Eight Belles to the Derby?
 

If you take the last four Beyers of every horse in the field there is no one that can beat her. I know, it is tainted cause Big Brown only has three starts but still, if she were male and had those Beyers wouldn't she be the second choice? Why the hell not run her? The Oaks is a joke anyways, the more prestigious 3yo filly races are this summer in NY.

Well... I don't think the Oaks is a joke, I'd give just about anything to win it, but I definitely think both her and Proud Spell should go to the Derby. Why not take a shot!!

agree they both should run in the derby, they would both be legit

It's not a joke, it has just been overhyped as if it is the equivalent of the Derby when plain and simple, it just isn't even in the same ballpark. The best 3yo filly racing is in the summer in NY, not in the Oaks.

Depends on what you mean by "hype". Experience wise... it's my absolute favorite day to attend the races. From a perspective of what race I'd like to win, I'd take the Oaks over every filly & mare race outside of the BC Distaff and the Alabama. It isn't the Derby but NOTHING is the Derby, you know that.

Eight Belles, Proud Spell, and Pure Clan are all among the twenty best 3yo's this year.

Aren't the fillies that contest the Kentucky Oaks typically the same one's that run in the Mother Goose, CCA Oaks, and Alabama?

There are a bunch of veteran NY based trainers that couldn't care less about the Oaks who always have a few contenders once the summer months come along. They usually meet the quality horses from the Oaks once the riffraff have been sorted out.

"Porter said he still has to review the competition for the Derby as it stands after April 12, but that a long-term plan would have Eight Belles at least entering the Derby, should everything fall into place."

So they're going to enter her in both and then scratch out of one? That's really fair to other horses that will get shut out because there's no AE list for the derby or oaks. . . Porter's a d#$%& bag. . .

i'd imagine he'll enter and then wait to see what post they get. he's got the right to do so, and the money won to allow it.

you really think that's fair to keep another horse out of a race like the derby or oaks?

I'm not sure he can even do that. You may have to choose one or the other at entry time. Otherwise everyone with a contending horse in the Derby would of course enter their Oaks filly as well to cut down on the field size.

if someone gets knocked out, they should just cry me a river. everyone knows the rules, his filly has the money won, while others don't. i'm sure if he enters her when it's time, it's with every intention of running her there. if she ends up in the oaks, so be it. so it'll keep out a horse like denis of cork...so what. he should have run in the rebel and another horse would be on the bubble instead. if people don't like the rules on the AE deal, they should take it up with churchill downs, rather than get pissed off at rick porter if his filly ends up in the oaks.

no shot
 

Enough about Beyer Speed Figures, Eight Belles has no shot to win the Derby, none....Rags to Riches was a genetic freak last year and if people think she will go into this group and run with Big Brown, War Pass and Gayego up front and hold off the closers. I hope she does run she will take a lot of money after Rags winning last year in the Belmont. There is more to the Kentucky Derby than speed figures.

Umm. . . no. . . not if she's entered in both.

Can I interest you in an Eight Belles/Eight Belles Oaks/Derby double?

Not saying she's going to win but considering how her figures stack up against this crop they have every right to enter her.

Hmmm, guaranteed to get my money back, sounds better than most wagers I make.

Post time favorite in the case of a scratch. . . So I hope you're a Brown Fan

Such as who?

Aside from Sky Beauty and Yanks Music (a decade ago), you can pretty much bank on the Oaks influencing the Mother Goose trifecta going on about 20 years now.

i agree, and have no idea what rags to riches has to do with eight belles. also she doesn't need the lead, as she showed in her last. i'd like to see her, and felt til just after the fantasy that she might show up. but jones and porter seemed hesitant because her last race was so close. but i guess a few days of thinking about it has changed their minds.

Shug and Jerkens to name a few. Usually have top class 3yo fillies, rarely worry about the Oaks.

Shug?

How bout Dispute, Yell, My Flag, Glitter Woman?

He isn't one to skip the Oaks if he has the right horse. Nearly ran Boca Grande last year, in fact.

If Eight Belles goes Saturday instead of Friday, it is Rick Porter and NO ONE ELSE making the decision. Even the consideration of her in the Derby has Porter's ham-handed fingerprints all over it. If Jones were making the call and was forced to run one of the 2 in the Derby, it would be Proud Spell, who is far better suited for the task.

It isn't a big issue, but I've always thought fillys should have to have graded earnings against males to have them count.

CJ,

That's a great point... I've never heard or seen that brought up.

Thanks...just seems they get a free pass by racing in "restricted" races.

it's true they get a free pass. but we would be deprived the opportunity to see something special if they didn't let this happen. as long as it's only 1 or 2 that get to try it, i don't think it's a big deal either.

I was thinking the same thing. It's not like the colts even have a chance at those earnings.

I agree. If a Jones trainee should be heading to the Derby, it's that one.

Eight Belles would not be facing Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday... that's what the connections for R2R was looking at last year. Not quite the same competition in 2008 as it was in '07... IMO.

interesting point. but they also use two year old earnings, which are restricted races. i don't see a change in the near future.

I am no fan of the connections of EB, but after watching all the preps since the beginning of the year, I think they may be sitting on the best 3 year old in the country. Now I'm a little hesitant in saying for 2 reasons, the first is the fact that she doesn't get out of the gate well. That's a disaster waiting to happen in the Derby. Race could be over two jumps in. The second is I didn't like the last two rides she had with Dominguez. The Honeybee, I just thought he wrapped up on her way too early (I know, nice problem to have) and in the Fantasy, he basically did the same thing and Alina had something left and he had to get after her and then for whatever reason she lugged in real bad at the finish. Steve I think your assessment of RP is right on and he is the one making the call, just as he made the call about Dominguez and not Thompson. I think if Jones had is way,Thompson would still be on this mount. But after all that is said, she is the best 3 year old I've seen this year. (taking Big Brown out of the mix now because of the 3 races)

Yes, but all the horses eligible for the Derby could run in those 2yo races. They all can't run in filly races.

The percentage of fillys that ever get to the level to even be considered for the Derby is so low that I don't think there needs to be a amount won against the males to have be eligible. I think it takes a very special filly to beat the boys in any race let alone the Kentucky Derby. Too bad RTR was'nt running this year, we could of had our first possible Triple crown winning filly.

This year's three year old filly crop is just as good as the boys.....with that said; please run her in the Oaks! She's better suited and most of all, possibly better financially for me.

I found this interesting...

"Bob Holthus, who's preparing Pure Clan for the Kentucky Oaks, said that, of the 3-year-olds in training, the sheets gave Big Brown the best number (-1) for his Florida Derby victory, and Eight Belles the second best number (+3) for her Fantasy victory."

I don't see how anyone could think they are better than the colts. It isn't like any of the fillies are lighting the world on fire either.

Initially I agreed with you, but I've reconsidered my stance. Eight Belles has every right to take a shot, based on the boys' results. While Proud Spell might be a 'more likely' winner based on the likely race shape, Eight Belles might actually be the better of the two fillies.

If they both go in the Oaks, I may just use only those two in every multirace wager. Jones has an absolutely STACKED hand...