Curlin v. Cobalt Blue
 

Both of these 6 f winners stretched out and showed great promise in their wins. I think even though Curlin looked very impressive having a wider trip and winning by a larger margin, I will say Cobalt Blue looked more impressive even with an easier trip against what I think was a weaker field.

ONeill is a very wise man it appears. This horse looks like he already knows exactly what he is supposed to do. I think he responded very well to the riders instructions and he looks like he knows exactly where the finish line is. A very precocious showing imo. Very controlled. I would shoot for the Preakness but Merv clearly wants the big show, and Jeannie Jackle's body.

Well Curlin was actually stretching out from 7f, not 6f, but I still think his race was more impressive because:
1) It was only his second lifetime start.
2) He was facing slightly better competition.
3) It was just more visually impressive to me the way he rated and made that big move.

The only problem I have with Cobalt Blue is that his race yesterday reminded me very much of Brother Derek's runs leading to the Derby. I think he's a hugely talented horse, but I don't see how we can extrapolate anything from his performance yesterday. Not sure about the difference in the variants between the two days, because the 1 1/16 distance there hasn't been run a whole lot recently, but a stakes horse loping through fractions slower then 32K-28K claimers two days earlier doesn't set me on fire. He got it all his way the entire way, much like Brother Derek did all last Spring. We've seen how coasting on a soft lead in five horse fields leading up to the Derby helps a horse -- that is to say, not very much.

I think he's a good horse, don't get me wrong. But I just don't think yesterday told me anything at all about whether or not he can handle real racehorses in a normally run race.

I stand corrected 7f, but one turn.
And I can see how you would pick Curlin.
Just trying to start a bit of a discussion concerning these two wonderful showings by "sprinters" gone long.

I would definitely shoot Preakness with Curlin, if they want some TC at all.

I agree completely. To me Curlin showed much more yesterday, with a robust wide rally, looking rather professional for the most part.
I don't think we learned that much about Cobabt Blue, it does remind me of some of Brother Dereks wins last year. When you have comfortable pace and position all to yourself the effort gets flattered.

Difference is Brother Derek ran very hard out of the gate. Brother Derek used so much up. I think Cobalt Blue is controlable speed. Which he used zero of yesterday. I was impressed with how comfortable he ran. Brother Derek always looked like he was trying so hard, and he was. Very game animal. I have little idea of how game Cobalt Blue is.

I think that was more a product of no speed signed on in the race. I don't think he is like Brother Derek. He has shown some races where he closed and sat patiently....O'Neill has a shot this year with those 2. Great Hunter would be my top choice right now.

They both looked very impressive, I just have not made up my mind yet as to who should be at the top of my list.

So Randall and myself are the only ones that take Cobalt Blue.
Randall we agree on something besides teaching and its rigors.

Over Curlin, yes.

But I'll take Great Hunter over anyone else right now.

im not high on either of them, but if the hooked up today i think curlin beats him by open lenghts

i dont think cobalt blue was that impressive, he had EVERYTHING his own way just galloped around the track

Thats why I did find it impressive. Nonchalant stretchout. Very controlled.

i dont know, i cant see him being any factor in the santa anita derby unless its paceless

Cobalt Blue is not following in Brother Derek's footsteps evidently:


"Cobalt Blue likely will have one more prep race, and Griffin indicated a few days ago his colt would run in the Illinois Derby (gr. II) at Hawthorne Park on April 7."

Wisely connections are going for field experience and not making the mistake of beating up on 5 horses field for all their derby preps.

almar3t

I didn't mean to imply that he's a need-the-lead type because I saw his other races as well.

I was just saying that I think he's a nice colt, but I'm not using yesterday's performance to make any big predictions on him, because races like that have in the past, not held up when big fields full of stakes horses actually show up.

That's why he reminded me of Brother Derek, just that he got a slow lead against a less-then-stellar field and had it his own way the whole time.

Blue will run his race and has no fear of running on the lead and if no one presses and he get an easy lead he looks like he is the type that can steal a race if they leave him alone on the lead without pressing. He is not cheap speed. He is the kind of colt that will make the race a honest race with the best horse winning.

I also applaud this move. And I think the next move would be to skip the K. Derby.
But here is where Merv showtime comes in. If Cobalt Blue faces a full decent, but not stellar field in the Illinois, because others like Stormello, Ravel, Liquidity (I still fear this one) will run in the Santa Anita, and the Wood will take some Eastern horses along with the Florida Derby the week before, and Cobalt wins the Illinois... then Merv is going to the Derby.

I would go to the Preakness.

Both 1 1/16 miles:

Curlin 1:44.76
Cobalt Blue 1:42.6

I know Santa Anita is faster than Oaklawn, I have not compared similar races on the same tracks. But damn over 2 seconds, very diff. tracks.

What speed fig did Cobalt Blue run? Sorry if this is posted in another thread and I'm not seeing it. . .

Add me to this list.

Ark runs much slower than SA. You can't compare them like that.

I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.

I know this as I stated. But over 2 seconds Randall? I did not realize the tracks were that different.

Agree. Above posts are right that Cobalt needs to be tested and going to Illinois gives him a full field but wont SA Derby be a bit more competitive also? LIquidity, Ravel, King of the Roxy, Air COmmander? Maybe not full field but definately a test for Cobalt if he were to stay.

Curlin on the other hand will need more than three starts to be Derby winner. While impressive Saturday he truly did not beat much

Probably because he would come in well rested and prepared to beat the tired Kentucky Derby winner (whatever horse that may be.) If he runs in the derby, he's not going to be well rested.

So this was Curlin's what, second career start? Give him another before the Derby, and he'll come into the Derby with three starts under his belt. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in a horse that comes into the starting gate in a 20 horse field with such little seasoning.

I can't find my stats, but I don't think a horse has won the Derby with fewer than four or five career starts since like 100 years ago.

Alot of derby trends are changing, though. . . Look @ dosage, the three prep philosophy, and the fact that Barbaro won last year with 5 weeks between starts. . . An exceptional horse or perfect set-up will overcome these trends. . .

The three prep angle is still in effect. The five week layoff angle was broken last year. Dosage is hooey, so I don't count that for anything. Given that no dual qualifier has won the Derby since like '97.

The dual qualifiers are bolded. (For those interested.) There are some not on this list, but you get the general idea.

Horse Trainer Dosage Jockey

Adore the Gold Michael Gorham 2.20 Cornelio Velasquez

Any Given Saturday Todd Pletcher 2.67 * Rafael Bejarano

Bwana Bull Jerry Hollendorfer 3.40 Russell Baze

Circular Quay Todd Pletcher 2.08 * Garrett Gomez

Cowtown Cat Todd Pletcher 2.60 Ramon Dominguez

E Z Warrior Bob Baffert 3.00 David Flores

Great Hunter Doug O'Neill 3.00 * Corey Nakatani

Hard Spun Larry Jones 2.67 Mario Pino

Ketchikan Al Stall Jr. 2.11 Larry Melancon

King of the Roxy Todd Pletcher 3.00 * Edgar Prado

Liquidity Doug O'Neill 1.86 * Corey Nakatani

Nobiz Like Shobiz Barclay Tagg 1.44 * Cornelio Velasquez

Notional Doug O'Neill 2.33 Corey Nakatani

Officer Rocket Robert Holthus 3.00 Calvin Borel

Ravel Todd Pletcher 3.00 Garrett Gomez

Scat Daddy Todd Pletcher 2.47 * John Velazquez

Stormello Bill Currin 2.67 * Kent Desormeaux

Street Sense Carl Nafzger 2.14 * Calvin Borel

Summer Doldrums Richard Violette Jr. 3.67 Mike Luzzi

Teuflesberg Jamie Sanders 2.27 Stewart Elliott

Xchanger Mark Shuman 3.00 Joe Bravo

Zanjero Steve Asmussen 3.50 Garrett Gomez

Hmmm...well the dual qualifier non-winning streak could certainly be broken this year. Certainly.

To eliminate a colt because of some old tradition is kinda like saying bet the gray in the 3rd race. Because more grays win he 3rd race.This horse smoked the field in his 2nd race and 1st 2 turn race. Handicaping normally everyone would say gimme more ground and look for more improvement. If you are going to toss this horse at least evaluate his form and progression.

Cobalt Blue earned a 96 BSF compared to Curlin's 97. . .

visually i thought curlin was 10 times more impressive, i thought his number would come back 4-5 points higher than cobalt blue

Oh man!

Again even though the tracks run very differently, over 2 seconds difference seems very large. I know Santa Anita is fast but over 2 seconds??? (looks like 2.3 seconds) diff. with the winning horse on the slower track (Curlin) winning by a much wider margin.

The times must have played too much of a role in those Beyers if one horse was far more visually impressive than another (which I dont agree with, I think Cobalt Blue showed wonderful restraint, a very professional run for a relatively inexperienced horse first time going two turns) and the numbers are almost exactly the same. Maybe that big bad Grade II was given extra points or something.