Definite Derby Throw Outs
 

Not sure this will be any easier but since picking the standout winner in near impossible, who will you definately throw out of your picks and why?

Let the fun begin.

Spyder

Definite tosses:
Recapturetheglory
Anak Nakal
Indian Sun
Z Humor

Likely tosses:
Court Vision
Tale of Ekati
Halo Najib
Bob Black Jack

Big Brown
Recapturetheglory
Z Humor
Monba
Cool Coal Man
Cowboy Cal
Big Truck
Halo Najib IF he gets in

only thing I usually throw out in the derby is my money.

If Churchill would allow me to place an Exacta on the 19th and 20th finishers, I would box Z Humor with Recapturetheglory.

Other than that, I think I'll have to wait for the draw and final field before really being confident in tossing anyone else.

you don't like Proud Spell at all if she runs in the Derby, I know she is only 15%, but if she did run, I would definetely be using her.

What post would help you to decide to bet a horse like Anak Nakal?

:D :D

I know Anak's races have been pretty questionable this year, but if this has been the main goal, he wouldn't have had to get any earnings to get here. I really think you might see a different horse on Derby Day with him, plus he will get the pace he needs, and there aren't many that are bred like he is to go this distance.

I know, I know, he hasn't done anything, but Zito would not be going if he didn't have confidence, and I just think he has a opportunity to hit the top 4

This is like being in a room with 2 pretty chicks and 15 fat ones and eliminating each of the fat ones, one by one, rather than just focusing on the 2 babes.

Well, I'm never one to run someone out of town when they're backing a longshot. Your reasoning is alright. And I've said it a hundred times... I suppose this year's Derby is so crazy it's really "anything goes."

I'm kind of in the same boat here. I'm no fan of Anak Nakal, but I can't say without question that I might not use him on a couple of tickets at the very bottom of a tri or super.

I doubt she can win, I agree with that, but I think she would have a better chance then most of hitting the board.....

can anyone please tell me if there will be 10 cent supers in the derby--thanks
and for throw outs i usually start by throwing out all california horses and poly specialists then go from there. gotta start somewhere

Will Hank Goldberg be giving his pick out far enough in advance that I can make it an autotoss?

yes to ten cent supers

Really? I heard no. Only ontrack or online as well?

I thought they announced this year that they would, and there were people on here bitching about it.....

Both, from my understanding...

that is if tracknet/horsemen group actually come to an agreement, and there is offtrack betting

I need clarification, because for my broke ass, this will be the difference between whether I play the tri or the super.

I agree... I think both fillies would have a good shot to run in the money. I don't know that they can win if BB or Pyro "fire", but I would have a hard time leaving them off my tickets.

Do not like Eight Belles at all, matter of fact, I don't like her in the Oaks either

Any filly that decides to run...

Definite tosses no matter what:

Anak Nakal
Behindatthebar
Big Truck
Bob Blackjack
Court Vision
Cowboy Cal
Recapturetheglory
Visionaire
Z Humor

and possibly Adriano

Only for the bottom of TRIs:

Eight Belles
Gayego
Monba
Tale of Ekati

Didn't we just have this thread last week?

I think you're making a BIG mistake by tossing Cool Coal Man, Scav. Don't say I didn't warn you. . .

I think he tripped out in his two races at Gulfstream this year....I don't have the races in front of me but I just think that while he is a good horse, he has gotten the benefit of decent trips. I could be wrong about this though.

Obviously the list I posted is a tenative list, who knows what I will do come Derby Day...Tilt city could be happening and I go up the window and say "Give me $1000 to win on Anak Nakal"

I take it this is going to be used against me for a very long time

What do you guys see in him? His win in the FOY was a perfect set up. Ground saving trip on a track that favors inside posts and stalked the slowest of fractions. Otherwise he hasn't done anything.

My only angle is this, maybe Zito hasn't tighten the screws. He has been making moves and flattening out.

I mean, listen, he got a great trip in his win at Churchill, but I just don't think people can toss him given his pedigree, his win at Churchill, expected trip, and the assumption that Zito has taken his time with him given the fact that he had the earnings to do so

I won't deny that Cool Coal Man got pretty nice set-ups in his two wins this year, but I think he's a horse who makes his own trip. He's got nice stalking speed and I like that he'll be forwardly placed in the derby but not TOO close to a pace that COULD be fast or may turn out to be more moderate than some of us expect. I also thought that he made a VERY nice move in the FoY. He's got a win at CD where he beat Recapturetheglory pretty easily, he's 2-for-2 at 9F on dirt and has the pedigree to run all day. His 98 BSF stacks up pretty well with this group and he'll be a pretty big price. Sold yet?

I can think of about 20 horses that I feel fairly comfortable in saying they have no shot to win.

I have taken off work every Derby day for the past 5 years...not this year. Zero interest in any of this group. Just a bunch of slow horses.

;)

they might be slow but that is all we have for derby. and one horse will win
if slow are not.