I know it's early, but who you tossing?
 

Gayego is a sure toss for me.


what about for you guys?

all of Haskins derby dozen :p

Court Vision

Too early. I tossed Bluegrass Cat based on the dud he ran in his last prep. But when he showed up at CD, he looked and acted like a million dollars during his last few works. If I recall correctly, the Barbaro/BC exacta (which I didn't play, even though all my tickets had Barbaro on top), payed more than $500.

See thread below titled "Official Derby Top 5" for my tosses.

add another 0 to that exacta and you have a clue how i think the race may end up.

was just shy of $600 for $2... i had it 10 times (no joke) and didn't have to pay taxes. That oaks/derby was the best two days i've ever had.

Recapturetheglory immediately comes to mind...

Any horse with a "Z" in the beggining of his name.
Followed by Gayego, Bob Black Jack, War Pass and Big Truck.

Without mentioning all of the obvious ones that everyone would put in their bottom 10, looking at only those that might be in the 12-1 or under range, I'd go with Pyro. I've never liked him and he's not done anything to make me like him this year. I feel that he's regressed from his 2yo form and his last race was not the way one would want to be going into the Derby. He's had three races but I don't think he's raced three times. I feel like he's going to come up short on Derby Day. I do give him credit as a good horse, better than I believed he was and I now believe that come the second half of the year, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with. But I don't like him here and especially not at price relative to chances.

whoever Point Given is betting

All the odd numbers

Cool Coal Man. Not a fan.

A good handicapping friend of mine made the point to me today that at least Street Sense found a way to be competitive in the Blue Grass last year, unlike the trio of erstwhile Derby contenders who clunked their way home the other day. Plus, horses like Zanjero and even Teufelsberger who both ran well that day ended up having pretty good overall 3YO years while horses like Great Hunter who had high hopes but stunk in last year's Blue Grass actually ended up being a bum anyway.

He might have a point.

War Pass is my toss but I think he will probably have the most influence on who does win I wouldnt leave him out of the bottom of ex,tris or suppers.

Toss to win, or toss to hit the board and fill the trifecta? I only have a few under consideration for top honors, while at least half the field has some reasonable shot of hitting the trifecta.

Why the lack of respect for Gayego? I notice he didn't make kasept's top 10 either.

I liked his Ark Derby quite a bit. He showed he could run on dirt and he showed he did not need the lead. He finished strong enough in his 2nd try at a route to make me think he's got a good shot at stretching it to 10 furlongs. I seem to be in a minority, though.

--Dunbar

Cowboy Cal, surface issues, plus he is another horse that I think will be cooked being near a very fast pace.

I'm not sure if Gayego is going to make it 10 furlongs, but my $10 on him at 112/1 will have me rooting the heck out of him.

Gayego is one that a lot of people seem to want to toss. I imagine because they think he will either be making the pace or sitting too close to it, but with 20 horses in the field, I expect a lot of horses will be taken out of their game plan. Gayego seems like one that could be a closer, if he had to be. I think he was one before his last 2 races and if you believe his beyer for his last race, then it seems like he might have more speed than all but two or three horses in the race and who knows how that 2 or 3 will fare? At this point, it seems foolish to me to leave him completely off my tickets. I admit though, I am prone to envisioning scenarios that usually don't happen and this is probably one of them.

I'd like Gayego a lot more if Gilded Time wasn't his sire, making the 10F a real dicey proposition.

TOSS in my opinion this means wont be using at all.... exotics, pick 3-4 anything!!!
here are my tosses.....gayego/big brown/pyro/big truck/recapture

5 tosses.... i dont give any of them much of a shot

Big Brown's a toss for me, especially from an inside or middle post, especially if War Pass draws outside him. You will not ever see a horse get a softer trip from the 12 post than BB did in the Florida Derby. While he broke with the leaders, he is not a gate buster but rather a "take a stride then send" type. From a relative inside post, he'll have to work for his trip, something he hasn't done.

I also think a likely to be tightened up Churchill track works against him and his foot issues. And to a lesser but still important extent, I'm not nuts about his modest number of lifetime starts.

At what is going to be 2/1 - 5/2, he's a toss for me.

totally agree. he is the easiest toss for me.... i think hes easily 2-1, not higher, way way overbet

im starting to like our new friendship

anyone who looked abnormally good on poly

I'm tossing anyone that does not have some good impressive works over the CD track. The last few years that's been one of the most important ingrediants. You can forget everything and those that work well, look impressive are going to be on my tickets. These are young developing horses and believe some will rise and some will fall, especially from the mediocor group.

Spyder

Which might be a good thing when it comes to picking the Derby.

To toss him from all your exotics because he's going to be overbet makes no sense. If you don't play him to win, that's fine.
But if you seriously toss both Pyro and Big Brown from all your trifectas and superfectas (assuming you play those wagers), I think your likelihood of cashing a ticket is being seriously diminished.

Should Pletcher decide to run Cowboy Cal, then it will be a toss. Why?
He's a turf/poly horse.

War Pass....He'll be out of fuel in the last 1/8.

Conversely, Big Brown should still have plenty of "fuel." Ahem.

The midget on Mill St.

I'll take that as a compliment.

I may have missed your contribution. Who is your horse?

he is a cowboy cal fan, me and him roll that way

best friends? :confused:

BFF!

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