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-   -   Entries are up! Sumwonlovesyou July 11th (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14848)

Sightseek 07-06-2007 02:43 PM
Entries are up! Sumwonlovesyou July 11th
 
Arlington Park - July 11th, 2007 - Race 8
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:28 PM
Race Type: Allowance
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Sex: Fillies and Mares
Purse: $30,500
Distance: One Mile
Surface: All Weather Track
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Powder River (KY) 4 Filly 119 Rafael Mojica, Jr.
2 Miss Peachtree (KY) 4 Filly 119 James Graham
3 Queen of the Ridge (KY) 3 Filly 115 Jesus Lopez Castanon
4 Lady Eloquence (KY) 4 Filly 119 Jesse A. Lantz
5 Classic Tiara (FL) 3 Filly 117 Jesus Lopez Castanon
6 Pure Classy (KY) 3 Filly 115 Christopher A. Emigh
7 Green Door (KY) 3 Filly 115 Eusebio Razo, Jr.
8 Bid On a Dancer (IL) 5 Mare 119 Earlie Fires
9 Gazzella (KY) 3 Filly 115 Rene R. Douglas
10 Sumwonlovesyou (KY) 3 Filly 115 Willie Martinez

Antitrust32 07-06-2007 02:52 PM
does an outside post make a big difference at one mile at Arlington?

SniperSB23 07-06-2007 02:55 PM
I guess it is a safe bet that either the 3 or the 5 scratches.

otisotisotis 07-06-2007 02:58 PM
so much for worrying about drawing the rail.;)

horseofcourse 07-06-2007 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
does an outside post make a big difference at one mile at Arlington?
If you're the best horse probably not. Don't know where she stands in this field...best horse is my guess!!

Unstable 07-06-2007 03:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
does an outside post make a big difference at one mile at Arlington?
The 10 post wins at a 20% rate this meet. Good for Sumwon!

Danzig 07-06-2007 03:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
The 10 post wins at a 20% rate this meet. Good for Sumwon!
how about the 9, since it looks like one horse will scratch.

Unstable 07-06-2007 03:09 PM
The early Graded Entries on DRF.com has Sumwon as the 7/2 favorite.

TheSpyder 07-06-2007 03:12 PM
Sweet!

Unstable 07-06-2007 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
how about the 9, since it looks like one horse will scratch.
The 9 post has a 12% win rate (so pray for no scratch).

SniperSB23 07-06-2007 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
The 9 post has a 12% win rate (so pray for no scratch).
Friday entries for a Wednesday race and one jockey on two horses. I'm thinking two scratches is a lot more likely than none. How has the 8 post done?

Unstable 07-06-2007 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
The early Graded Entries on DRF.com has Sumwon as the 7/2 favorite.
This has been known to change... once when Sumwon ran... so we may get better odds.

Unstable 07-06-2007 03:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Friday entries for a Wednesday race and one jockey on two horses. I'm thinking two scratches is a lot more likely than none. How has the 8 post done?
That goes down to 8%. Hey, if 6 horses scratch, it goes back up to 18%.:D

SniperSB23 07-06-2007 03:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
That goes down to 8%. Hey, if 6 horses scratch, it goes back up to 18%.:D
Weird that it is only 8% from the 8 post. Shows how statistically insignificant those numbers usually are. Once they see the fan club Sumwon is bringing we might just get those six scratches.

Sightseek 07-06-2007 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
The early Graded Entries on DRF.com has Sumwon as the 7/2 favorite.
7/2 and about 60 Dee-Tee'ers strong! :cool:

SniperSB23 07-06-2007 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
7/2 and about 60 Dee-Tee'ers strong! :cool:
They better have the rail out in the winner's circle!

BillW 07-06-2007 03:32 PM
Note the "outside" post :)

in field sizes 1 thru 10 on poly @ 1 mile:

Code:
151 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post  Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI    Avg Odds  IV  PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    151      26      17.22    $0.85      4.0  1.16  0.87
    1-3    453      77      17.00    $1.03      5.1  1.15  1.12
    4-6    422      57      13.51    $0.61      3.5  0.91  0.78
    7-9    150      16      10.67    $0.64      5.1  0.72  1.12
  10&up      8        3      37.50    $2.30      6.5  2.53  1.43
 Outside    151      30      19.87    $1.18      5.1  1.34  1.12
Field size up to 9:

Code:
143 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post  Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI    Avg Odds  IV  PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    143      26      18.18    $0.90      4.0  1.21  0.87
    1-3    429      74      17.25    $1.06      5.1  1.15  1.13
    4-6    398      55      13.82    $0.63      3.6  0.92  0.78
    7-9    126      14      11.11    $0.71      5.4  0.74  1.19
  10&up      0        0      0.00    $0.00      0.0  0.00  0.00
 Outside    143      27      18.88    $1.12      4.9  1.26  1.08
and field size up to 8:

Code:
127 Total races processed

 Post Bias Report

  Post  Starters  Winners    Pct.      ROI    Avg Odds  IV  PIV
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Inside    127      23      18.11    $0.91      4.0  1.15  0.94
    1-3    381      66      17.32    $1.00      4.8  1.10  1.11
    4-6    350      52      14.86    $0.68      3.6  0.95  0.84
    7-9    78        9      11.54    $0.69      5.0  0.74  1.15
  10&up      0        0      0.00    $0.00      0.0  0.00  0.00
 Outside    127      25      19.69    $1.11      4.7  1.25  1.08
Looks like it's not insurmountable ;)

AeWingnut 07-06-2007 03:33 PM
She'll be 1/9 when they first flash the odds. then maybe go up to 3/5
I know she has a big following but come on

ArlJim78 07-06-2007 03:38 PM
don't pay much attention to those pp percentages, they don't mean much.

the outside is not a bad draw at all for a mile. much better than down inside.
Because there is no horse to her outside it increases the chances of getting away clean, more room to manuever. with this draw she will get to run her race.

Scav 07-06-2007 04:02 PM
That is a great post for her people. She will dictate the race. I also expect her to move one slot down when Schrerer scratchs one of his horses. I smell a $200 straight pick three in Scav's Future. Race 7-8-9

Scav 07-06-2007 04:06 PM
And I'll tell you this, I haven't seen a race like the 7th at Arlington on a Wednesday, since I have been alive. Loaded with G3 runners.

2 Dollar Bill 07-06-2007 04:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unstable
The early Graded Entries on DRF.com has Sumwon as the 7/2 favorite.
7/2 ?? wait till the partners hit that win pool !!

Scav 07-06-2007 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2 Dollar Bill
7/2 ?? wait till the partners hit that win pool !!
She should be 4/5 in this field, but Pletcher/Douglas takes a whole lot of money here, lets hope she stays in the race

Riot 07-06-2007 06:34 PM
Okay, I'm not going to be able to handle this horse ownership thing, it's 5 days before her race, and I'm already too excited about it :D

hoovesupsideyourhead 07-06-2007 07:20 PM
the pick 4 looks to be worthwile with the single of someone and only going 2 wide in the 7th 3/7

Sightseek 07-06-2007 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot
Okay, I'm not going to be able to handle this horse ownership thing, it's 5 days before her race, and I'm already too excited about it :D
Me too!!

onebadbeast 07-06-2007 11:13 PM
Here Comes One Of My Patented Tri Plays-- 10,9/10,9/8,7/8,7!!!

AeWingnut 07-07-2007 07:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
She should be 4/5 in this field, but Pletcher/Douglas takes a whole lot of money here, lets hope she stays in the race
Why does Sumwon keep running into stake horses that need a race.

All the horses in the Keeneland race. Girls Pearls in the $50k Claimer and
Le Chateau and Humble Janet in the last and now Gazzella. So thye paid $140k for the horse.

btw.. SUMWONLOVESYOU is #9 in the field of 10 there is an entry. Here's the latest


2 POWDER RIVER............. 15/1... MOJICA, JR. R... 119... POULOS D... L
3 MISS PEACHTREE............ 9/2... GRAHAM J... 119... THORNBURY J D... L
1 QUEEN OF THE RIDGE...... 6/1... CASTANON J L... 115... SCHERER M R... L BOFF
4 LADY ELOQUENCE......... 10/1... LANTZ J A... 119... ROBERTSON M... L
1A CLASSIC TIARA............. 6/1... CASTANON J L... 117... SCHERER M R... L
5 PURE CLASSY................. 6/1... EMIGH C A... 115... ASMUSSEN S M... L
6 GREEN DOOR.................. 5/1... RAZO, JR. E... 115... MAKER R... L
7 BID ON A DANCER.......... 30/1... FIRES E... 119... SALVINO R J...
8 GAZZELLA...................... 3/1... DOUGLAS R R... 115... PLETCHER T A... L
9 SUMWONLOVESYOU........ 4/1... MARTINEZ W... 115... SIMON C... L

pmacdaddy 07-07-2007 08:43 AM
I got 'em.

Shoot me a PM with your e-mail and I will forward.

dellinger63 07-07-2007 09:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AeWingnut
Why does Sumwon keep running into stake horses that need a race.

All the horses in the Keeneland race. Girls Pearls in the $50k Claimer and
Le Chateau and Humble Janet in the last and now Gazzella. So thye paid $140k for the horse.

btw.. SUMWONLOVESYOU is #9 in the field of 10 there is an entry. Here's the latest


2 POWDER RIVER............. 15/1... MOJICA, JR. R... 119... POULOS D... L
3 MISS PEACHTREE............ 9/2... GRAHAM J... 119... THORNBURY J D... L
1 QUEEN OF THE RIDGE...... 6/1... CASTANON J L... 115... SCHERER M R... L BOFF
4 LADY ELOQUENCE......... 10/1... LANTZ J A... 119... ROBERTSON M... L
1A CLASSIC TIARA............. 6/1... CASTANON J L... 117... SCHERER M R... L
5 PURE CLASSY................. 6/1... EMIGH C A... 115... ASMUSSEN S M... L
6 GREEN DOOR.................. 5/1... RAZO, JR. E... 115... MAKER R... L
7 BID ON A DANCER.......... 30/1... FIRES E... 119... SALVINO R J...
8 GAZZELLA...................... 3/1... DOUGLAS R R... 115... PLETCHER T A... L
9 SUMWONLOVESYOU........ 4/1... MARTINEZ W... 115... SIMON C... L

Gazzella shouldn't be feared. She took 3 times to break her maiden and then ran in an optional claimer. Her last three beyers are 70-74-59 and Sumwon's are 83-77-37. The one that scares me a little is Rebecca's Danzig filly. We should be just fine and have a great shot at getting a winner's circle photo. IMO

Scav 07-07-2007 10:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AeWingnut
Why does Sumwon keep running into stake horses that need a race.

All the horses in the Keeneland race. Girls Pearls in the $50k Claimer and
Le Chateau and Humble Janet in the last and now Gazzella. So thye paid $140k for the horse.

btw.. SUMWONLOVESYOU is #9 in the field of 10 there is an entry. Here's the latest


2 POWDER RIVER............. 15/1... MOJICA, JR. R... 119... POULOS D... L
3 MISS PEACHTREE............ 9/2... GRAHAM J... 119... THORNBURY J D... L
1 QUEEN OF THE RIDGE...... 6/1... CASTANON J L... 115... SCHERER M R... L BOFF
4 LADY ELOQUENCE......... 10/1... LANTZ J A... 119... ROBERTSON M... L
1A CLASSIC TIARA............. 6/1... CASTANON J L... 117... SCHERER M R... L
5 PURE CLASSY................. 6/1... EMIGH C A... 115... ASMUSSEN S M... L
6 GREEN DOOR.................. 5/1... RAZO, JR. E... 115... MAKER R... L
7 BID ON A DANCER.......... 30/1... FIRES E... 119... SALVINO R J...
8 GAZZELLA...................... 3/1... DOUGLAS R R... 115... PLETCHER T A... L
9 SUMWONLOVESYOU........ 4/1... MARTINEZ W... 115... SIMON C... L
Just becuase they paid 140k for a horse doesn't mean the horse is a stakes horse. They paid 16 million for The Green Gorilla and he will never see a race.

Everyone brush their teeth on Wednesday, get those whites ready to shine

AeWingnut 07-07-2007 11:14 AM
I worried about 1A Classic Tiara now that I look at the pace scenerio

hopefully she'll be the one to scratch


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