Who will be the "wise guy" horse 5/3???
 

The more i keep hearing about him and with the jockey talking about Barbaro i get the feeling its gonna be Adriano. It just seems here lately that this horse is getting a lot of "buzz" and im thinking this is gonna lower his odds pretty good for KD.I have no real idea who im actually gonna bet in the big race but for some odd reason im actualy thinking about adriano, am i getting sucked into the hype machine??

Here's a quote by Prado's agent and I do not detect much confidence by statement.

Bob Frieze, Prado's agent, said it was "a tough decision."

"We went back and forth, back and forth," Frieze said from Keeneland, where Prado is currently riding. "We won on Adriano in the Lane's End before we rode the other two. We felt obligated toward Graham. We had told Graham to let Edgar work the horse first, then we'd make a decision."

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24161402/

Why would he not choose Adriano?

Monba ran once over the track - got a great stalking trip - and was life and death to beat a nothing field.

Tale of Ekati has run three straight moderate figures - and he doesn't project to improve at all stretching out. On top of that, I guess Tagg complained about his Wood ride.

Instead of riding a known commodity who had no realistic shot of winning - wouldn't you prefer an unknown quantity who's ceiling might or might not be a whole lot higher?

A. P. Indy gets better dirt horses than turf horses - Mr. Prospector gets better dirt horses than turf horses - the 2nd dam is a half to Bet Twice who beat out Alysheba in the old Chrysler Triple Crown Series point standings. Even though he's always been handled like a turf horse - and even though he's been effective on turf and synthetic - no one can rationally say that one roughly run race where he was marooned out in the 12 hole at GP is enough to prove he stinks on dirt.

Adriano might have the worst chance percentage wise at a top 8 finish of the three - but he has the best chance percentage wise of winning the race of those three horses.

So do you think he has any shot, Drugs?

I think Monba and Tale of the Ekati have a much better shot at splitting the field than Adriano.

Adriano is one of the toughest reads, probably even the single toughest read for me in the race - if he runs 16th I wouldn't be shocked..and if he's in the exacta I wouldn't be totally shocked.

Can he win? I only say it's not impossible because I'm not entirely convinced I know where his ceiling is..and this is unquestionably a low rated Derby field.

Ya I hear you. . . Right now I have him as an "X" but he's probably the one I fear the most out of the ones I plan on tossing.

Court Vision

Gayego.

Denis of Cork.

The trainer galloped...

agree!!

-bt-

Obviously, Byk and White (and others in their cabal) are conspiring to make Smooth Air the wise guy horse.

I think its Gayego. His Arkansas race proved to a lot of people he isnt just a sprinter. Add in Mike Smith, a guy who rode the last big Derby surprise, if you will (Giacomo). His trainer is a fun guy to root for, a la Farda Amiga, not one of those arrogant asses we have become so accustomed to seeing on "the Big Stage."

Its really hard to find many knocks on him. The only one was he was only a polytrack (cushion) horse, but thats been debunked with his Ark win.

He can definetely win this race but probably wont be the overlay his backers wanted. Thinking he will go off between 10/1 and 15/1.

Z Fortune. Everyone will watch that and see he ran a nice figure, looks to be improving, and is better suited for the 10f than Gayego with his style and the fact he had a wide trip at Arkansas.

Court Vision and DOC's works appear to have directed some attention their way.

Dennis of Cork will be a bit off the trip in the Illinois Derby and if this workout gets pub like it did here.

I can't see him going off less than 40-1. Smooth Air seems like the wise guy horse to me. Probably should be 30-1 or more but will wind up going off at 12-1 to 15-1.

Sheet players love him, he'll be a lot less than 40-1. Agree on Smooth Air's odds, however I think he's legit and one of the few truly talented horses in this field and a must include. Pedigree scares me away a bit but at least he's got a little stamina on the bottom.

I think Smooth Air is the wiseguy horse, he or Adriano.

I'm very torn on Adriano as well. There is a ton to like. He has breeding which should/could easily excel on dirt, so labeling him a synthetic maven just yet seems premature.

Let's face it - it's anyones race this year. Well, almost anyone.

after Giacomo very few horses who have a graded win on their resume go off at 40/1.......I can see 15-1 to 20/1

I cant see Smooth Air taking the kind of money needed to get him to 12/1.
Somebody had to run 2nd to Big Brown that day. Sure he can win, but I dont think a plodding 2nd in behind Big Brown is the kind of race that will make people run to the ATM machine over.

I see horses like Gayego and Z Fortune attracting more attention. Maybe even the slow Tale of Ekati. Those are 3 horses who I see more likely to land in the 12/1 - 15/1 range.

By my count there are exactly zero horses in the field without a graded stakes win. You think everyone will go off at less than 40/1? That has to be close to impossible.

I'd love to get 40-1on DofC, but I'm thinking more around 25-1.

Yeah but those horses you can make the argument that they should be in the 12/1 to 15/1 range. In Smooth Air's case he really shouldn't be there. Yet my feeling is he will be which will mean he was the wise guy horse.

It is virtually impossible in a 20 horse field with 2 horses you know will be below 6/1.
I have a gut feeling there will be 1-2 forgotten horses with qualified figures, and one of them will win it and pay $100.

There is no way Denis will go off at 40/1 or higher.

The listeners of ATR will bet him down to 20/1 or less. That tearjerker story about Carroll taking his kid to the derby museum after the Illinois debacle will get the emotional gamblers to bet heavy so they can have that delusional hope they'll get to see the kid cry in the winners circle.

It's enough to make you wanna throw up.

Tomcito was 3/1 because he was running against billygoats on a surface that confuses the majority of bettors. Somebody had to be the favorite in that mule run. Did Tomcito finish the race in daylight or did they need to throw the lights on for him? :D

It may not have been the best field, but there were surely better options to make the favorite than Tomcito.

The only horse for which TheGreek felt compelled to lower its odds significantly in the last week is Adriano. One week ago it was 35.5 to 1. Now Adriano is 20.5 to 1 at TheGreek. Every other horse is very close to the odds it was a week ago.

Odds on Big Brown have risen slightly from 3.05-1 to 3.25-1. Odds on Pyro and Col. John have dropped slightly.

--Dunbar

I agree 100%. Z Fortune looks like a "wise guy" horse to me. He was visually respectable through the final three furlongs in Arkansas, and his sire had a couple of wins in big 10f races. People will like that.

For me, he is a toss. He just ran by a couple of unimpressive 30/1 shots (Tres Borrachos and Isabull) at Oaklawn, and that doesn't impress me much. Also, despite Siphon's wins in two 10f G1s, his distance pedigree is actually pretty poor on both sides. I don't see him moving forward with the extra distance, and the loss of War Pass sure didn't help him at all.

I dont agree that Z Fortune is any better suited to the longer distance than Gayego. He wasnt getting to Gayego and if this were true it would have been a heck of a lot closer at the end. That said, I still like Z Fortune's chances a bit but not because of the added distance.

I bowl, nice Norm Duke avatar!:D

i say it will be recaoturetheglory nobody talking about him.

like to see the connections get this one after risen star
came up short.

Gayego !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Getting better all the time.

Place your bets and when nobody is looking throw some money on some long shots.