Big Brown Derby Odds off of win
 

10-1.... Any thoughts as to overlay or underlay ?

Right now I think that's overlayed, but who knows?

Where are these odds? That seems like a pretty big overlay. You'll be lucky if you get half that on Derby day.

Off that effort.....underlay no doubt. If War Pass comes up a clunker next week, Big Brown will be 2-1 or less.

Update

The number is on Bodog BUT I just noticed that the wager was closed so it probably was prior to yesterdays race... I'll repost when it opens but my thoughts are 4-1 or less

War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.

You make a good point here. A super effort in the Wood could make for an interesting odds scenario going into the Derby.

Like I said...the War Pass vs. Big Brown showdown in the Derby, I'm looking forward to.....setting things up for someone like.......
Georgie Boy ??? :D

Georgie Boy? I doubt it.

Good as any in this group, fun to root for a horse with pedigree like that.

At 10/1 I would even play the horse....

Try more like 4/1 favorite, especially becuase they will connect him to the "Barbaro route"

106 beyer for Big Brown,,, that makes him that favorite in the Derby.

Pincay thinks Big Brown is the next Bellamy Road.

I don't see anything exciting on the west coast.

I'll be rooting for a horse in the Derby as well, but that doesn't mean I think he can actually win it. Hint hint:



:D

All kidding aside, I didn't care for Georgie's last race when he didn't switch leads. If he fails to do that in the Derby, he'll have a hard time winning... running on the wrong lead like that can make a horse tired and that would be the last thing he needs in a 10 panel race. JMO of course.

just to say big brown is 3-1 fav now over here for the ky derby after last night..

That sounds about right.

funny you say that, since i was thinking big brown was this years bellamy road!

isn't anyone concerned about big browns stretch run? he seems to want to run all over the thing. come derby day, something like that can get you killed.

The performance was impressive, especially all the hype regarding the poor post. Elysium Fields was very disappointing, Tomcito ran a decent race off a lay off and Steve predicted a good run from Smooth Air.Lets see what happens after the Wood and which War Pass shows up, I could see a speed duel in the derby setting up nicely for El Gato Malo or Court Vision.

I like how the horse couldn't make up his mind between the rail and the ambulance path.

Reported to have a fever going into the race. Now thats away to ruin a good horse.

10-1 without a scratch refund is a risky wager when you have a health issue

The last thing I heard was that he came out of the race fine. The connections said the heat of the day bothered him.

Big Brown reminded me of Hammer'n Hank coming down the stretch. His stretch run was as bad as Hank's commentary.

Prediction: Big Brown will be the final Derby Future Pool favorite.

Heard it from Brad Free this morning.

I know it's easy to pile on Hank, but he really is the worst. I kinda liked El Gato Malo for the Derby until I saw that he was Hank's top pick.

Should be but I dont know where. We will see it in the next day if its true.

NOT being very good also might've played a role. Watching him get zapped at CRC in December, sort of clued me in that this dude is not exactly top tier.

Well said. :D

Feets Don't Fail Me Now!
 

Paraphrasing Little Feat's 1974 album title, "Feats Don't Fail Me Now", Big Brown's feet may have more impact on his ability to make Kentucky Derby starting gate than any other factor. He sure liked his shoes yesterday!

LMFAO

thought the field was mediocre. but love when horses run like war pass and big brown. both are speed and its usually the kiss of death in the derby. one will hit the board, one will be up the track. if they both even start. even better they'll take all the sucker money. big brown was tired at the end if he makes another 1/8 with that breeding i'll be surprised. in the derby anything under 3-1 is a bad bet. especially the way the crops of been . the fave rarely wins

I could have had 7-1 at CRIS immediately after the race yesterday, but decided against it. First, I wasn't sure that was good enough; second, I already have a good chunk of change on All Others from Pool 1 of the Ky Derby Future Wager, and a smaller amount on All Others from Pool 2.

Odds now at both CRIS and World Sports Exchange are a ridiculous 2-1. If Pinnacle and TheGreek get around to posting odds, it will be closer to 4-1, I think.

--Dunbar

I don't have the time to go through the charts to verify, but the favorites at post time have done at least reasonably well the last dozen years or so at the Derby. Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Barbaro come to mind (though Sweetnorthernsaint may have been the betting favorite, I really can't recall).

I have heard that Pinnacle is shuting out horse people now, especially the winners......

i have a hard time believing he'd be 3-1. smarty was the fave at 4-1-with the size of the field, and no real superstar...