woods, you ask him everyday what his agenda is, and it's winning. Granted, he never says he won't win, but part of his success comes from his ability to use his confidence in himself to help reach the top.

This of course begs the question, what is Dutrow's handicap index?

He knows so much it was bad weather that led to Big Brown even stepping foot on dirt.

Craig,

That is exactly what I mentioned to Pickwick several days ago.

I actually enjoy Dutrow's bravado. Racing can be a game of unparalled characters.....and Dutrow definitely fits the bill. He makes it more fun in this respect. Let him brag away.......it makes a good story.

Dutrow thinks a LOT of horses he runs can't lose. If you like Big brown, and are betting him, you better hope this is one of the occasional times he is right.

Never heard such confidence and speaking in absolutes from a trainer going into the derby BUT could this be Dutrow securing a big paycheck for BB's connections and himself from UPS as a sponsor by selling Big Brown as a modern day Secretariat ? Sorry I am so jaded but his actions seem a bit curious. Then again Big Brown may get to eat from that special oat bucket, the one with such powers that you are so sure he will win you bet 160 K on him...

Did he read the Bobby Frankel script from 2003? Sounds like it to me.

I agree.

I went to see First Saturday in May last night and that is what made that movie and this industry as a whole so interesting. Life would be dull if we were all the same.

I don't know, Sightseek, I saw the same movie you did last night. Where was the Bravada in that? I thought I saw six pretty humble guys going for the ride of their lives.

I meant how different all of the people in the industry are, not that they all have an abundance of bravado.

Gotcha.

I could care less about Dutrow's bravado. It's his history in the sport that make it impossible for me to root for Big Brown. Imagine if he became the face of racing for the next 7 weeks.

Couldn't agree more. The guy has zip class.

I think he and his kind have been the face of racing for a long time. Isn't it about time the world sees them in all their glory? No longer are the Phipps, Whitneys, Mott's and Claiborne's the benchmark. Now it's the cheat juicers, Shieks, and Coolmore.. Like it or not they are all here to stay.

Like it or not, that's kind of what you want in a trainer -- not the person, but the mindset, way of thinking, etc. Perhaps not the public aspect of it, or to that degree, but that mindset is what you want. You don't want a trainer who thinks, trains, etc. defensively. Sure, it cuts both ways, but very often when a trainers starts training defensively, then they start entering defensively. They pick defensive spots, don't tighten the screws so to speak, pick spots not wanting to lose a horse, etc. -- all of that. Yes, it's different with stakes horses, and there's no rule.

Dutrow is a great racetrack character. I didn't know him well before he got rolling, but to some extent, he has always been this way. He's a confident guy, boisterous, and whatever else you want to call it.

I've seen far too many run their business defensively, and from a position of weakness. When that happens, most of the time you are beaten at the draw.

Eric

good lord , i hear this sort of thing every year. the horse has 3 races and hes the best thats ever been. sure i'll put my money on that, as the favorite no less. i'd be looking out for the people that are sandbagging. not the one that beat their chests.(somethings wrong with pyro? he sure didn't look it yesterday)

When Dutrow Jr is truly confident about one of his horses chances in a race he backs it up at the window. He "bets out" on the horse.

You have cheats in all walks of life. Why would horse racing be any different?
You'll never see a horse testify in front of the US House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. The old days of the breeders who breed to race rather than race to breed are over. It's still a good game. If Dutrow Jr. is a cheater he'll get caught eventually once technology on drug detection improves. I know he has been caught for drug violations but I don't recall if they were improvement enhancing drugs or maintenance drugs.

I am not going to open the Pandora's box of "cheaters" and "juice" trainers and that whole thing again -- and I am not making this statement about Dutrow. He's had positive tests, he served days, I think he still has more under appeal, and when the chips fall, they'll fall wherever they fall.

However, I think this is a different, but related, issue. The culprits are the culprits and it is what it is. The industry has always been a step, or many steps, behind the "cheaters" and perhaps it will always be that way. The industry will make progress in it's battle and so will the "cheaters" -- thus, the cat and mouse game will continue.

Be that as it may, what we have seen are the "targets" -- the Dutrow's and the Assmusen's of the industry -- and their stables upgrade and evolve. They are no longer just dealing with exclusively claimers and some allowance horses. They are regulars in the major stakes races around the world and they are showing up in all the big dances. They are starting to get support from major players in the game. That is the evolution of the business.

On the other hand, you have other trainers, who many do not label as "culprits" and "cheaters" -- they too are also evolving. Gary Contessa used to be a meat and potatoes trainer, a real blue collar kind of barn consisting of claimers. Now he's a player in stakes races and is competing on a much higher and broader level -- in stakes, graded stakes, etc. Bruce Levine is another, a top notch trainer who mostly raced NY Breds, claimers, and some stakes here and there. Now he's stepped it up to another level. Guys like this are also getting bigger owners, with more backing and firepower.

As Lee Strassberg (who plays Hyman Roth, the role based upon Meyer Lansky) says to Al Pacino -- "This is the business we chose, this is the business we are in". That's what it is. However, the industry is starting to change that. They are beginning to hold owners accountable, to the extent possible. Delaware went a step to far and had to dial it back a bit. Other states have followed suit or plan to. I believe we will see progress and the game will get better.

Eric

So, your assumption is that he never galloped/worked the horse on the dirt and thus had no idea whether the horse could handle it or not?

Isn't it more about the fact that he entered him in a turf race?

Makes perfect sense without having to read anything into it. The horse is fragile; he hasn't run in months; why not put him on the surface, 1st time back, that he's already won on? Doesn't mean the trainer is clueless.

If he wins impressively on the turf (the field wasn't much on either surface) would it be a HUGE stretch for Dutrow to run him in the Floriday Derby?

More than, say, Motion running Adriano in the FoY off of his impressive turf win?

That might be the fact. However, if the turf race goes, how does that play out? If he wins big, Dutrow has options. I don't know what he would have done, and nobody could predict that. On the other hand, if he loses, well, who knows. Maybe the horse doesn't progress, move forward, hold up, etc. The world is made up of what if's as we all know. It's hypothetical. I don't know if I would call it luck or dumb luck for that matter.

Regardless, while your point is well taken, like him or not, Dutrow is no dummy. If it played out differently, he might not be sitting on the favorite for the Derby, but he is in fact right now.

Eric

Dutrow loves every horse he runs. This is just getting reported because it's the Derby and everything gets reported. He is actually a funny guy who tends to say whatever is on his mind at the time.

Why don't his horses get tired? I mean,people,most of us watch these races 3-6 days a week...His horses don't really get tired like other guys horses...Give him whatever stakes horse you want,and when they go to him they won't get as tired.I'm surprised he is saying this stuff going into this race.He is gunna have the hugest target on him,and it ain't 10 horses.It's like 18-20 horses.If guys really want to do it,then they can get him beat. If he gets an inside post,and has any trouble at all getting out of that gate,then they can seal him in pretty damn good.

DRF reporter David Grening profiles Richard Dutrow Jr in his Sunday DRF article. Ricky has a lot to say. It goes without saying he's feeling pretty good about Big Brown's chances in that horse race they expect to win a week from today.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94024.html

You need luck to win that race.Prado is probably best at positioning horses.Prado is his favorite jock.Because it's a big field ,and he thinks he just needs to stay out of trouble,I think I would have switched to Prado.This isn't the Florida Derby.This race will have horses who can run early with him.This is a tougher assignment for the jock.Prado is smoother,and a more consistent rider.I would have upgraded to my main guy.It may be the only chance he has to win the derby,and why go with a jock who did indeed blow a triple crown by opening up a lil too early on Real Quiet? See,Kent has always been the type to go all in,and hope he can hold on.Prado is just smoother.

I wasn't rooting for or against Big Brown until I read this nonsense.

**** Dutrow in the pants. I hope Big Brown runs up the track. Then that douchebag will understand how difficult it really is to win the Derby.

I'll tell ya something ,Joey.What chance do you think that Black Jack horse has to get 10f? All it would take is that horse getting a lil rank,and wanting to run off.If he sets a fast pace(with Brown laying a close 2nd-3rd-4th,) then it's gunna suck the middle and back of that field past that front.I don't care if he's best.When you got this many horses it ain't all up to you.You still gotta get lucky.This is not like the other 3 races he has had.He has been able to clear 3 times without much fight from anybody.This race is the 1st time all the best 3 year olds have met,and it will have horses who can run front, middle, and back. Can he clear on the far turn? He might,but he may have to go quite a bit quicker this time in the middle.It's different.On paper,he is best.This race has a stand out favorite.He will be targeted. We haven't had such a big favorite in the derby recently.They gunna be trying to get this horse in trouble.He can win it,but they will make it as hard on him as possible.

But Dutrow horses don't get tired. . .

That's why he is the favorite.Still gotta stay out of trouble,and all the others will be trying to get him into trouble.

big brown showed he was best in his three races. i don't know that he's shown he's the best three year old. like someone else said, dutrow sounds like bobby frankel a few years ago with empire maker.
i guess i'm just sick to death of hearing about big brown, with new threads from differing angles (like this one) begun on the board ad nauseum.

You could start a "Stop Big Brown Threads" thread....oh wait...

:p

I think we are all sick to death of hearing about Dutrow, Big Brown, IEAH, and anything else involving that crew. That being said its been a very well managed advertising campaign by Mr Iavarone whos obviously much smarter than most of the dummies who play this game. Hes aquired good horses, albeit top dollar, hes put them in the right hands while DRF, Bloodhorse, TTimes, and any other publication I can think of has pimped them very steady. To play at the level those guys are playing is very difficult, they have done a masterful job marketing.

I want more about Dutrow.

If the DRF article is accurate,
then you just know the guy is
that much more of a character.

I think he would be a very interesting
guy to sit next to and just listen to him
yap. Im the best with horses; and I
can be the best while high, pickled,
or comfortably numb.

Or we could listen to Tagg while around
the campfire. Cold night tonite Barclay...
Yep. Big race next Saturday...
Yep. Oh hell Im not an insider.

At least these guys have some brains
unlike so many other sports personalities.
I just love the interviews with college
basketball players. Hey what are you listening
to lately besides Soldjuh boiy...?
Favorite X-box game?
Are you still skipping that Basket Weaving class?

Look at the reaction from Joey. Good stuff.

"I've never heard a trainer speak this confidently about his horse before the derby."

bud delp and spectacular bid leap to mind.

i'm not suggesting there's a comparison between the horses. but until dutrow's beats "a better horse never looked through a bridle", i'm leaving the pre-derby confidence crown with delp.

The difference is Delp was right. Dutrow isnt

my question is : why is he the favorite? off of one race . the other 2 were turf races(one was taken off), and the florida derby field was a pack of chumps. its the kind of horse people that bet once a year like. not people that take the time to handicap and write on here .

I don't think Prado rides for Dutrow anymore after the St. Liam issue. I could be wrong though.