Street Sense Derby Beyer: 110
 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...050601117.html

[b]'Street' Gains Cred In Perfect Derby Run

By Andrew Beyer
Monday, May 7, 2007; E01

When the Roman philosopher Seneca made his famous observation, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity," he might have been anticipating the 2007 Kentucky Derby.... USE LINK TO READ

Thanks and good read.

"Not only is the rail the shortest way around the track, but the inside part of the Churchill Downs track seemed to be advantageous Saturday -- just as it had when Street Sense won the Breeders' Cup there. After his ground-saving run, Borel angled past one tiring horse, took aim at Hard Spun, and beat him decisively."

Not sure what races Beyer was watching .

Race 1 - Ginger Punch raced 3-4 wide and won
Race 2 - Little Nick split horses to win but he wasnt on the rail
Race 3 - Indian Passage I guess was on the rail
Race 4 - Northern Duke won near the rail but the 12 closed to lose by a neck going 7-8 wide
Race 5 - Saint Addan won and he wasnt on the rail
Race 6 - Turf
Race 7 - Silverinyourpocket won on the rail but Suaveness closed on the outside to lose by a 1/2 length
Race 8 - Hysterical Lady won and wasnt on the rail
Race 9 - Turf
Race 10 - SS won on the rail.

So 8 races and 3 horses won while on the rail. In two of those races the horse that was 7-8 wide closed ground to lose by a neck and 1/2 length. I wouldnt say the rail was adventageous on Saturday like it was on BC day.

I agree with Beyer all-around....

Street Sense figures to get another excellent pace setup once again in the Preakness, but I've watched films of all his races, and I have some doubts regarding how effective he will be if he has to circle horses.

I think he's got a few bad habits and has a little hang in him late, and one of these days, when he catches a real slow paced race, and can't skate inside, he's going to look awfully ordinary on that day.

Could it be the best horse was on the rail.Im sure no one expected SS to be on the rail .It was there for any of the 17 or 18 that were ahead of him. Somr times I wonder why we have photos to determine the winner. It makes no differance who actually wins. We need the "EXPERTS" to anaylize the race to tell who the real winner is.

Beyer picked Street Sense.....it's not like he bet Hard Spun and it's sour grapes.

The other thing is that you have to figure that CB is going to try that rail move at some point and get shut down.
But of course....the most logical place for that to happen would have been in a 20-horse field.....so who knows?
In the Preakness FFC is going to be backing up in a hurry so CB better hope he isn't coming back down the rail.

and he always re-switches leads late down the stretch. he's did it in the BC, Blue Grass and Derby. It's a bit unsettling.

It is really odd that all of his fast decisive wins have come when shooting thru the rail. He has yet to have shown an effective power move circling around horses into the stretch.

When he has tried to go outside you are right, he looked more ordinary.
I'm not trying to be nitpicky, I like the horse and all. Its just odd

I picked Street Sense to win, but that was the most gifted trip I've ever seen in all the Derby's I've watched (which isn't as many as most of you, but still).
However, not every horse would have had the acceleration to move through the rail that quick. Borel's patience and timing were amazing.

Still, if the 19 other idiot jockey's didn't see it coming last Saturday, you better believe they'll force Street Sense wide and circle horses in the Preakness.

With a horse that ducks around as much as he does, one would think blinkers might do a world of good.

I agree he has some bad habits. Ducking in, switching leads back and forth down the stretch will someday cost him a race. But with love for the rail it seems real possible that he may never have to go around horses.

the rail was gold saturday, watch the races and fractions all day and how middle closers did in general, either the entire card was a bunch of hangers or it was the rail.....street sense wins regardless, but hard spun was carried by the rail

Both horses raced on the inside pretty much throughout---but Hard Spun earned the right to have the rail position by setting strong fractions to get it.

Street Sense--a deep closer---only had his rail position and got to pass 16 horses without leaving it because of misjudgements by other riders (Zanjero mainly) and because of a fearless and historically great ride by Borel.

If Hard Spun was carried by the rail...so was Sedgefield....and to a much greater extent Street Sense---because unlike HS and Sedge, Street Sense got the favorable pace to go with the rail position.

Was the pace favorable to SS? THey went 1:11+ for 3/4 which is good for front runners. The early pace was fast, not brutally fast. Do you see this differently?

Also I thought SS passed 18 other runners?

he went around the final two he passed...and lugged back into the rail.

Yes, the pace was certainly more favorable to SS than HS---but, it's the Derby, and the pace is very often too fast. The nature of the race.

The pace was way fast enough to knock most of the horses out of the race in the stretch. It was a fearless run and ride. It's gonna take a lot of horse to beat SS the next two.

Tell me something...What pace do you think would have been favorable to front runners? 1:12? 1:13??

They hit the 3/4 in 1.11+ Isnt this ideal for front runners????????

They went 46 1/5 to the half. That is NOT favorable to frontrunners at a mile and a quarter.

The rest of the pace was beaten 37, 45, and 52 lengths. 'Nuff said.

A non sequiter. What does SS ride have to do with the pace?? The fact that the pace was moderate means that SS did quite well to win this coming from behind.

So yes, its gonna take a lot of horse to beat SS. And this is MAKING MY POINT!

DrugS--I thought Sedgefield was a real surprise, since, while not nearly as impressively as HS, he was basically the "next horse" anywhere near the front that managed to stick around at the end. I don't know if the Preakness is the best move for him--I think if they pick their spots, he could be a nice horse. Coming back in 2 weeks against the top three, plus the new shooters, doesn't seem like a formula for success, however.

I mentioned the early pace was fast in my original post; should have referenced that to the 1/2 mile time. But it was not brutal, such as 45+ would be. And that is why I asked him if he looked at pace differently that I.

Is the 1/2 mile time more important than the 3/4? Or vice versa? Or they both are? How do you look at this? That is why I asked it the way I did. Still not getting much of a response on this.

I agree. Believe Hard Spun might take a backward step after strong work Derby week and hard run in race itself. FFC will also make the pace lively in Preakness. SS will be tough to down and from a wagering standpoint while Chelokee intrigues me I feel he will be seriously overbet due to being a new face and the semi-tough trip in Florida derby.

I liked NBLS and see no excuse for his Derby run as if he had any horse he could have kept SS pinned down during his run near quarter pole. Is Tagg bringing him back for the Belimont? Likes the track and maybe pace scenario we usually get in Belmont will help him be a threat to SS

That was not a moderate pace by any means. Comparing fractions from year to year is futile, as the track can be vastly different. Sure, the Derby is usually run at a faster clip, but the horses in front usually finish way, way, way behind.

What was War Emblem's pace? That should give you an idea of the type pace needed to win up front.

Both are obviously important, but it always seems like the no-hope frontrunners burn up after 4F (the most recent examples being Songandaprayer, Brancusi, and Keyed Entry.) It's more important to see what the other horses around him did than the ACTUAL time, b/c the track obviously differs from year to year. He was the only frontrunner still breathing at the end, and the other 3 in the top 4 came from wayyyyyyyy back.

:47 and change or something if I recall?

His beyers at Churchill are just much faster than anywhere else. May just be a Churchill loving horse. If he can run a big number elsewhere I will be a believer, but he has never done it. His 108 and a 110 were both at Churchill, where he appears to be a different horse.

46 and 1 is a moderate pace in 1.25 mile race NOT run on the old asphalt tracks of SoCal? You're kidding, right?

47+, if memory serves. I think so, because I recall the Preakness went notably faster in like 45+. I think his derby 3/4 was 1.11 but just guessing. Its an easy look up obviously.

Only one front runner has won w/ a sub 1.10 that is Spend a Buck. There are a few that have won with 1.10+. From my recollection 1.11+ is just about ideal for a front runner.

If this pace was so torrid why did HS finish well? He finished up in 25.4 which is fairly strong for a front runner.

Part my thinking is that DrugS is right about one thing: This is a poor class. I mean, most of them died after going a mile under a pace that was fast-then moderate. Cowtown, Teuf, Liquidity....These horses obviously are not meant for 10f. So I think he's right about the overall crop in general.

Because he's a good horse that's built to go the distance.

If you broke down the fractions of all of the preps, he was the ONLY horse to run a :23 opening quarter AND get the final 3F in less than :38.

War Emblem: 47 flat & 1:11 & 3

Here's war emblems fractions:

23.25, 47.04, 1:11.75, 1:36.70, 2:01.13 [note: unofficial; a cut from the internet]

Hard Spun got the mile in what 1.37 flat? So you can see he's 2 length back of War Emblem here (assuming same surface, trip).

But the difference? War Emblem can flat out close under this pace. WE finished in 24.4 vs HS 25.4. I.e. WE can run as fast as SS from the front end of a moderate pace.

You can argue that this surface was different etc. ANd I wont dispute that you can. We all can till we're blue in the face. But one thing I think can be said, clearly a 1.11.75 pace was just fine for WE; no matter what you think of his fractions, he finished in 24.4 which is obviously extremely good for a front runner.

Therefore, undeniably a 1.11.75 pace was fine for War Emblem.

RIght so the questions remains, and may remain unresolvable:

a) Was the pace moderate and the rest of the front runners quite bad; OR

b) THe pace was hot, and HS was a superior horse to survive.

Right? Are those the two choices?

My armchair analysis, having never been around horses and seeing this stuff on tv and crunching numbers like a nerd is.....A.

But Im interested in what YOU think.:eek:

Good analysis. I'd be lying if I said I have any idea how the track was playing Derby Day '02. I think you're understimating the difference between going 46 1/5 and 47 flat in a mile and a quarter race, however.

I vote B. That being said... Street Sense over Hard Spun had been my exacta for 6 weeks, so I was quite happy with the results. :)

he rode the rail the WHOLE way, I hate him next time he runs

the pace was quick early and then slowed down, pretty typical of the senario for a closer to win, hard spun ran very well, i think he is a pretty good horse. I dont think however that on the square he will beat street sense.

Well, as my comments indicate, I wouldn't use him either. I don't think, however, that the rail was as almighty as you suggest, turning a turdball into a horse that bested many much more highly touted horses. Curlin, unlike most, managed to finish well ahead of Sedgefield, and without the gift of The Great Rail--but he's likely a superiour animal. My point was that Sedgefield might be a nice horse--but not of the quality of the top three, and would likely be better off dodging them and the new shooters in 2 weeks.