4/19-20 (KEE): Lexington; Ben Ali
 

Keeneland 9 -- Coolmore Lexington S. - Gr. II

3yo, $325,000, One And One Sixteenth Miles

1 Atoned (FL) 3 Colt 117 Edgar S. Prado
2 Salute the Sarge (KY) 3 Colt 117 Michael C. Baze
3 Samba Rooster (FL) 3 Colt 117 Garrett K. Gomez
4 St. Joe (FL) 3 Colt 117 Miguel Mena
5 Racecar Rhapsody (KY) 3 Colt 117 Robby Albarado
6 Felon (KY) 3 Colt 117 Julien R. Leparoux
7 Behindatthebar (KY) 3 Colt 117 David Romero Flores
8 Tomcito (KY) 3 Colt 123 Jorge F. Chavez
9 Big Glen (KY) 3 Colt 119 Rene R. Douglas
10 Riley Tucker (KY) 3 Colt 117 John R. Velazquez
11 Red Sandy (FL) 3 Colt 117 Jamie Theriot



8th (4:40) Ben Ali S. (G3)

1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Sterwins Bridgmohan S X 117 LA
2 Go Between Gomez G K 123 LA
3 Crossword Albarado R J 117 LA
4 Mayan King Desormeaux K J 117 LA
5 Sir Whimsey Prado E S 121 LA
6 It's a Bird Velazquez J R 117 LA
7 Leonnatus Anteas Jones J 117 L

Atoned and my value horse is Big Glen

I think Big Glen, Samba Rooster, and Riley Tucker all have legit chances of winning this race.

Damn! It's so obvious now, Riley Tucker is the value, my bet to win

Prima facie pick: Samba Rooster

Riley Tucker will be NO WHERE NEAR that price at post time, and with his earnings, I think he has a shot at the Derby also, I think he got 2nd in the Arl Wash Futurity, plus his 2nd in the translyvania recently. I can't get an exacta amount, but I think the Wash Futurity is 150k purse, and that one was 150k purse, so a win by him puts him in the picture also....

throw out all decent dirt horses and use the turf form ......or turf pedigree. keenland is really BAD.

JR Velazquez is on Riley instead of Pletcher's 2 horses-blinkers back on for Mott

The last train to churchill?
 

He has $128,600 total earnings.

He won a MSW50k = $30,000
2nd in a 40250N1X = $8,050
Every other race was Graded for him.

Which leaves = $90,550 as Graded Earnings.

This race is worth $325k which gives $195,000 to the winner.

That would put him at $285,550 which puts him at 20th on the current list, but there are horses above 20 that are not going, so I'd say a win and he's in.

Everyone may be in for a big shocker in this race. Im not talking about the pinky thumb either.

Racecar Rapsody

big glen

If Samba doesn't take to the surface then expect St. Joe to be all alone. And that's what I'm betting on. Absolutely no speed in the race.

Atoned. Of course. Oh, and Tomcito.

-Sparky

you are a brave man in taking any speed horse to wire a race like this at keeneland.

my picks on the record from my blog

http://thehlife.blogspot.com/

Huh? Samba Rooster will be sent regardless of how he takes to the surface, and Salute the Sarge and Riley Tucker will be sent from their posts too. Should be plenty of speed.

Salute the Sarge? Uh no. Riley Tucker will sit off the lead. That leaves Samba Rooster and St. Joe. And we all know how Gomez hates going to the lead. He'll probably try and sit Samba off the pace as well.

The odds I'll get are worth it in a race full of plodders.

Salute the Sarge couldn't stay far enough off the lead to not die in the BC Juvenile, he's coming out of a six-furlong race and he's gotta gun to avoid being compromised by the two speeds to his outside. Why wouldn't he be close to the pace? Last time Riley Tucker was in blinkers, he didn't sit off the lead, and he hasn't really done it since except for in the Southwest. And I don't care if Gomez hates going to the lead, he's on a one-dimensional speed horse, what else is he going to do? Pretty sure the fractions will be fast.

I've liked St Joe since his maiden win- but I don't think he can get this distance. Think he's better suited at 6-7f, would have been a force in the Derby Trial next Saturday.

Salute the Sarge won't be within 3 lengths of St. Joe at the half. He's too slow. I believe his best races are behind him and he's an auto-toss in this one.

Riley Tucker? He's too slow as well. Plus you've got John R. in the saddle. Good luck with that one. If Prado couldn't get him in the winners circle in that horrendous Transylvania, then Jesus Christ wouldn't be able to in this race.

The only horse that could challenge is Samba Rooster. But Gomez nuts up on speed horses AND he'll be bet down. Pass.

I'm looking for value in a race full of pigs. St. Joe will be 12-1 or higher.

That's one of the big questions is distance limitations. What I'm most concerned about is if Mena can get him to relax on the lead. If he can relax and handle a little pressure, then he'll wire this field.

Derby Trial? Looks like a poly specialist to me.

I'm not saying any of those horses are winners, and I'm not faulting you for looking for value. It's a wide open race. Personally I hate all four of the horses you mentioned. I just think the fractions are going to be really quick.

Didn't you watch the Bluegrass? The front-runner all the way round nearly won, and the winner and third were in the first flight throughout. No deep closers need apply.

I like Big Glen a little bit, and (a horse I don't think anybody has mentioned) Behindatthebar.
All of Behindatthebar's synthetic starts have been decent, and while he doesn't really seem to be improving that much, his last race - also 8.5 on the syn - was good enough for me to consider him. With the four horses directly inside of him either gunning for the lead or falling way back, I think he stands to get a decent stalker's trip into what I think will be about an average pace, and he might be around at the end. If the price is reasonable I might take a shot with him.

Tomcito's recent lights-out work over this track is somewhat interesting....but then again, he did the same thing over the Gulfstream surface shortly before the Florida Derby.

Behindatthebar loves the polytrack. Put a line through his El camino cause it was on dirt. His two wins on Poly were won easily at the jocks were in-hand in both races.

Felon is coming off a maiden win but he romped in that. Will relish the distance and Poly. Maker is at winning at 32% so far and his last blowout workout was probably indication for Maker to enter him today.

Taking a shot here
The Bet:

$20 WPS on Behindatthebar

I will also use both horses in my pick 3s.

Samba Rooster is a complete unknown on Poly- thus I like St. Joe in here at a price, the distance and the formerly mentioned horse will be his obstacles as both like to run on the pace. Alot of these have had their chances and they don't really excite me.

I'm also interested in how Salute the Sarge will race, he should improve 2nd time off the layoff.

Yep.

No speed, eh?

Before you go apeshit, I'm just breaking balls.

SAMBA ROOSTER $17.00 $9.20 (Second)
TOMCITO
RILEY TUCKER $6.80 (Third)
And, in this order.:)[/quote]

Congrtas
I had Riley Tucker who was just too slow

Interesting race, first I thought my 9-10 exacta and win bet was looking great only to see that deflate.

Its hard to take slow pletcher horses seriously, he does not develop horses a la nafzger or sheriffs but if they are good they come out firing, yet this horse looks decent.

And Samba Rooster ran so good its almost hard to take the result at face value.

Thanks,

I was excited last night when I saw him at 12-1 M/L. LOL!
I knew the odds would come to reality by post time.

Not a bad win for me nonetheless.

and there is a sucker horse in every race and that is Tomcito in the Lexington.......God which I could have booked every dollar on this horse.

i was shocked at how much play that one took.

I haven't watched the replay yet but from the chart it looks like Gomez couldn't get Samba to relax. Crazy fractions and had an easy lead. Horse could've won with a 23 and 46. 45 is insane on that surface.

CP, it looks like his instructions if you ask me. Baffert is addicted to speed, and the track was playing to speed.

The 45 comment is exactly what I thought when I saw the fractions.....Ran real well to hold that long with those fractions....

Samba Rooster is a head case, on the ESPN telecast Jeannine Edwards said she talked to Gomez and he was told the horse was plain mean and you couldn't use a whip, and that the horse had to think he was running off with you or he plain wouldn't run, he couldn't take hold of him at all, so considering he had no whip, the horse was a runaway, and he was going 2 turns for the first time on a new surface it's hard to not be impressed with that effort!

Gomez
 

Was tugging and fighting this nut all the way down the backstretch.

this horse makes 2-3 y/o corinthian look sane.