3rd Derby Future Book Wager
 

Horse (trainer) Sts. 1-2-3 Earnings Odds Last start

1. +Adriano (Motion) 7 3-1-0 $387,700 20-1 1st Lane's End
2. +Atoned (Pletcher) 8 2-5-0 $196,757 30-1 2nd Tampa Bay Derby
3. +Big Brown (R.Dutrow) 3 3-0-0 $662,700 3-1 1st Florida Derby
4. +Big Truck (Tagg) 7 3-1-1 $336,880 20-1 1st Tampa Bay Derby
5. Blackberry Road (Carroll) 9 1-2-2 $158,235 50-1 4th Louisiana Derby

6. Bob Black Jack (Kasparoff) 6 3-1-1 $292,925 30-1 3rd San Felipe
7. Colonel John (Harty) 5 3-2-0 $375,300 12-1 1st Sham
8. Cool Coal Man (Zito) 7 4-1-0 $307,531 15-1 1st Fountain of Youth
9. Court Vision (Mott) 5 3-1-1 $292,542 20-1 3rd Fountain of Youth
10. Denis of Cork (Carroll) 3 3-0-0-0 $198,552 15-1 1st Southwest
11. El Gato Malo (C. Dollase) 4 3-1-0 $200,200 12-1 2nd Sham

12. Gayego (Lobo) 4 2-2-0 $123,420 30-1 2nd San Felipe
13. +Liberty Bull (Amoss) 6 3-2-1 $403,592 50-1 1st WinStar Derby
14. +My Pal Charlie (Stall) 6 2-1-0 $161,310 50-1 2nd Louisiana Derby
15. Pyro (Asmussen) 6 3-2-1 $1,056,718 4-1 1st Louisiana Derby
16. +Salute the Sarge (Guillot) 7 4-2-0 $333,340 50-1 1st San Miguel
17. Smooth Air (Stutts) 7 3-2-2 $395,500 50-1 2nd Florida Derby
18. Tale of Ekati (Tagg) 5 2-1-0 $319,200 30-1 6th Louisiana Derby

19. Tomcito (Zanelli) 6 4-1-1 $$154,139 30-1 3rd Florida Derby
20. Visionaire (Matz) 5 3-1-1 $228,260 20-1 1st Gotham
21. War Pass (Zito) 6 5-0-0 $1,433,400 6-1 7th Tampa Bay Derby
22. Yankee Bravo (Gallagher) 4 3-0-1 $202,049 30-1 3rd La. Derby
23. Z Fortune (Asmussen) 5 3-1-0 $186,600 50-1 5th Rebel
24. All other 3-year-olds 15-1

Some fairly interesting 50-1 shots here.

Battaglia is all over the place. I never understand his line-making with this thing at all.

I never understood their choices, either- Adriano's connections SPECIFICALLY stated it is unlikely he goes- why not use the slot on someone else?

Generally agree with that, but as it happens, Don Adam now leaning towards running Adriano. That is as of yesterday via some first hand info...

Motion isn't worried about the horse handling the dirt. He's worried about him becoming unglued because of the commotion. He told me off the air that he doubts the colt can handle the Derby atmosphere.

Holy cow...now that's valuable inside info!

Hmmm... interesting. Motion's a damn good trainer and probably knows what's best for his horse- it's amazing more unruly types don't fall apart in the paddock at the Derby, which makes ME come unglued!!!

I guess I feel since like the DFW could be such a great thing with a little bit of work, that we've discussed ad nauseum, that in its current state it's fairly irrelevant.

I don't remember those discussions, Phil. Can you give me a quick recap?

This year's pool total for Pools 1 & 2 is the smallest since the first year, 1999. I'm not sure why that is, other than some platforms like YouBet not taking the wager. Is it really so much harder to bet it now than it was in 2000? Or is Churchill Downs promoting it less than they did in the early years?

I'm a little worried Churchill is going to drop it entirely.

--Dunbar

Basically the thought is how useless having only 23 single entries is, and how easy it would be to include ALL TC nominated horses, which would provide the value required of a future bet. Right now there isn't anything to gain by betting into this future pool other than pride.

Visionaire has piqued my interest. Where do you folks think he ends up?
Below or above 20-1?

Above 20-1 but he won't get the distance. Cool Coal Man will offer the most value when the pool closes imo.

Got him in the 2nd pool.....even though some laughed at me, still think he's a good longshot.

I took CCM in the 2nd pool... $55.40 payout for $2.

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

I agree with this, and think their might be a happy medium somewhere along the lines of maybe 80-100 horses, at least in the first pool. I think the 3rd pool overall is kind of a bad idea. Maybe just have one pool in early March that would make it more of an event?

Plus, anyone who has access to a Vegas sportsbook can usually get a great price on derby hopefuls they like anytime between October and March

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Not anymore you can't. Any horse that shows a HINT of ability instantly drops to 25-1... which isn't value in a future wager.

Phil, it's a 16% takeout. Same as race day. Just like on race day, some horses will be overhyped and some will be overlooked. And some people are kind enough to toss money in the future pool even though the horse they are betting on will run before the pool closes. (How much will be bet on War Pass, El Gato Malo, et al before they race this weekend?!) That doesn't happen on race day. Some bets are probably going to have value. All the usual complaints (horses might not make it into the starting gate, etc) don't change the underlying vig. If you truly think no individual horse has value, then "all others" would likely have value.

--Dunbar

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

That's TERRIBLE value

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...
:confused:

Last year, "all others" in Pool 3 closed at 25.5-1, but the average close since 2000 is 14-1.

Here are PP's for the 23 individual Pool 3 entries:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/..._123_pool3.pdf

--Dunbar

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

neither does he

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

Eight Belles will run in the Fantasy at Oaklawn, rather than the Arkansas Derby.

O/F..

Got ya... I was refering to Kentucky with Proud Spell (v. Eight Belles)...

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

Ya but who else are you getting that has any shot?

Horses like Turf War, Z Humor, and Majestic Warrior...horses with no shot. There is NO value in taking "all others" in Pool 3. None.

I guess that ends the discussion.

Nah.

I guess there's NO chance a surprise horse will emerge from the Blue Grass or the Arkansas Derby. (not to mention the chance that one emerges this weekend.) Zero chance.

We are talking about odds that will probably be somewhere between 14-1 and 20-1. For those odds to be fair, the horses should have a combined chance of winning of around 5-6%. Five horses from All Others make it on average. So, if one legitimate 30-1 shot and one legitimate 50-1 shot emerges from the remaining preps, the All Others would have value even if the rest had an average chance of 1/200 of winning the Derby. There's zero chance of that happening, of course.

The fact that horses from All Others of Pool 3 have gone on to win the Derby in 2 of the 9 editions of Pool 3 must have happened in some other universe.

--Dunbar

fwiw, I don't have a strong opinion about whether there is value in betting All Others in Pool 3. I do have a very strong opinion about whether the All Others horses could win the Derby. I'm sure, for instance, that I'd be all over it at 100-1, and I'd be confident there was huge value in that.

Wasn't saying Eight Belles was any kind of value at 15-1 and I won't be playing the future bet. Just saying that I like the horse and would like to her on my side if she goes in the Derby, along with the other horses that may impress in the last preps and end up in the field. Out of the 25 options listed, this is the one I would choose.

with today's technology, it would be so simple to adjust the totes if necessary. They can use that as an excuse, but it is not reality

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

I'll give you 30-1 right now without waiting to see what he does tomorrow.

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

What Pyro does in the Blue Grass will be about as relevant to my Derby handicapping as how he looked as a yearling and what his dosage index is. That race is a total toss. Look for another turf horse like Cowboy Cal to win it and possibly get you better than 6/1 on Pyro on Derby Day.

If that is the case then it is my only play of the weekend, this horse is going to win the Derby this year, so I guess I wouldn't mind a real bad performance on the tires.

Yeah, the worst thing that could happen would be for Pyro to take to the poly and run a big one.

it does, it may be the stupidest pool alive. in the first two, none of the above is usually the fave .if your a day to day person in this game. taking anything less than 30-1 in these things is dumb. as for the derby i've been burned enough times now to know better . betting horses like big brown or war pass at low odds is about the worse bet one can make! you got to take a shot in this race or just watch. if you don't go out on a limb you are wasting your time.

Cool Coal Man currently at 35-1!
 

Like I keep saying - CCM is the value in this pool. These odds are absurd.

Horses like Adriano (spaz/turf horse), Big Truck (slow), Court Vision (slow), El Gato Malo(poly horse/distance ?s), TOMCITO (needs more than 10F to win), Visionaire(distance limitations), and Z Fortune (awful last race) are ahead of him despite the fact that he's 2-for-2 this year (both at 9F), has faster beyers than almost all of them, has a win at CD, has the perfect stalking style for the derby, has top connections, is bred to route, etc...