4/5 (HAW): Illinois Derby (Gr. II)
 

7th (4:30) Illinois Derby (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 1 Recapturetheglory Baird E T Roussel, III Louie J 122 L 8-1
2 2 Instill Emigh C A Wainwright John C 122 L 15-1
3 3 Z Humor Douglas R R Mott William I 122 L 3-1
4 4 Atoned Bravo J Pletcher Todd A 122 L 4-1
5 5 Denis of Cork Leparoux J R Carroll David 122 L 2-1
6 6 Golden Spikes Thornton T Wolfson Martin D 122 Blk-Off L 5-1
7 7 Real Appeal Graham J Amoss Thomas 122 L 8-1

3,4/3,4/7

throwing DofC out, not a wise move.

DofC should CRUSH these. . . but i'm starting to get off his bandwagon. . .

IT IS FINE. he is a bigger mush then you are...

Just based on style, I'd be tempted to give Golden Spikes another shot after liking him in the FOY.

The track hasn't been exactly the conveyor belt up front and inside that it has been in years past, but closing out of the clouds isn't generally a really good idea. Someone within a length or two at the quarter pole should win it, and Golden Spikes might be the one, at a decent price.

Yay a 7 horse derby prep. :rolleyes:

Pretty surprised that it only got 7, think people are thinking that Denis of Cork is the real deal.

Brian, that track will be cooked on Saturday, you know as well as I do.

Also note, the return of Louis Roussel III, or at least his name on the program. My guess is that Lara is still doing all the work but he always wins races in Chicago, I would consider Recapturetheglory a little in your exotics....

Why would any owner or trainer with half a sack be scared of Denis of Cork?

He was pretty fast last time, I don't know, but I doubt he loses against that field....

Just looking at Derby contender pp's I'd say he'll have a hard time catching Atoned if the early pace isn't retarded like it was in the Southwest.

Com' on Kryptonite!! Com' on Kryptonite!!

There are three 8.5f races at Hawthorne on Saturday before the 9f Illinois Derby.
I think it is unwise to settle on how you are going to play this race until you see the results of those three races and can better determine how the track is playing that day.
As Scav seemed to suggest, it seems that the Hawthorne course sometimes plays slightly differently on Illinois Derby day than it does at other times of the meet.........especially if the horses have to contend with ostrich turds in the stretch, as they have in years past.

Ostrich turds... that's priceless miraj...

DoCork's recent works AT CHURCHILL... look like Carroll trying to put a little speed in him so he won't close from way way back... Think it's his to lose..
Atoned had a good one first off layoff but just gave out... should be pretty tight for this one... Real Appeal is my value horse 11/24 was a good race.. jumped start and 8 wide???? and then a nice run in Tex Heritage off break...
nice recent work at FG and then under the spires...

Are they having the ostrich racing again, those are pretty classic right there

This race is not exactly packed with speed, on a track which can go speed crazy overnight. It's that reason why I cannot toss Golden Spikes after looking at the race. Otherwise, he's holding something similar to the O2X figure pattern and is sitting on a massive regression.

Even though he was almost 20 lengths off the pace with four furlongs to go in the Southwest - he was still in mid-pack, in front of more than half of the rest of the field.

Sacred Journey - who is better suited to quarter horse distances than two turn route races......had run off to such an insane margin through such a strong pace that it made everyone from the 4th place finisher back appear to be doing more closing than they really were.

Best early feel......
 

I think the 4th race may give a hint on the 'type' of track we're dealing with. A couple of solid frontrunners and some mid-pack and closers as well. The first is a $4000 claimer and the second is a straight maiden affair. Not sure either of those will be too reliable. I just haven't seen horses make up a ton of ground in the stretch so far at the meet.

If the track is souped up with the inside bias, I'll consider playing Recapture the glory at a nice price. If it looks to be playing fair, I may take a stab at the outside horse, Real Appeal. He nearly won the the KJC last fall with a brutal trip, but I'm wondering how "key" that race really is, with regards to how Anal Nakal and Blackberry Road have failed to progress as many expected.

Interesting stuff. I think Steve has pretty much said the same thing about DoC.

I am looking for Atoned to run big.

It is Louis Roussel: http://www.drf.com/news/article/92575.html

He and Ronnie LaMarque (Risen Star connections thus the name) were both there to saddle him at the Fairgrounds.

If you have CD/FG log in the archives are still up 2/29/08 R8. Came in third in an N1X Allowance on the turf. 5 starts - 1-1-2
Nice looking colt and it was fun to see them both back in the paddock.
Oh and his 1 win came at Hawthorne.

If he is in Chicago, the horse will run well. Lara takes care of his stable when it is up here.....One of the best angles was when they would have like three entered on a card, and all of a sudden Roussel was in the Arlington paddock, at least two of them was going to win that day.

I follow his stable real closely

Lara or Roussel?
Lara was hot, hot, hot at the beginning of the FG meet, then he went to Oaklawn.
(EDIT:Oooops, I was thinking of Jorge Lara, scratch that statement.)

Yeah, it's good to see Roussel come back, he has aged though.
They got nice write up from Bob Fortus in the Times Picayune sports section.
They both looked happy in the paddock on the 29th, thought Ronnie LaMarque was going to break out in a song....:p

I'll be interested to see what the colt does on Sat. big step up, but like you said I wouldn't leave him out either.

Why, thank you Favorite Trick

Though I would think the horse needs to win if they want to go the the Big Dance

The race is unbettable, to me

Why would he need to win in order to go? If he runs a decent race and cashes a check that guarantees him a spot in the gate, why wouldn't they go?

If he is up here, which is sounds like he might be (especially because of the two maidens debuting right after) then the horse has a huge shot to run real well. I am guessing he might only need 2nd money to get into the picture, because of his 3rd place in that race at Churchill.

Two of his horses are favorites of mine, Zarb's Magic and In Secure, Zarb's Magic was an Arlington legend, just never lost her, not really sure what happened to him, but I think he would be about 12 or 13 now.

In Secure was a homebred of his by AP Indy. She ran in the Prioress as a 3 year old and was the nuts that day at like 12/1, they absolutely loved her and she ran HUGE, but got a real bad ride by Chavez (He tried putting her through a hole that didn't exist). Didn't see her after that. I just saw the other day that she had has two babies, one by Gulch and the other by Tale of the Cat, both were promptly put into the stable mail, my guess is we will see them at Arlington this summer.

They could still go for the fun and hoopla, but ...



...you know what? I stand corrected. I was thinking Dennis of Cork hadn't run since late last fall, but he ran in February

I'll still pass the race wagering, but if Dennis is within two lengths at the finish Saturday I'd say go to the Derby, too

I totally forgot about that horse. Nice call for a couple memories.

Pedigreequery says she foaled a St. Liam in 2007, too.

I wouldn't completely rule out using the longest shot on the board (the Illinois horse) if the price is right.
He never ran a step over the tires in Kentucky, but his last two races over this surface are actually fairly competitive with these colts. His last race here was particularly nice, and a repeat of that performance could make him a factor. Being reunited with Emigh is also a big plus in my book.
He isn't a likely winner, but if you are going deep or playing exotics, I think he might be worth a play if the price is right.

supposedly denis of cork is supposed to run well in his next start, not this one...if you listen to the powers that be when they explain their rationale for leaving oaklawn and skipping a prep. based on that, i would include him underneath, but wouldn't place a win bet-especially at the odds he will be at. bettor beware, they aren't looking for a huge effort from this colt this race.

That's trainer speak...and what most people refer to as polishing a turd.

possibly


just hope that if he doesn't fire, there won't be people squawking about how the trainer didn't have him ready to go, that it's another cover up or something of that nature. they've been pretty open about the way they were working towards the derby....as to whether it works for them is another story....

That Prioress raceday was one of the largest beats of my life. I really stepped out on her and got out of my comfort zone but I just knew she was going to run well there.

She was wheeled up and down in every exotic possible, large WP on her and I can't remember if she was p3 or p4 singled....It was brutal...

here, relive my heart attack

http://www.nyra.com/Belmont/Broadcas...ring2003.html#

And go down to the Prioress, she was the three horse

If Dennis of Cork was pointed for this, wouldn't Albarado be in to ride him? Nothing against Leparoux but his extremely patient style probably will not serve him well this Saturday at Hawthorne. All I know is if you're a rider, you find a highly regarded 3YO colt and he takes precedence over the other mounts. Of course, Albarado may be thinking DoC's win was a product of a blazing pace that fell apart late.

julian is tons better then robby TONS
i would want leparoux anyday over robby

Man how do you figure this? Julien is tons better than Robby. What's the matter? Robbie would be tired after winning in Dubai? Never the mind, Dennis of Cork is the real deal. I am not going to start backing up to these posts anymore. Julien is a great rider and I hope he enjoys smokin' them at Sportsman's, excuse me, Hawthorne. Denis for President.:)

I don't know if he's the right rider for this race on Saturday. He's great on the synthetic tracks and grass because he wants to wait, wait some more then wait even longer.

As for Albarado, that's a questionable move by the agent. The money for 3YO colts/geldings is so good you have to follow them and pick up other stakes runners when you can. His mount in the Ashland is a contender, but by no means is a lock.