Any Given Saturday
 

I really like this horse, but even a tough-luck 3rd in a likely full-gate at the Bluegrass might not get him into the Kentucky Derby based on graded earnings. He's at about $102,000 now I believe. IMO Johnny V. got too cute on him at Tampa Saturday looking over his shoulder about nine times instead of just letting him go and making Street Sense play catch up. That probably cost him the W in that race and could conceivably lose him a spot in the big dance as well.

He isn't good enough.He is good,but there is no doubt in my mind that he is not good enough.People are gunna look for excuses for him,but he has twice lost a fair fight.........2nd-3rd-4th-5th.....Got a little Arabian Head, too.

Any Given Saturday has a loss by a head to the champion 2YO and a half-length loss to Tiz Wonderful, one of the most highly regarded 2YOs around. How is he not good enough? What makes you think that? I'd love to hear it.

The horse still undoubtedly has to get over the hump, but I can't believe that right now he is just simply not good enough.

NT

i totally agree with him, i talked up street sense for weeks before this past saturday and alot of ppl were saying any given saturday would beat him, well he had every chance to beat him and alot more going for him, and he still did not beat him, scuds is correct he's just not good enough, he is a second tier horse i feel very strongly about that, and i felt that way before the tampa bay derby

With Street Sense, Great Hunter, Ketchikan, Belgravia, and Twilight Meteor all running there among others it would seem to be a very tough spot to expect to do better than 3rd. Even 2nd wouldn't guarantee him of getting in. They should alter plans and go to the Arkansas Derby instead where the competition will be easier and a second place finish will get him the graded earnings for sure.

How is he second tier by losing to the top of his class by a head bob?

The competition ain't gunna get easier.He is a known quantity(good,but not good enough.)He is the same teaser that he was last year.Don't fall for it.He can't get it done.

he dosent win, thats how.

I agree. The reason the horse has been dumped by the previous posters probably has more to do with hammering him at the window, and not cashing.

That's the lament of a disgruntled horseplayer.

well i obviously did not hammer him, i spoke all week of hammering street sense, which i did not do i backed off, but i would have never bet any given saturday, so why are you implying that towards ?

I agree.

He's a little feller.

I don't hammer anything at the window.........Horse had 1st run.....Couldn't draw off........Ain't good enough to do it,but he is a good horse.

Do you honestly think the horse had any clue whether or not he won the photo? One foot later and his head bobbed in front. The horse had no clue whether or not he won. He is also 3 for 5 which makes your "he doesn't win" comment completely ridiculous.

Because, common sense tells me that when two horses gut it out the last yards of a damn horse race as in the likes of this particular heat, one doesn't bail because the other lost the contest by a damn head bob.

So therefore, I'm going to relegate him to second tier.

...no, I don't think so.

Steve saw him in person and thinks he's just fine.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10987

Saying AGS is second tier because he barely lost twice to great horses makes no sense. . . He BARELY lost to Street Sense and probably ran a few extra lengths than him and he also barely lost to Tiz Wonderful who would be a top derby prospect if he was healthy. . . This horse loves the poly and I would not be suprised if he wins the Bluegrass. . . He'll also love the mile and a quarter in the derby if he gets in

Velazquez didn't even start riding the horse until Street Sense was already up the rail and in front. He did not have first run. Street Sense had first run.

I think these premature observations are just that, premature. Somebody even said AGS had every chance to beat Street Sense. The latter got a significantly better trip.

We're talking about this horse being a 2nd tier horse in March when you guys are talking in various threads about Notional, Liquidity, Belgravia, Nobiz and a host of others as first tier horses. That's a little off base in my opinion and again it's just my opinion.

NT

well any given saturday had everything going for him, race over the track, dead fit, connections that are on fire, everything going for him and still did not beat street sense, who's trainer said this is a prep if he runs a good closing second we'd be happy

out of the 4 horses you named i only think nobiz is first tier, the other 3 are sleepers, or price horses that could run big in my opinion

Wouldn't surprise me if he barely loses anything.Will surprise me if he wins the Derby.Won't surprise me if he fights hard in the Derby,and loses by a little bit.HE ISN'T GOOD ENOUGH.

What has Liquidity done that warrants ANY consideration for the derby?

Let me get this straight, Any Given Saturday lost by about six inches on Saturday to the current favorite for the Derby and he now " isn't good enough "? That kind of logic allowed Easy Goer to be 8:5 to Sunday Silence's 2:5 in the Belmont Stakes after the head bob in the Preakness. Unless one horse had real trouble in a race, and both Any Given Saturday and Street Sense had perfect trips, decisions this close are pretty much ties as far as handicapping is concerned unless one horse has PROVEN to have a disinterest in winning.

Both of Any Given Saturday's losses have been very close decisions to the two horses that many considered the leaders of this crop. How he isn't a MAJOR contender at this point is beyond me. I would bet money that Todd Pletcher considers him his best Derby horse.

A second in both the Hollywood Futurity (G1) and the Sham (G3.)

IMO, the talent is definitely there, but the jury is out on whether or not he can run outside of Cali.

Your last line is exactly what hit me after watching the race, that most of America would probably bet Scat Daddy, Ravel, and Circular Quay before Any Given Saturday and in my mind he is clearly the best of Pletcher's bunch.

NT

He beat the winner of the Win Star Derby?

He lost by a head bob while running significantly wider. How did he have everything going for him? Using the trainer's pre-race excuse in case his horse got beat is an absolutely silly justification that Street Sense wasn't fit. It was the first race off the layoff so was the best chance for AGS to beat him but SS got a much better trip which offset that. In the end there was virtually nothing separating the two. Street Sense and Any Given Saturday are the only two 3yos out there with two triple digit Beyers at this point. Only Nobiz Like Shobiz has a better 3rd best Beyer than AGS (by one point). To dismiss him off this race is borderline insane.

DITTO..Should have won this race.I don't see the improvement needed.He is a bit short of the best.Not much(but enough.)Amazing how the horse is dead honest (right in front of you,) and you think he is kid'n.He isn't kid'n...He is giving it all,and he is short of the best.

Call me insane,but I am dismissing him as far as winning the Derby goes.I won't be surprised if he runs a close 2nd,but he will not be 1st.Somebody will beat him.

LOL

I hope more people are thinking like you... it will drive up his odds on the first Saturday in May.

OK, well I can't call someone saying a horse might run a close 2nd in the Derby to be dismissing him. It will be a 20 horse field that hasn't even been drawn yet so suggesting a horse won't do better than a close 2nd is hardly putting your neck on the chopping block. You can't call a horse second tier that you think will be right there at the wire in the Stampede sponsored by Yum Brands.

I'm boxing all of Pletcher's horses. I have a feeling they'll run great on Derby day.

A ten horse box isn't going to be the cheapest way to go.

I have a feeling he wins the derby this year.

Should I throw out a few and include o'neill and assmoosen?

Gee, THAT is some prognostication:confused: considering that the Derby is a 15 -20 horse field

Been tested twice.Failed twice.Close ain't winning.All I can tell you is that what I saw Saturday was not new.I KNEW HE WAS GUNNA LEAVE IT SHORT.Same exact look he had in the race last year.Same look that Alydar kept showing(I can do this...let me try next time..I am almost there.....I'm close.) He isn't good enough............SUCKER HORSE...............IF ever there was a SUCKER horse,it is this one.

Pretty impressive that you're comparing him to Alydar at this point.

With that said, this is not a sucker horse, Scuds. This isn't Perfect Drift we're talking about here.

WTF are you talking about? If he was always losing to inferior horses you might have a point. Do you honestly think the horse knew that his nose was three inches short on Saturday. I think that the suckers were all the people that thought he was going to easily dispatch Street Sense. After the race I came away more impressed with AGS than I was before the race. I thought he was dead game. I thought once Street Sense started rolling he would open up by daylight.

Being so lightly raced, and running against the best of his generation its ridiculous to claim he leaves it short. Is every horse that finishes second twice a SUCKER horse? He's raced five times, won three times and second twice. His maiden win was by a nose so right from the beginning your idea that he always leaves it short is wrong. He has also won by open lengths as well.

he will not win the bluegrass, i dont even need to know whos coming, i read great hunter is coming to the bluegrass there is no way he beats him, and if street sense runs in the bluegrass then your talking 3rd at best