2/24 (GP): Fountain of Youth (Gr. II)
 

9th (5:15) Fountain of Youth S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $350,000

1 Cool Coal Man Desormeaux K J 118 L
2 Golden Spikes Castellano J J 116 L
3 Court Vision Gomez G K 122 L
4 Kentucky Bear Trujillo E 116 L
5 Z Humor Velasquez C 120 L
6 Ready Set Lezcano J 116 L
7 Monba Prado E S 116 L
8 Anak Nakal Leparoux J R 120 L
9 Elysium Fields Coa E M 116 L
10 Halo Najib Douglas R R 120 L
11 Make the Point Velazquez J R 116 L
12 Adriano Castro E 116 L

I'm a little surprised by some of the Jockey assignments.
Prado on Monba?
Surprising JV or Gomez isn't riding what could be Pletcher's best hope for a Derby contender.
And I thought Leporoux was on Court Vision?

I'm been high on him as well. An inside post would've been nice. :mad:

He does look like a contender. Always in the hunt. Right now, I am very interested in Make The Point. McLaughlin is the man when it comes to stretch outs and 2nd off. Will I get a price??

Monba for me here.

kentucky bear./e fields /momba tri

Personally I think this is a really good betting race. It seems like you could go a lot of different ways with this one, but I think Zito's chances here are very good.

Coa has ridden Anak and Court Vision and now on E. Fields.
I find this interesting. I have no idea about arrangements
and trainers likes and dislikes with Jockey's "fitting" certain
horses. Is it that Coa made this choice and will it be as
bad as Calvin's decision to take Turf war getting off the
winner...?
I dont often trust the Jockey's decisions if they are given
that privilege.

What has Court Vision done wrong thus far? The only thing I can see is Mott entered him in a slow paced Remsen and the jock managed to get him bottled up until the 1/8 pole. He ran a much better race than the 76 BSF said he did.

Since this is his first race back he could be a little short. Plus his running style might not be right for the Gulstream Park track. There seems to be enough speed horses in the field to run a legitimate pace. If the track is fair he might be able a serious player. He'll be on my multis and if he's 4-1 or higher I'll place a win bet on him.

That's for sure. I count six horses that should be on or near the lead, and Pletcher appears to be putting some speed into Monba as well. I think the race sets up well for a horse like Court Vision, provided he doesn't drop too far out of it. Then again, I could see half the field winning this race.

The tricky thing about this race in terms of wagering is this race is only a prep race for Court Vision. Winning the race might not be the goal for the connections.

And this is what I don't get... why wouldn't the connections want their goal to be a win for their horse in a prep? Is it some sort of jinx to have your horse actually WIN the race that it's entered into? Another thing too is that this race is a prep for most of them entered, not just Court Vision...

excellent point!

premeditated excuse perhaps???

maybe to build a foundation for a race that has a longer distance, is more prestigious, and has bigger purse - but thats too obvious

So, are you saying that the winner of the prep race doesn't gain that same foundation?

The winner may need the graded earnings to get in so may be cranked up to peak for this effort to assure they get the earnings. Court Vision already has the earnings so they can take it easier with him and work towards a peak performance on Derby Day. Personally I think Court Vision will lose because he's too slow, not because he isn't cranked up but the more excuses I can give for the horse the more likely people are to continue burning money on him this year.

:o

That will be me, probably. LOL

if adriano at all takes to dirt, and he's bred much better for dirt racing than turf racing, this race is over.

his 2nd dam was the very nice theatrical mare golden treat, who couldnt run a step on turf, but did manage to set a track record for 4.5 furlongs on dirt and later won the santa anita oaks. golden treat herself is also a half sister to the greatly under appreciated bet twice.

his last race was spectacular, so either he just really loved the gp turf, or he has matured and developed.

my only question is why were they running this horse on turf in the first place?

The usual reason.....he sucks on the dirt.

based on what BTW?

he debuted on turf as a pretty early season 2yo. and if he sucks on dirt, why the placement of him here, instead of aiming him for all the turf races and a likely turf eclipse award?

those ap indy - mr p mare crosses sure seem okay on dirt to me, and this horse has no turf breeding in him at all.

it seems pretty far fetched to say he sucks on dirt at this point.

He'll have to be a super horse to win from that post AND have Eddie Castro on his back.

Building the foundation is part of it, but the prep race is more about not being 100% cranked and shooting your wad before the main goal. The ideal scenario in my opinion for a prep is a real easy win, where you get some foundation and the check, without hurting the muscles. Figuring out preps/intent is tricky.

yeah, the post is a concern, but this field is so awful, i actually think court vision and monba look like standouts (minus adriano). i think both of those are pretty weak at that, so my perhaps wishful thinking says he can overcome his post based on being superior.

as for the jock, well, i think they are all liabilities. anyone not named gomez at this point seems to be a cancer.

Agreed.

It seems pretty far fetched that he's good on the dirt actually.

Trainers run horses on the turf, unless they have exceptional turf breeding and no dirt breeding, because they are too slow to run competitively on the dirt. The opportunities and financial upside in dirt racing FAR outweighs turf racing in this country. For this reason, trainers will rarely run on the turf first out unless they are fairly certain the horse has no affinity for the dirt. Sometimes they will try once, see Cowboy Cal, but once their opinion has been confirmed they will go the grass. It is very rare that a horse that begins its career on the turf will run well on the dirt in subsequent starts. Occasionally at trainer will use a turf start as a prep, but clearly this isn't the case for Adrianno.

There are no absolutes in this game but over my lifetime of playing horses I have benefited greatly from tossing horses like Adrianno who are bet on the dirt based on grass races. These horses bomb way more often than not.

Of course, now seeing that you like Monba, not to mention Court Vision, I see you are completely confused.

Monba, in my opinion, is the very essense of the emperor's new clothes. Where the phuck is his good race? If he was trained by Joe Nobody, and not Pletcher, he would be 15-1.

[quote=blackthroatedwind]The usual reason.....he sucks on the dirt.

I would disagree. I think that Motion is a trainer that puts everything on the turf first, then if they don't handle it, use the dirt as the back up surface.
Afterall, he does train his horses on the Tapeta at Fair Hill. When horses work good on the synthetic, trainers automatically assume they want the turf.
Bottom line is that G. Motion is a turf trainer; and imo as good of a horseman as we have in the game.

I don't think this field looks awful at all. There are no sure-fire standouts to be sure, but there are a number of horses who are coming off fairly nice races in their last starts.
Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Anak Nakal, Elysium Fields, and Make the Point are all coming off decent wins. For a race like the Fountain of Youth, I don't think this is a terrible field.

Graham Motion is a very good trainer.....and apparently not an idiot. He would have run this horse on the dirt if he felt it liked the surface. He runs plenty of horses, including 2YOs, on the dirt.

actually, no, i dont like either of them. i think both court vision and monba have very little talent and are virtual no hopes for the triple crown races.

my point in saying they looked like standouts in that race (minus adriano) is that the rest of the field looked like even bigger garbage.

cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.

i find kentucky bear quite interesting, but it isn't the most favorable spot for a horse coming off it's debut, is it?

z humor? ick

ready set looks awful.

anak nakal has the potential to win this, but i just don't get the hype on this horse. he looks worse than court vision, but who knows.

the sniper horse, elysium fields, does nothing for me at this point, though he does have some upside.

halo najib? another horse with some hype that doesn't seem well founded to me.

make the point is a big question mark to me, but i dont like the breeding for this distance. i suppose i should watch a race of his though before i condemn him.

i can think of a few horses that debuted on turf and ended up doing okay on dirt, but most horses that do debut on turf are bred for it, so it's not that surprising to me that most don't make a successful transition.

i dont know man. cool coal man looks awful if you ask me. you can make an okay case for the others you name, but i really feel that adriano is such a much better horse than anyone in here, that he really needs to only handle the dirt to beat these.

think halfbridled in the bc dude.

if one is so much better than the others (assuming he doesn't hate dirt, as BTW implies), he should be able to overcome some lost ground.

How many have overcome that lost ground at Gulfstream?

[quote=Indian Charlie]if adriano at all takes to dirt, and he's bred much better for dirt racing than turf racing, this race is over.QUOTE]

[quote=cool coal man looks pretty bad as does golden spikes.QUOTE]

IMO the larger issue (not that the turf/dirt question is inconsequential) is the post. Out of 18 2 turn races on the dirt at GP this meet, 17 have been won from the 1 through 4 posts (12 (66%) by the 1 and 2 alone). I wouldn't touch this horse at 40-1.

Might also want reconsider Cool Coal man and Golden Spikes who both look to sit perfect trips from the inside.

Not at 9 furlongs at Gulfstream.

Is Barbaro still the only one to win from an outside post since the reconfiguration? How many have won from 9-12?