Derby Future Wager Pool 1 -- Feb. 12-15
 

2009 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 1 - Feb. 12-15
Number
Wagering Interest
Morning line odds

1
Beethoven
15-1

2
Big Drama
30-1

3
Capt. Candyman Can (g)
10-1

4
Chocolate Candy
50-1

5
Flying Pegasus
30-1

6
Friesan Fire
12-1

7
Giant Oak
15-1

8
Haynesfield
50-1

9
Hello Broadway
50-1

10
I Want Revenge
50-1

11
Midshipman
12-1

12
Notonthesamepage
30-1

13
Old Fashioned
10-1

14
Papa Clem
20-1

15
Patena
20-1

16
Pioneerof the Nile
20-1

17
Silver City
50-1

18
Stardom Bound (f)
12-1

19
Taqarub
30-1

20
The Pamplemousse
30-1

21
This Ones For Phil (g)*
12-1

22
Vineyard Haven
12-1

23
West Side Bernie
50-1

24
Mutuel Field ("All Others")
5-2

(f) - filly (g) - gelding * - Not nominated to Triple Crown

If anyone wants a real future bet in Vegas PM me and I'll be happy to make it at Wynn next week.

NT

Pioneer of the Nile will be much lower than 20-1 after Sunday IMO.

The betting ends on Sunday and Old Fashioned runs on Monday. That's like in prior years when the betting closed on Sunday at 6pm and a major race went off in Cali at 6:30.

I'd be very surprised if Hello Broadway is anywhere close to his morning line odds.
I'd say he's around 20-1 when the wagering closes.

Pioneerof the Nile is very high, relative to where he'll close. Capt Candyman Can is low relative to where he'll close off a sprint win in his return. Beethoven is very low off an off theboard return, in spite of a poor post etc. I wouldn't take a guaranteed 100-1 on any of the horses in Dubai and Notonthesamepage and This ones for Phil should be about 75-1 as they both look better suited to sprints. (Dutrow was quoted as saying something about improving Phil by taking him back to his "best distance.")

I don't know why they included This One's for Phil, given that he isn't even nominated. Geez, they only have 23 individual horses and you'd think they could at least list horses that are currently eligible. Seems kind of fraudulent to me because some folks playing these will just be looking at names and not even understand. But perhaps that's why they did it. Reminds me of that silly Calder Derby - KY Derby bet last year when nearly half of the horses listed for the latter part of the bet were no longer under consideration.

It's parimutuel so they make no more money by tricking people. Guess they thought the horse would take money despite not being nominated so didn't want to include him with the field.

not true - if you bet the horse and he doesnt run you dont get your money back... you lose

That's true, and does nothing to contradict what I just said.

OK, sure.:confused:


If the horse is not nominated the horse should not be an entry. simple as that.


CD keeps the money bet on a horse that doesnt run

the bet money doesn't get paid out to all the winning bettors? isn't that how they decide the odds? other than the takeout of course...

Yes, it does. That is why if you restrict it to 23 horses you want to include the 23 most likely to take money regardless of whether they are nominated. Otherwise the field entry winds up taking too much money and people won't bet it at the low odds.

Did Mike Battaglia even try to make the morning line odds somewhat sensible?

Capt. Candyman Can, Giant Oak, and Beethoven are all ridiculous morning line prices. Oh, wait a minute, they ran 1-2-3 in the Ky Jockey Club at CD. Right.

Notonthesamepage is 30-1 having done NOTHING at a distance beyond six furlongs yet Haynesfield is 50-1. Wow.

Stardom Bound is 12-1!?!?? God bless anyone who bets Stardom Bound at 12-1 or even 30-1 for that matter.

NT

Anybody have the PP's for all 401 horses nominated? DRF use to sell a "hard copy" form at newstands, but they haven't offered that the past few years.

Odds Corrected
 

Pioneerof The Nile's morning line odds were incorrectly listed at 20-1 on KentuckyDerby.com. His corrected ML odds are 12-1.

As for the other ridiculous ML numbers, they are staying as they are.

I have the brisnet ones, shoot me an email at sb008h@yahoo.com. If anyone gets the DRF ones let me know.

CD's inclusion is pretty idiotic and irresponsible (most likely just an oversight), but it doesn't benefit them in any way. In all actuality, since it's a parimutuel wager, it gives a slight edge to anyone betting on any other horse in the field. CD doesn't keep the money - this isn't a vegas future - it'll be paid out to whoever bets on the winning entry. . .

They have until March 28th to late nominate him for $6,000 which I'm sure they'll do if he wins the Fountain of Youth and is entered in the Florida Derby. It's hardly a big deal that he isn't nominated. Last year Eight Belles and Recapturetheglory were late nominees and both wound up in the Derby top five.

Good point. . . still seems a little odd to me, though. . .