Ravel, How good is he ?
 

I am looking through his pp's and watching replays of his races and im wondering is this guy as good as everyone says ? I have him in my derby top 5 and it seems like everyone else does to, but is that all based on potential ? He has only raced 3 times, when he broke his maiden he was definitly impressive, but he beat no one at all, not one horse has come out of his maiden race to do anything. Then he wins the Sham, he gets a perfect trip, as good a trip as you can get and he wins, but he just barley beats liquidity, who came back and did nothing at fair grounds, actually you can say be ran terrible. The only horse to come out of the Sham and run big was Song of Navarone, who won The Winstar Derby, which lets be honest is not the hardest of spots, and the morning line favorite was scratched. Dont get me wrong i like Ravel and i love the pedigree, but im thinking that the Sham could turn out to be a negative key race, and he could turn out to be a beaten favorite in The Santa Anita Derby, does anyone agree ?

How are you going to keep your head from exploding before the first saturday in may?

paceless slowly run race. Looked better than it was. i dont like him one bit and will be first to admit Liquidity was one of my derby horses, but beating him at this point is not much. I think he is highly overrated in my opinion

I dont know, lol. Its not even that i dont like this horse, because i really do but the facts say, he hasent beat much and has been perfectly placed doing it, and a horse he barley beats returns to run horrible, so i really dont know what to think of this guy.

that is kinda what im thinking, but i guess i want to wait to the Santa Anita Derby to see what he does against a large field of other talented horses

Good idea. Some nice horses pointing to SA. But again it could be a small field. Pace should be better though due to possible presence of King of the Roxy

He's way overhyped. Just look at who was third in his last race. Maybe he improves, but right now he's nowhere, and everyone I know out West feels the same way...for whatever that's worth.

Might still be able to win SA Derby if some dont show. Cobalt shipping to Illinois I heard and KOTR I dont believe will get 1 1/8. Liquidity or Air Commander possibly but even if Ravel wins, great bet against on Derby Day

Originally I was pretty positive, right after the Sham. However, upon further reflection, and in light of what other horses are doing that came out of that race, I have downgraded my original assessment. Like others I'm not sure it was such a strong race after all. I still liked the way the horse ran, and he is eligible to improve so he's one to watch for sure.

It's a relatively new race and winners of the Sham don't have a great record in the Derby thus far. Check it out:
2006 - Bob and John (last year as listed race)
2005 - Going Wild
2004 - Master David
2003 - Man Among Men
2002 - U S S Tinosa
2001 - Wild and Wise (restricted to nonSWs) first running

LOL, understatement of the year. Also rans everywhere on there.

i bet bob and john in the derby last year and in the belmont, rat horse....

is he retired ?

Ravel has not trained since 3/11. I am told that he's a light type that doesn't stand alot of training or racing very well. He may be good but he's pretty fragile.
The Sham was a restricted race until the last couple of years. Its a hard race to judge from. Seeing how badly Liquidity ran back, I'm not thrilled with Ravel.

See how good Master David is now

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...&RACE=8&BorP=B

That was some performance by Master David the other evening at Delta Downs. I certainly hope they don't race him anymore.

It wont take much to win the Santa Anita Derby this year. The race doesn't seem to have alot of good horses going stay for it.

Pretty damn competitive, I hope they didn't buy him for much :rolleyes:

Pletcher should point AGS there to get some graded earnings. will be much easier than the Blue Grass

HEY! I actually like that horse. :p

I can't say...but more than he is worth.

God, that's freaking disgraceful. :(

I only saw him on TV but he looked a little sore to me.

yea but he looked great in the paddock. only when he was cantering down the stretch could you really see the soreness. especially compared to his 2yo sale workout

I thought for certain that you'd felt his legs before, Andy! Stop slacking!

I hadn't seen his sale video....that was part of the problem.

they are archived on the sale company's website...another tool for your trip handicapping...

Yeah, and I put most of them in my RTTR stable. Now a Sham THIRD has won the Kentucky Derby (Giacomo) and a Sham SECOND finished second (Empire Maker), but winners haven't done much. Maybe it is just the wrong distance at the wrong time.

Are you sure Empire Maker ran in the Sham?

Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Inc.
Breeder: Juddmonte Farms
State Bred: KY
Winnings: 8 Starts: 4 - 3 - 1, $1,985,800

2002: 2nd Remsen S.-G2.
2003: 1st Belmont S.-G1, Wood Memorial S.-G1, Florida Derby-G1
2nd Kentucky Derby-G1, Jim Dandy S.-G2, Sham S.

Entered stud in 2004.
Stands at Juddmonte Farms in Lexington, KY.

yes. how dare you handicap a race without feeling all the horses legs (twice) and watching their juiced up sale work. then you must discuss what you learned with the big shots you hang out with.

Thanks. I really didn't remember that, who beat him?

Man Among Men

How could I forget that one??

I only remembered because someone else already posted it earlier. LOL

I think that horse had like 3 or 4 wins.

Named, of course, for Morte'.

I got roasted on the other forum for saying he did nothing to impress me. He does have room to improve, as do all young horses, but what I saw from him didn't impress me one bit. Yet, the people were going crazy over him. I don't see it. Sniper was suggesting that the connections wouldn't run Rags to Riches in the SA Derby because they already have Ravel for that race. I think that's stupid. If they really want to win the race, why wouldn't they take their best shot? Their best shot is not Ravel.

It would be a disaster for them in many ways if Ravel finished second to Rags to Riches, and even if that chance is slight, the risk cannot be worth the negative rewards.

As I explained over there getting a G1 on Ravel's stallion resume is worth way more to them than having the best chance of winning the race. If Ravel ran second to Rags in the SA Derby they would have made a huge mistake in terms of his stallion resume which is all Coolmore cares about. I don't particularly like Ravel either, I just thought the idea that he was going to have to step up to beat Rags because he was only a G3 winner and she was a G1 winner was ridiculous. I think she would have to improve to have a shot in the SA Derby which she is surely capable of but is far from a given.

That much I agree with. What I was thinking was that they ship Ravel somewhere else and take a shot at that race with their best horse.

But where? The preps are pretty loaded right now. Wood, FL Derby, Bluegrass...