Belmont Horse that scares me...
 

OK, so the horses who have scared me in the last two tc races have won the race so here is the horse that scares me now....

Jazil.

I don't know what to make of this horse. Is he good or did he get lucky in the derby? hmmmmm....

I am leaning more towards him than Steppy at this point, but I haven't made up my mind yet. Jazil seems to be bred a bit better for this distance than Steppenwolfer, although I think Steppy is a more consistent closer. I will have Bob and John on my tickets for the same reason. :D

I definately don't think he got lucky in the Derby....watch the replay of The Wood....they can say what they want about the field limping home, but he was moving....I think he and steppenwolfer run 1 and 2....cajun...why Bob and John?

Both he and Jazil are bred almost identically. Both are by Seeking the Gold and both are out of Deputy Minister mares. Although their running style is different, I think they are both bred to go the distance.

Cajun,

I think we should do an ex box with B&J and Jazil. Put Bigdog's horse in for the tri.

i would not be surprised at all to see Jazil win this race,
both he and steppenwolfer should do well here.
they exhibited their ability to trot around for 9f earlier and seem to be able to trot for 12 seconds without end, whereas most start to slow by the 10th furlong. Jazil, imo, could win this,
he has the second on the surface in the wood, and Banjo has a win on the surface in the slop. granted his closing quarter in the wood was slow, but the track was garbage that day.

Not a bad idea actually... :)

I'm not sure if Landson has decided to enter "That's a Given" though. Where is all the hype coming for Deputy Glitters? His dosage profile sucks for the Belmont. Has he been working really well? :confused:

The impression I got from the Wood was that B&J was a grinder and just kept running. I think he will do well on the long stretch. B&J, Jazil or Steppy EX? Maybe just box all thre:cool: e.

I hear ya, but I can't see B&J getting 12f, not with his pp's. Right now I think this will end up being a two horse race....but that opinion will probably change 10x between now and post time....anxious to see what kind of m/l they set for Jazil and Steppenwolfer.

I wonder why Baffert is entering Bob and John and NOT Point Determined... :confused:

High Finance should worry a bunch of people. Could run away with this race.

Do you think he can handle a mile and a quarter?

no, or a mile and a half....:p

good question.....haven't heard of any injuries....

Oops. DOH! :p

I think he can go 12F with no problem based on his last two performances. I am not a big dosage guy and I guess neither was Conquistador Cielo who had a DI of 6.14. and had no problem in the belmont winning by 14.5 lengths only 5 days after winning the Met Mile.

A horse I could see get up for atleast Show is

Hemingway's Key

Def wont win but the horse looked pretty decent in closing in the Preakness, might be one to included in some bets

I'm talking more in the lines of dosage points and not so much the dosage index.

I had Hemingway's Key in my tri for the Preakness because of the way he was working. I'm not so certain of how he will do in the Belmont.

It is my understanding that Dosage Index (the ratio of speed to stamina) is really what dosage people use as a yardstick to determine a horses ability to go a certain distance (>4.0 being the number they throw around for the classic distance). I am not a dosage expert or believer though so perhaps you are talking about something else. The points are just an accumulation of that spectrum from brilliant to professional. Also, not sure who dosage works because it completely ignores young sires.

Talk is Money's (HF's Sire) Blazing Sunset just won at 9F in the Alydar so I don't think distance is a problem on top and Margay is out of CC so I don't see how anyone can question his ability to go 12F, especially based on his last two races where he won for fun. He was confirmed for the Belmont too, now I just hope nobody likes him.

I'm looking at the dosage points. Horses are rated in points across five different categories. For example, this is High Finance:

Profile 6-0-4-0-0

The middle category is the one that is looked at as to whether or not the horse can get the classic distance. The higher the number in the middle category (which is a 4 in High Finance's case), the better because that middle number should be stronger or at least equal to the remaining five categories. It's also not a good thing (according to people who use this method) to have more than two zeros if the horse is trying to go a classic distance. I am by no means an expert on this, but from what I have learned regarding the Belmont, pedigree plays a huge role (more so than the derby.)

Everyone appears to be forgetting BGCAT.I thinks the reason Pletcher didnt have him in the Preakness was to get his best shot at barbaro in the Belmont with the extra rest. Pletcher recognized Barbaros ability and was hoping to find him more vulnerable in the belmont . Bluegrass Cat looks the best. Jazil will do like always, make his late run and look like he needs a little more ground even at 1 1/2. Look at the new shooters and those that have a win on the track should be closely looked at{does this sound like any horse that has been discused here}.

I didn't forget Bluegrass Cat... just not sure where I would put him at this point. His profile looks nice, but I think he'll be the favorite.

José, the maintenance guy at my job, likes Sunriver, though he's waiting to see them in the paddock before making his final decision.

(Yeah, okay, but he hit the Derby exacta and was high on Bernardini before the Preakness!)

steppenwolfers been a consistent horse this year but he just hasnt shown hes top quality. had every chance to run down lawyer last time they met@oaklawn and couldnt get it done and was very erratic down the lane that day, just dont think the horse is G1 quality

I dont know about Jazil or Steppewolfer in the Belmont. Deep closer typically do not fare well in the Belmont. I think the best bet would be to do all with all with Sunriver, Bluegrass Cat and Jazil. I don't think Steppenwolfer will even play a factor. I really like Deputy Glitters in this spot. Regardless who you like, it is going to be a great betting race.

Will Someone Please Please Please!!!!! Next Time I Say A Friggen Horse Scares Me In A Race, Will You Please Make Me Bet The Horse?



Thank You!:)

LMAO! Next time I want to use Jazil instead of Steppenwolfer to begin with, someone please convince me to go with my gut instinct. :eek: I wonder where all of the High Finance lovers are? That horse was burnt out just as I expected. I really think that "Oh So Awesome" would have finished better had he not broken so poorly from the gate. Oh well... life goes on. :o