Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?
 

So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.

Where's your proof of that? Nakatani rode Colonel John last time and has ridden him in four of six starts. That doesn't sound like Gomez ditching him to me..

The horse is a winner with a versatile running style and awesome distance pedigree. As for his figures, if you take all synthetic numbers at face value, then I don't know what to tell you, and it isn't like 95 is far off what it'll take to win here. To me, the only one that has run a two-turn race significantly faster at three is Big Brown, because I'm not buying that AR Derby fig.

Do I think he offers value? Hell no. But if you watch the horse run, look at his pedigree and don't think it screams "Derby horse", then I think you're mistaken. I wouldn't bet him to win, but he's definitely one of the more likely winners.

I don't know if Gomez could get the mount back now if he wanted to but he undoubtedly chose to ride Court Vision in the Wood over Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby:

Another person who was thrilled when he heard about the work was Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson, who stands by last month’s decision to ride Court Vision instead of Colonel John.

“With Colonel John, you’re dealing with a horse coming off synthetic surfaces and who had won the Sham Stakes by a half-length,” Anderson said. "With Court Vision, you’re dealing with Billy Mott and going to Aqueduct where he had already won a stakes, and then going to Churchill Downs where he had already won a stakes. How could I take off him? And when you’re going a mile and a quarter for the first time, you can’t count speed figures.

couple reasons.

- process of elimination, except for Big Brown who really is fast enough?
- Throw out beyers on synthetic as they are not meaningful.
- He can plod along and run down the wilting frontrunners ( ala Giacomo )
- Cali horses are running elsewhere and winning this year
- Tiznow, true, dominant sire on synthetic surfaces, but didnt he win a good race or two on dirt?
- and last but not least: he should have no problems with the distance

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

Yeah, and Ron Anderson's never made a similar mistake before (Hard Spun, Rags to Riches)..

Not saying it wasn't a mistake. I think Court Vision might quite possibly be the slowest Derby horse of all time but when we are talking the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby I do think it needs to be factored in. I'm just seeing underwhelming evidence as to why I should play this horse and tons of reason to play against him.

I understand playing against him on top at 9/2 or so, and he's certainly not my value pick, but I can't really see him running out of the money.

i thought gomez only rode him when he did because nak was injured? i doubt it was a permanent change, or one that gomez could turn into a permanent jockey switch.
as for colonel john, he could make the switch-then again, he may not. it's possible he will get good odds that would make him worth a look as there could be doubts.
but, judging by the results at oaklawn, synthetic horses can make a successful transition to dirt. now, for those going from dirt to synthetic, that's another story. of course for every example you could show that horse was able to transition, no doubt you can find some that can't. but that's been a part of horse racing for years, with horses trying dirt to turf and vice versa.
i'd give col john a lot longer look than many of the other horses people have been mentioning.

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

I said in my initial post that seeing how he works might change things. As of now though I don't understand how everyone can be acting like he's a must play horse. I think he needs to prove he belongs on dirt before he is worthy of consideration on any tickets.

Yeah, that pretty much sums up my thoughts.

Is there a must play horse in this Derby? If so, I'm seriously missing something.

Yes, Pyro.

My bad. After DrugSy's Pyro tout, is there a must play horse in this particular Derby?

It's Mr. DrugSy to you.

Sorry, Mr. DrugSy, won't make that mistake again.

Tiznow may look like a Synthetic sire because all of those Cal-breds at Delmar, Hollywood, and Santa Anita. Tiznow himself won the Breeders Cup classic dirt race at Churchill downs covering 10f.

Slew's Tizzy, Bear Now, Well Armed, Tough Tiz's Sis, Colonel John, .... all very good synthetic horses - and that's just off the top of my head.

I just can't buy the speed figures out at Santa Anita right now, so I use that in my mind to justify my feelings on Colonel John. I think he's probably one of the more likely entrants in this year's Derby to run his race, and the hrose does always seem to fire. He does have the two prep angle that has brought down many a fine animal before, for whatever that is worth.

Because he's a good horse. Because he's consistent. Because he doesn't look like the distance will be a problem. Because he's a good horse. The whole thing about Tiznow's being better on the synthetics is silly to me. If you take a horse and take 80% of his offspring and run them on the grass, it's going to look like he's a grass sire. Opportunity has a lot to do with what categories sires are pigeonholed into. Colonel John's record is the most consistent of any Derby entrant not named Big Brown. He's a good horse. IMO, to say that you wouldn't play him to win because you don't know how he'll transition to regular dirt is ok. To say you wouldn't play him at all, in this type of field, I don't get that at all.

And who finished 2nd to the Colonel in the SA ? You can't dismiss him either because he's working well with blinkers that are striaghtening him out, according to his trainer. So if you like the Colonel, what's not to like about BBJ ? :) Ahh, I'm chillin till derby week with my guy.

If that were only remotely close to true. Tiznow has had 84 horses race this year and produced 27 winners (32%). On synthetics he has 11 winners from 31 runners (35%). It is virtually impossible to have a higher percentage on synthetics since horses that lose once on synthetic and win five times on dirt would count against you in the synthetic category. In fact, I'm pretty sure you won't find another horse with a higher synthetic winning percentage than overall win percentage besides Tiznow. 67% of his earnings also come from the synthetics.

would seem to be gigantic question mark, no?

Silliness is looking at someone else's figures and assuming they're comprehensive. Try to formulate an opinion of a horse without thinking in terms of Beyers. Bet you can't.

This is very typical in the presently dominating IMPLANT mode of handicapping.

-much tougher pace scenario likely in 2 weeks
-doesn't look like a natural for 10f
-better options available if you think someone is going to win wire-to-wire.

Even more troublesome than that to me....

CJ's dam was a better horse on the turf.

definetly a question mark. not sure i'd call it gigantic.

I think BBJ will be off the lead until the top of the stretch, then on the lead. a SA box looks good :D ...depending on conditions...ahhh, chillin with my cali boys until the big week

Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory will be battling down the stretch. . . For 19th. . .

hahahaha...ya never know...
here's the most recent Col John clip on youtube for your viewing pleasure

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuuJibTFXI

and BBJ setting the world record @ 6F and gallopin out strong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qe4_9GGpNP8

Fat Man 10,000% correct.

Imagine what the resume of the guy who makes Beyer or Bris, etc,... figs for your track looks like. Chances are he ain't matriculated from MIT.

They don't need to be.

I think a computer makes the BRIS figs...and it's not like people don't question a lot of figures that aren't cut and dry and straight forward.

It's rarely wise to just neglect how fast a horse has been running.

Just off the top of my head...

Tiz Wonderful - 2 time graded stakes winner at Churchill where Tiznow won the Classic.
Folklore - Champion 2yo filly (all on dirt). BC Juvy Fils and Matron won at Belmont, where her daddy won the Classic.

Tiznow clearly struggles to get top class dirt horses, especially at places where he succeeded.

Could it not be possible that Tiznow is potentially a pretty versatile sire whose runners are apt on a variety of different surfaces? I don't think that's entirely implausible.

The ability to handle the surface makes all the other questions moot. If he does not handle dirt, he cant win regardless of everything else.

agreed. i don't know how to quantify the likelyhood he doesn't handle the surface as anything other than a question mark until he ships in.

you stated it was a gigantic question mark. i took that to mean you don't expect him to handle the surface. your opinion is probably better informed than mine but for my part i'm waiting until i see what he does at the track.

i'm in no way endorsing the horse. i just think labelling "silly" the expectation he could run competetivly was itself silly.

The whole synthetic/dirt question is THE story of this Derby.

Especially since Pyro's connections just stated that if Pyro wins the Derby, he will not go to the BC Classic because it will be on synthetic(someone remind me of the site).

Colonel John is a very conservative safe pick, I believe, without alot of negatives(or positives, for that matter) who might be 6-1. It's a pick for unimaginative handicappers(lol)