War Pass --DB ?
 

I'd don't know if this has been touched on or, if it has, whether it's been given enough emphasis.

While I'm not particularly interested in how fast War Pass ran last out, I was impressed by the uniqueness of the splits of his race.

23.94 22.78 25.18 24.48

So, it seems that he did something atypical in dirt racing, accelerating the final split.

Wonder if anyone with a database can see how rare this is at GP (or generally) at the distance (and others).

Part of the problem with the splits at Gulfstream is the short runup in mile races always seems to result in faster second quarters in those races. You actually see this in 1 1/16 races ( and probably mile races ) at Belmont which makes me question the runup they use in those races.

As for War Pass's final quarter being faster than his third quarter, well the third quarter was around a turn, and the stretch was the only time they aired him out at all in the race so I suppose it makes sense.

Contrary to what I've been reading from some esteemed posters here.....War Pass is a damn good horse with a solid resume. Unlike most of the other 3YOs, or really any of them, it shouldn't be surprising if he does something a little better than most.

Obviously, I agree with your statement but I don't think I've seen too many horses accelerate in the stretch on the dirt going a route. You might see it every so often in a sprint on a jacked up MED track or in poly sprints.

While the earlier splits were certainly not impressive, they weren't slow enough to detract from the impressiveness of the acceleration. This was a unique run.

Of course, maybe someone can run a query and show that the run wasn't unique at all.

Well, apparently you and I are in the minority around here that seem to think that War Pass is a tremendously talented horse. Very little he does on the positive side will really surprise me.

People are so used to throwing undeserved superlatives at horses that when an actually superior animal comes around they are confused.

up until now, i would say he will run away and hide from any other 3 year old.
:confused: what about that frankel filly out of empire maker. she might be as good as the rest of the colts.........

She will actually have to run to demonstrate that. So far she's shown that she's good on polytrack and turf. She's certainly got a lot of ability but I'll reserve judgement until she shows us what she can do on the dirt.

agree, she just looks special to me......

Sharp post. Racing fans naturally gravitate towards anything that resembles something good because of this desperate need for a superstar. It's over-used and when something good does come around, people stutter.

I think this plays into that larger idea that horseplayers are so jaded and cynical, that a good thing truly isn't. War Pass could win the Derby by 10 and people would still find fault.

Horseplayers... they're never happy.

Well, Travis, if I was to tell you why I think that is I would just come of as insulting.

I will say that I wish everybody would bet enough money on the opinions they post on the internet so that when they lose it hurts enough to try to figure out why they formed a poor opinion. That's one thing you can learn by wagering that you probably won't by simply spewing opinions with little or no financial involvement.

Um, for the record, I have him ranked #1, and I am the only person on the Derby site to give him the nod over Pyro.

I also have Zanjero ranked #3 in the handicap division. (this is sort of a joke)

How's Jill Byrne doing? Is she going to be ready for the derby?

Funny.. I felt the same way in '06 when there seemed to be a significant contingent of DT posters that refused to give Bernardini credit for anything he did.

War Pass is a very nice horse.

I think that he's a bit overrated and that he won't win the Derby.

If that makes me jaded and cynical, then.. I don't know.

I have to confess that I've felt a subtle bias against War Pass. Maybe it's because "[p]edigree is more important than any handicapping factor other than current form."

Seriously, War Pass does not have the most impressive stamina-favoring ancestry (DP = 13-5-9-0-1 (28) DI = 4.09 CD = 1.04). But I guess the dosage thing has to be put into perspective:
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...jay&id=3275375

We've all seen precocious two-year olds who don't seem so special when their classmates catch up. On the other hand, I was the tallest kid in my kindergarten class and remained the tallest kid in my class right up to high school (if you don't count Alvin C., who stayed back three times and was the only kid in 8th grade who could legally drive).

I guess what I'm saying is that just because War Pass has had early success and has dominated his peers so far doesn't necessarily mean that he's due for a fall. The truth is that he's given no hints that he can't get the Derby distance. And until he does, he's got to stay near the top of the list. I remember people saying Smarty Jones had no breeding for stamina, either. Whether or not that was true, he still won.

But, I will be watching Tampa Bay very closely this weekend.

90% of your posts are over my head, and this one is no exception.

I was told she came up lame after the churchill fall meet. Being that you're a Churchill blogger/handicapper I figured you would know if she's back in training or not.

As far as I know, Jill is fine. She was at FG last weekend. I will pass along your concern.

This is an easy enough one to learn. And it's ongoing.

The one I have trouble with is when I actually form a CORRECT opinion and still lose (due to circumstances beyond my control).

That's just horse racing. The better your opinion is the more tough beats you will take as the more often your horses will be actual contenders and thus distinctly affected by the vagueries of racing.

I agree that War Pass is a very talented horse. I just wish they would try to rate him before he gets hooked up on the lead of the Derby with the DWL sprinter that will go a 46 half. If he proves he can rate even a little, he could be the best.

I think everyone should agree that it is absurd for War Pass to get any credit for his comeback race - because he ran a big final 1/4 mile fraction.

Much like with Daaher in the Cigar Mile - he was allowed totally unopposed on an uncontested early lead - through VERY soft fractions - a trip that has always been and will always be considered the best dirt trip in all of horse racing.

Daaher should have been just buried here for his phony win in the Cigar Mile - but the tone seemed to be like he proved he was some real authentic excellent horse with the win.... because he got his final quarter mile in a supersonic 23 4/5ths, which propelled him to a 116 Beyer.

If people still don't want to believe that an unpressured lead through soft fractions in a small field - is that good of a trip - just focus in another race at the same distance that day.

An N1X allowance for 3yo fillies won by Halo Hollie that day, at THE SAME distance as War Pass, featured a six furlong fraction of 1:10.65. The unpressured War Pass ran his six furlong fraction in 1:11.90.

I realize it was a meaningless comeback race and all - but if a horse is going to get praised for an effort that came with a once in a lifetime type good trip - the least he should be required to do is run a good figure.

In the BC Juvy, War Pass got an easy lead, even though he set very fast fractions, and no one came to get him because no one else ran at all except for Pyro. I think it had something to do with the condition of the track. Pyro ran much better against War Pass when the track wasn't in that sort of condition in the Champagne. In fact, it looked like to me that War Pass loved those conditions, and maybe improved over the surface. He has never ran anywhere close to as good as he did in the BC Juvy. Also, there may have been a little bit of a rail bias at the beginning of the day. Still, I think the two best horses at that time won the two Juvy races.

I think War Pass is a very good horse, but not as good as everyone is making him out to be.

In his comeback at GP, he was loose on the lead yet again, but wasn't all out for that race, which accounts for the lower BSF. They are definitely trying to leave as much as they can in the tank. He ran some at the end of his allowance, but he still could have given more.

The only race that War Pass hasn't been loose on the lead is his first start, and he certainly didn't crush some inferior horses.

We shall see how good he is...

If he can still win the Derby on the lead while being pressured, and holding off horses like Colonel John and El Gato Malo who can currently run their last 1/8 of a mile and an eighth race in less than 12 seconds, then I will say this is a great horse.

When War Pass beats a horse like this, I will get excited...
This is one of the prettiest moving animals that I have ever seen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZqXyVN03mE&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6w_J...eature=related

I'll let BTW make a second effort at explaining how decieving it is that horses "could have run a lot faster" in a race if not "all out" with the jock riding hard at the end.

I thought it was interesting that the chart caller labeled the win "driving" - and not "ridden out" ... but that's pointless anyway.

War Pass was OUTSTANDING in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

His comeback race was nothing more than a paid workout ... and hopefully Zito has him ready to make a significant forward leap off of that race.

If that Feb 24th win by War Pass wasn't a comeback race - I would be relentlessly bashing the performance.

The old " more in the tank " concept makes me laugh. If people want to believe that then I can't convince them otherwise. I know if you rely on it for betting purposes you will get thrashed.

Like you I make nothing of his comeback race. Evaluating it is pointless. His previous record speaks for itself. Now we have to see what kind of 3YO he will be.

His last was a public workout, as will be this weekend. Doubt he will be all out this weekend either.

It's interesting ---well, actually it's not as is typical here --

that we're getting alot of rhetoric and even rhetoric with examples that some think actually make a point BUT

we have no data --we're thus off course

surely, there's ONE dirt race at GP that came home faster the last fraction

with all the PEDESTRIAN 1st qtr mile races (yeah, I know about the runup) surely
some horse better than WP has accelerated in the stretch, especially in a NON WORKOUT race

I'm not even a WP fan but I can certainly properly intrepret unique performances.

Still waiting for the 'counterexample'

in Commentator's ALW comeback, he ran his final quarter mile in 24.28 seconds - a full 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass ran his...and KYRIM will be pleased to note that Commentator was every bit as restrained through the lane.

The problem is, that while Commentator only ran 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass in the last quarter - Commentator ran his first six furlongs in 1:09.43 while War Pass ran his first six furlongs in 1:11.90.

So, basically, in similar allowance races against nothing fields - with similar trips over the same track and distance - Commentator ran 2.47 seconds faster for the first 6f's (about 15 lengths) - and still finished with a final quarter time 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass.

TFM, by making a big deal about the final quarter turned in by War Pass being faster than his 3rd quarter - you are basically in a way giving him credit for accelerating after a VERY soft 3rd quarter of 25.18 seconds. A breather!

If he couldn't do that ... he wouldn't even be a good allowance horse.

I'm aware of Commentator's splits.

My SINGLULAR point still remains, however, as you didn't respond to it.

Surely there've been quite a few SOFT PACED miles at GP this year, why have there been NO OTHER examples where the winner accelerates the final quarter. I could be wrong here. Maybe some horse came off the pace and did exactly this.

I simply started this thread to see if someone with a DB could look this up.

I'm looking to throw WP out as a derby threat. All I need is ONE example.

What are you talking about? The only reason he technically "accelerated" in his final quarter is because he ran such a soft third quarter..

you mean pg1985....oh wait, my bad, same thing.

KYRIM's a fan of the belief that War Pass didn't get a big figure because he "wasn't all out" - while Commentator got his 119 Beyer under identical circumstances at the same distance and track and also "wasn't all out."

Or are you saying KYRIM and PG are the same person?

Thebby, if so, it's a happy day for men with Italian last names everywhere.

Just by watching the horse's races over and over again and watching the horse's movement in the race, I would say that War Pass wasn't all out. The only thing I know for sure is that I have seen him run faster. I'll go watch it one more time just to make sure.

It is the same with Bernardini. Bernardini wasn't all out in the Jim Dandy, but was in all of his subsequent races after that.

Big Brown also looked like he wasn't all out in his last start. Whether he was actually restrained or it was the change in the surface, I don't know. I've also seen him run faster.

Their movement in the stretch dictates if they are running as fast as they can or not. You have to compare that from race to race to know in these kinds of situations.

And I am not pg1985.

I hear ya ...

I was acutally going to go through the charts and find him an example - but, the very first race I looked at was Monday's only one-turn mile race.

In that race - a 25K filly claimer ran her 3rd quarter in 24.43 and her final quarter in 24.64. A whopping 0.21 second deceleration from a nothing filly. And we are supposed to be impressed that War Pass showed a 0.70 second acceleration after a 25.18 3rd quarter?

Hopefully someone with a database can answer TFM's question.

Commentator was all out in his last.

War Pass was not all out in his last.

One of the pace figure makers really needs to answer this one. My intent all along.

"24.48?"

"oh thats not too bad"

"what was the penultimate?"
"25.18?, oh that explains it somewhat"

"it was graded stakes level horse, running against claimers under wraps until the stretch?" "oh never mind"

no one was talking about Commentator's last race - he got a taste of real pace pressure early on in that race.

His 119 Beyer allowance win was two starts back.

Sorry, my mistake.

People have taken a pass on War Pass?

I have not seen this. Its always fashionable
to try to find another but this horse clearly
has established an incredible sustained cruising rate.
Far better than any other horse as a 2 and now a 3 year
old. If this horse stays sound, draws well, and the Derby
track plays fast like many times in the past he does not
get caught.

Who in the devil does not like this horse?

PG1985

It's ok.

I still love ya.