Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)
 

From Steve Davidowitz (Courtesy of DRF), here are the 23 individual future wager entities:

Here are thumbnail sketches of the 23 horses in Pool 1. The most obvious common denominator is that all but a few seem close together in Derby potential.

IN MAROON: Races this weekend..

* Anak Nakal: Won the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill in November over Blackberry Road, yet his breeding suggests he might need even longer distances than the Kentucky Derby for his best.

* Blackberry Road: Has several in-the-money finishes in graded stakes routes, which may limit his speculative potential to the superfecta on Derby Day.

* Bob Black Jack: Winner of the recent Sunshine Millions Dash has sprint breeding and seems a question mark for graded stakes routes.

* Colonel John: Stretch-runner bred for classic distances was second to highly regarded Into Mischief in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December. Would be a big surprise to see him at acceptable odds in this pool.

* Court Vision: Trained by Bill Mott, this son of Gulch won all three of his route races, including the one-mile Iroquois at Churchill and the nine-furlong Remsen at Aqueduct last fall. Another likely to be among the most popular choices in Pool 1.

* Cowboy Cal: Three-time turf winner trained by Todd Pletcher is following a path by design that resembles 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His dirt test is coming soon, so he could be an interesting price stab here.

* Crown of Thorns: Won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 2 when stretched out in distance for the first time and is one more big race away from solidifying his trip to Louisville.

* Denis of Cork: Won his lone start last season at Churchill and came back with a promising allowance win around two turns in the slop at Fair Grounds on Jan. 19. Has classic distance breeding and might be worth a small flyer at huge odds.

* El Gato Malo: Undefeated in three starts on three different synthetic tracks in California. Rated kindly behind the speed types in the one-mile Gold Rush at Golden Gate Fields and the Grade 3 San Rafael at Santa Anita. Will he continue to improve at longer distances?

* Etched: Strong winner of both career starts last year, including the one-mile, Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Oct. 20. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses. Consider for Future Wager play.

* Georgie Boy: Won the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity in a mad scramble Sept. 8 and was scratched from the Sunshine Millions Dash, so we have not yet seen if he is a more mature 3-year-old. Long odds available for those who believe.

* Giant Moon: Undefeated New York-bred won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct on Jan 5, but will have to show more in graded stakes before he can be seriously considered.

* Into Mischief: Improved to win the CashCall at 1 1/16 miles around two turns at Hollywood on Dec. 22 for Hall of Famer Dick Mandella, who also trains Crown of Thorns. Like many of the highest rated California based 3-year- olds, he has not yet run on a dirt track.

* Majestic Warrior: As hinted above, might be the best Derby prospect Hall of Fame trainer Mott has ever had.

* Monba: Pletcher trainee was only fourth in the CashCall Futurity, but did finish well and is bred to improve as he matures.

* Pyro: Steve Asmussen trainee demonstrated enough when second to War Pass in the Champagne and BC Juvenile last fall to warrant attention. Scheduled to run in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 9 and a good performance probably will make him the betting favorite in Pool 1.

* Signature Move: Two-time allowance winner at 1 1/16 miles on synthetic tracks in Southern California is by undefeated 2002 juvenile champ Vindication. May offer some value at very long odds in this pool.

* Smooth Air: Gamely won the seven-furlong, Grade 2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream on Jan 5. Ambiguous distance breeding, but trainer Bennie Stutts Jr. has given him smart works for his next start in a route. Looms a possible roll of the dice for this pool.

* Tale of Ekati: Barclay Tagg trainee failed to handle the sloppy track at Monmouth when fourth to War Pass in the BC Juvenile and must prove that he will like two turns as much as he enjoyed one-turn sprints.

* War Pass: Undefeated Eclipse Award champion juvenile in 2007 is trained by two-time Derby winner Nick Zito. Has strong front-running speed and might outrun his pedigree's preference for middle distances.

* Yankee Bravo: British import won a stakes on grass at Santa Anita in December and then overpowered a modest field to win the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields on the synthetic Tapeta track on Jan. 27. Has some upside.

* Z Fortune: Undefeated winner of Lecomte at the Fair Grounds on Jan. 12, and a stablemate to Pyro, will get his chance to prove his class soon.

* Z Humor: Fifth-place finisher in the BC Juvenile for Mott and third-place finisher to War Pass in the Champagne, he returned in December to post a dead-heat victory (with Turf War) in the $1 million Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. Bred to improve as he matures and is likely to be a huge price in this pool.

Opinions are one thing, but it's another to not have your facts straight or to leave out pretty pertinent information.....


* Cowboy Cal: Three-time turf winner trained by Todd Pletcher is following a path by design that resembles 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His dirt test is coming soon, so he could be an interesting price stab here.


Ummmm......not according to his trainer Todd Pletcher who very recently said he is remaining on the grass and possibly will try the Blue Grass ( polytrack ) before a possible run in the Derby. Todd suggested it seemed that some turf horses liked the Churchill dirt surface but frankly sounded less than enthusiastic about running this horse on the dirt. Regardless, unless the Derby is " soon ", then as of the last report I read this information is inaccurate.


* Etched: Strong winner of both career starts last year, including the one-mile, Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Oct. 20. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses. Consider for Future Wager play.


Call me crazy, but don't you think it was worth mentioning that he is wintering in Dubai? Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses? Ummm, OK. Thanks.

yeah, that whole list writeup is pretty shaky.

majestic warrior?? uh, yeah, right.

i would be shocked to see that horse even run in the derby.

Yeah, I was going to mention that as well, but at least that's an opinion. Not an opinion you or I seem to agree with.....but he's entitled.

A horse that runs like a closing sprinter, who's dam was a closing sprinter, feels tough to recommend for the Derby.

i was going to critique his comments in greater detail, but felt he probably had a tough time coming up with something useful to say for most of those.

my commentary would have been more along the lines of eliminating all but a few of them.

back to majestic warrior however. all the hype on that horse revolves around a highly suspect race. wasnt it a three, or maybe four horse field?

one horse came out hurt and hasn't run back yet, and the other one, i dont think he's won or done anything useful back at all either.

he got a dream setup too.

mott cant really think he's his greatest derby prospect ever, can he?

come to think of it, he's not really a derby fever sorta guy anyways, so even if he does, it's not saying anything.

While I don't completely disagree with you guys' analysis regarding this colt, I don't think all the hype comes just from his performance in that race. Some of it is pedigree-hype too. If a horse with a different pedigree ran the exact same race that he did in the Hopeful, there would be far less Derby-hype. When a horse by AP Indy and out of a multiple-G1 winning daughter of Seeking the Gold runs that kind of race at 7f, people - perhaps understandably - start getting excited about the horse's potential when stretching out as a 3yo.
But of course, that still leaves the Champagne to explain away.

The pedigree stuff goes without saying.

Thank whatever deity you believe in that this horse is not named bob black jack!!

Yeah, and based on what we've seen from him thus far, (which isn't very much) it looks like there is a good chance he will take after her rather than his sire or dam-sire. I was just pointing out that I think seeing those two in his pedigree is a HUGE part of whatever hype there might be surrounding this horse.
If Mott really thinks he is a great Derby prospect, does he have some sort of explanation for the Champagne? Did he offer one after the race? I honestly can't remember.

Being that there isn't really a standout derby favorite as of yet, it would seem that the "Field" wager could easily be the best money wager in the pool this weekend.

Churchill Downs has given me a free $25 future wager so I'll probably play Anak Nakal, he should at least get there, and has the talent so what the hell, probably be decent odds since he isn't racing this weekend and people will forget about him after they unload on the winners of this weekend

No Barrier Reef (not nominated, but I am alomst positive CD has included non-nominees before).

No Check It Twice (Stakes winner at 2, under Pletcher's care, gets JV this weekend at FG).

Visionaire runs this weekend as well. Depending on how he looksm "Field" could be really good. If he runs a huge race or something, that is like getting one of the favorites and all others...

Yeah. Visionaire surprised me a little too, but since he's got no stakes experience, I probably shouldn't be surprised.

Yes but you forgot to mention the REAL oversight....the 10f monster herself.....Indian Blessing! I guess they just assume that Baffert might skip the Derby afterall, so he can have a fresh horse for the Belmont.

yea Pletch kind of made an early announcement that he was going the Barbaro Route... and now he switched plans and is going the less fun Twilight Meteor route (if u goes lanes end @ turfway) :D

Cowboy Cal is very impressive to me. He looks like a big turf horse, but he does have the running style. And he has amazing willingness at the finish. Some of those types strike the ground pretty hard when the run on dirt, and maybe it could be a concern as to preps (if he is derby bound at all). If he can run his race on dirt, look out.

dennis of cork struggled to get up in his last.the cali horses need to get a run on a dirt surface..Its feb..and of those mentioned crown of thorns is the best of all .giant moon gets a ding fom this guy..and no mention of zitos other horses....at this point its pretty foggy......

Okay.















































Thank you PG1985.....wherever you are......

Denis of Cork hated the off going in that ALW race according to everyone involved with him.

I agree. Still foggy and early.
I like Denis of Cork, not sure if he will be a big time horse or just a nice horse... I give him a little slack for that last race. With the track being off, Borel kind of sacraficed his usuall style to just win the race. Borel felt he was much the best, and he did the job, although it was workman-like and not flashy. I think it would have appeared much more impressive had the track been fast. Borel supposedly has commited to Turf War, and a jockey choice would be key for DoC. Who else can time and rally so well as Borel? Leparoux isn't terrible, but is he a Derby jockey?

To answer the last part, I think Leparoux is a Derby jockey and last I heard he will be on Court Vision when he returns and that is his mount indefinitely.

NT

thanks ! good info. They seem to be a pretty good fit.

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

He is my top choice right now too, although I agree with the others that it seems very probable (more probable than in years past) that the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby is not on this list.

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

My wallet hopes you're right.

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

Did they ask him?

They have included non nominees, and got their heads handed to them for doing so.

Check it Twice should be on the list.

Todd sounded more likely to go to dirt with Cowboy Cal a month or so ago when his only major dirt colt was Monba. Now that he has a couple moe to deal with he is less likely to use CC on dirt. Thus CC doesn't look like a great choice either. As for Georgie Boy, do the selectors not follow the maiden and allowance programs at GP/FG/SA at all? That's the best they could come up with?

Check it Twice is nominated.

Why?

Saw it on his facebook page..

Me too! :D

That 97 BSF was, I believe, the highest figure for a 2 yo going 2 turns on a fast track.

I like him a lot too. Heard he's no go for the FG race.

All this Dennis of Cork and Anak Nakal stuff I just don't get.

They ran a ton of 2yo races that day at Churchill - and the filly sprinter American County flat out stole the show from the 2yo races that day.

She ran six furlongs in 1:08 2/5ths and a few races later Dennis Of Cork won his debut in 1:22 2/5ths - basically, AC running a raw Beyer figure 17 points faster than DofC.

There were more than a few horses who earned themselves A LOT of hype on that card - for running races that make themselves look like slowpokes by comparison with American County's race that day.

I thought it was flat out comical they excluded Check It Twice. He was going to be my only play this weekend and for him not to be included is a joke with his credentials.

There's always way too much hype for the " they won at Churchill " horses. However, it's a better year than most to be unproven and on the cusp of being slow. I'm not so sure about Anak Nakal but I know someone that's very high on him. We'll see.

I'm confused by Check it Twice. His races prior to his last were OK but nothing special and considering what we've seen from Coal Play in his last two I'm really not sure what to make of the race. Maybe Check It Twice exists in a bubble, but to me there is more contrary evidence to him than positive. However, I agree with you that Pletcher rates to move him up.....but for how long? However, at least he has one possibly fast race, which is more than you can say for most 3YOs getting hype these days.