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There was no way I could sit through that BUT my daughter was instructed to yell twice... once when they were on the red carpet and once when they performed so yes, saw it. :) :tro:
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I think this is the Jimmy news we all expected: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/racing/new...ectid=10706341
It follows the pattern he's had this season much better than racing again before the Derby. A bit of a shame King's Rose won't run in the Derby, but it'll be good to see her destroy the Aussies in the AJC Oaks. |
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I am really happy about this!
Sick of Lai riding him. I mean I wouldn't want him riding me! :D He might not be able to beat Lucky Nine home but at least he has a fair chance of finally hitting the board! Hong Kong Jockey Club... The Hong Kong Jockey Club advises that permission has been granted for Jockey Mark Du Plessis to ride Handsome Zulu, trained by Peter L Ho, in the Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong Classic Cup (HK Group 1) scheduled to be conducted at Sha Tin Racecourse on Sunday, 20 February 2011. Permission has been granted for Jockey Du Plessis to ride Handsome Zulu in this race after receiving an undertaking from the owner of Handsome Zulu that he had engaged Jockey Du Plessis to ride that horse in the event that it is included in the field for the Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong Derby (HK Group 1, Sha Tin, 20 March 2011). This is in accordance with the criteria previously approved by the Racing Committee in respect of the approval for overseas jockeys to ride in principal races in Hong Kong. As a Visiting Jockey, Mark Du Plessis will be permitted to accept race riding engagements in all races run at the aforementioned race meeting. |
That's good news. MDP has ridden Handsome Zulu many times before here in NZ, so he knows him well.
Great fields for Saturday at Ellerslie... Avondale Guineas (G2) 1 30122 Icepin 13 85 56.0 Danielle Johnson (a) Jason Bridgman, Matamata 2 31212 Jetset Lad 3 85 56.0 Jason Collett (a) John Wheeler, New Plymouth 3 61253 He's Remarkable 21 84 56.0 Matthew Cameron Roger James, Cambridge 4 15211 O'Reilly's Prize 19 79 56.0 Hayden Tinsley David Haworth & Matt Dixon, Foxton 5 12332 Yin Yang Master (AUS) 7 78 56.0 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata 6 21123 Historian 9 77 56.0 Chad Ormsby Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue, Cambridge 7 14555 Encosta Diablo 16 75 56.0 Chris Johnson Jason Bridgman, Matamata 8 3116 Hidden Asset 1 75 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge 9 1144 Raffles Knight (AUS) 17 75 56.0 Leith Innes Stephen McKee, Ardmore 10 12164 On The Level 15 74 56.0 Craig Grylls Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge 11 5411 Sierra Nevada 2 74 56.0 Jim Byrne Richard & Chris Otto, Te Awamutu 12 0X401 Starcheeka (AUS) 12 74 56.0 Grant Cooksley Stephen McKee, Ardmore 13 33136 Yourein (AUS) 18 70 56.0 Michael Coleman John Sargent, Matamata 14 65211 Banchee 8 86 54.5 James McDonald (a) John Sargent, Matamata 15 64319 Smoulder 11 83 54.5 Noel Harris Graeme & Mark Sanders, Te Awamutu 16 51028 Rimsky 20 69 56.0 Scratching Bruce Wallace, Takanini 17 4491 Between The Beats 14 69 56.0 Jeff Lynds, Awapuni 18 1 C'est Magnifique 10 68 56.0 Roger James, Cambridge 19 20P48 Keenly 6 68 54.5 Robert Priscott & Clayton Chipperfield, Te Awamutu 20 24577 Mr Pedantic 4 68 56.0 Patsy Riley, Pukekohe 21 X4439 Beam Me Up 5 57 56.0 Bryce Revell, New Plymouth Avondale Cup (G2) 1 00832 Sir Slick 15 106 59.0 Matthew Cameron Graeme Nicholson & Paul Allbon, Te Aroha 2 24138 Tinseltown 12 105 58.5 Michael Coleman Michael Moroney & Andrew Clarken, Matamata 3 X00X6 Doctor Fremantle (GB) 8 103 57.5 James McDonald (a) Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge 4 24742 Six O'Clock News 3 102 57.0 Leith Innes Trent Busuttin, Cambridge 5 X7499 Solid Billing (AUS) 9 100 56.0 Eddie Wilkinson Craig Ritchie, Pukekohe Park 6 31819 Showcause (AUS) 6 97 54.5 Darryl Bradley Frank Ritchie, Cambridge 7 10263 Loose Change 14 95 53.5 Jason Collett (a) David Haworth & Matt Dixon, Foxton 8 X6307 Castle Heights 5 94 53.0 Jim Byrne Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs, Ruakaka 9 18824 Can't Keeper Down 11 90 52.5 Noel Harris Lisa Latta, Awapuni 10 36680 Zabene 2 90 52.5 Paul Taylor Stephen McKee, Ardmore 11 23004 Tin Goose 13 88 52.0 Allan Peard Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs, Ruakaka 12 07262 Trilogy 4 88 52.0 Tasha Collett Lester Morris, Rangiora 13 11236 He's Under The Gun 1 86 52.0 Craig Grylls Michael Moroney & Andrew Clarken, Matamata 14 11157 Innocent Lady 7 85 52.0 Mark Du Plessis Graeme & Mark Sanders, Te Awamutu 15 00331 Payback 10 79 52.0 Danielle Johnson (a) Nick Duin, Pukekohe 16 86584 Maythehorsebemagic 16 72 52.0 Cory Parish Brad Peterson, Cambridge Derby Day isn't far away now! |
Nice fields!
When exactly is Derby day??? |
March 5.
15 days to go! |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02cKpN-DRgY
Wow, I was not expecting that! But I'm so happy for him. And the Cup: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBoUOnAvz5c He's having a great year - his third G2 win. |
Those were fantastic and yeah very happy for both winners.
Everyone ran well enough so no feeling bad for anyone this time... it just wasn't to be. Especially happy that Icepin got such a nice win. That was an awfully tough field! Good stuff! I love this race called and yes I shall now say this every time. :D |
Banchee and He's Remarkable both had some trouble finding gaps down the stretch, but I don't know if they would have got to Icepin anyway. He ran so well.
Jimmy's still the $2.80 Derby favourite. He's Remarkable is at $8. Icepin has come in to $9. Banchee's $14. |
KING'S ROSE TO RUN IN THE DERBY? :eek:
Her odds dropped from 17-1 to 4-1 second favourite today, so they must have given some indication that they're strongly considering it. It's hard to talk about how awesome this race could be without swearing! King's Rose, who has won 5 stakes races in a row, versus the incredible, invincible Jimmy Choux. |
Speechless! :eek: :tro:
That would be amazing!!!!! |
Are you okay, ed?
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Yeah I'm fine. But it's really sad. :( I go down there for a week every November, so I know the place really well.
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I'm just really really sorry and I hope everyone you know is okay.
A lot of earthquakes here in LA so I know how devastating they can be and the emotional toll... the aftershocks...not knowing where people you know are.... All of you in NZ are in our thoughts. :( |
Appreciate that.
It's a hard day here in NZ today. We're only a country of 4 million, so 65 is a horrific loss. We're really feeling it today. Probably like the most countries look at their biggest cities, the rest of NZ has a bit of a negative attitude towards Auckland and thinks we don't really care about the rest of the country. But from what I saw on the streets today, we really do. All our flags are at half-mast. You usually hear loud conversations and laughter in all directions, but there's a weird silence today. A lot of people have their heads down. And we're at the other end of the country. It must be so much worse in Christchurch itself. I've seen so many great races there - Tell A Tale, Katie Lee's two G1s in a week, and also Jimmy and King's Rose just last November. It's like a second home. And all the people there have always been so nice. Luckily all my friends there are unhurt. What really makes it seem real is this sad sight. This is/was one of NZ's most famous and beautiful buildings.  Here it is now.  I hope the great people of the wonderful city of Christchurch pull through this. We're all thinking of them, around NZ and the world. Sorry that was so long. Just needed to get that off my chest. I was going to start a big preview of the Derby this week with contender profiles, but I might leave that until the weekend. |
Seeing that picture and reading your post made my heart sink.
You've created this fantastic connection... always so enlightening with NZ racing and stuff. So far away and this sounds really cliche but it's like you've brought it closer and it just makes us hurt a little more for you. And yeah us cause even though it's quiet I know that a few people faithfully read this thread even if they're quiet. I am just so sorry. 65 is a high number. I'm so sorry. |
Although all of our thoughts are still with Christchurch and the families and friends of the 113 people now confirmed lost, there are some great races tomorrow that can temporarily ease the pain.
The G1 Otaki Classic: 171X2 Wall Street 2 114 59.0 Michael Coleman Jeff Lynds, Awapuni 8125X Harris Tweed 3 110 59.0 Jonathan Riddell Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge 00870 Vosne Romanee 9 106 59.0 Buddy Lammas Jeff Lynds, Awapuni 39851 Hold It Harvey 4 105 59.0 Jamie Bullard Terri Rae, Riccarton Park 62251 Spiro 6 101 59.0 Kane Smith Sylvia Kay, Levin 333X3 Keep The Peace 10 104 57.0 James McDonald (a) Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge 518X3 Barinka 8 101 57.0 Darryl Bradley Karen Zimmerman, Otaki 02124 Dasoudi 1 95 57.0 Lisa Allpress Jon Miller, Pukekohe Park A small field, but so good! I think Wall Street should win it, but Keep The Peace is such a good horse as well. And her owners will donate whatever money they win to Christchurch, so a lot of people will be behind her tomorrow. And two good 2yo races at Matamata... Matamata Breeders' Stakes (fillies) 231 Anabandana (AUS) 1 74 56.0 Opie Bosson Don Sellwood, Cambridge 17168 Miss Upstart (AUS) 11 72 56.0 Andrew Calder Graham Richardson, Matamata 12 Beejay Belle 3 70 56.0 Leith Innes Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge 157 Cracker 10 68 56.0 Hayden Tinsley Andrew Scott, Matamata 31046 Queen Boudicca 8 68 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Jason Price, Matamata 451 Rose Of Falkirk 2 68 56.0 Reese Jones Mark Brosnan, Matamata 1 White Lies 6 68 56.0 Craig Grylls Stephen Marsh, Cambridge 3332 Dowager Queen 4 59 56.0 Mark Sweeney Graeme & Debbie Rogerson, Tuhikaramea 523 Orutan 7 58 56.0 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata 3 Shopaholic 5 57 56.0 Michelle Wenn Mark Brooks, Matamata 2 Vittoria 9 57 56.0 Mark Hills Robyn & Russell Rogers, Cambridge Anabandana is probably the best 2yo in the country on her performances so far, so it'll be interesting to see how she goes here. Waikato Slipper (colts & geldings) 11535 Savabill 9 74 56.0 Hayden Tinsley John Sargent, Matamata 121X Bespoke 4 72 56.0 Opie Bosson Jason Bridgman, Matamata 527 Heza Rebel 8 57 56.0 Cameron Lammas Lance Noble, Matamata 63 Quintero (AUS) 7 56 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Peter McKay, Matamata 4 St Darci 1 56 56.0 Chad Ormsby Chris McNab, Cambridge 5 Boomstix 3 52 56.0 Michelle Wenn Danica Guy, Matamata 9 Karrdo 6 50 56.0 Leith Innes Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge Savabill's the one that finished so strongly in the Million last month. That was an amazing performance, and he's the favourite here. Oh, and 8 days til the Derby. |
And good luck to MUFHASA in the G1 Futurity in Melbourne! You can do it.
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That's why he won't win there... he doesn't know who he is! :D Honestly! I'm gonna say Wall Street wins but if it's Keep the Peace (or Harris Tweed which it won't be :) or Vosne Romanee) does well it's all good. Okay serious things now... I didn't realize the death toll had gone up and so dramatically. Sad, sad, sad. |
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Replays of the big NZ races: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Do6LHDl7Ims http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnAbOVALE44 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLe3udhwjp0 |
Right, time for Derby contender profiles. These might be a bit long. Sorry!
Before we start, it's been announced that King's Rose will not run in the Derby. I got all excited for nothing! Anyway, it's still a great field. I'll probably try to do two of these a day. Here we go. No prizes for guessing who we'll start with...  JIMMY CHOUX 3 c Thorn Park - Cierzo Breeder: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd. Owner: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd. Trainer: John Bary Jockey: Jonathan Riddell Starts: 15 Wins: 8 Seconds: 3 Thirds: 2 Earnings: $921,550 Major wins: New Zealand 2000 Guineas (G1) Great Northern Guineas (G2) Hawke's Bay Guineas (G2) Wakefield Stakes (G2) Wellington Stakes (G3) Waikato Guineas (G3) Last start: Waikato Guineas (1st) Best performance of the season: Waikato Guineas (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ5tofvX9pc Season so far: 2nd Wanganui Guineas behind Fiddler - beaten by a nose on a very wet track 1st Hawke's Bay Guineas, beating Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now, He's Remarkable 1st New Zealand 2000 Guineas, beating He's Remarkable, Twilight Savings, Rememba Howe, Icepin 15th Levin Classic - eased (cardiac arrhythmia) 1st Great Northern Guineas, beating Icepin, Yin Yang Master 1st Wellington Stakes, beating Jetset Lad, He's Remarkable 1st Waikato Guineas, beating Historian, Yin Yang Master Pedigree: Um, not very good. Sire Thorn Park was no more than a sprinter - the longest race he ever won was just 1400m. Neither his own performance nor that of his offspring so far suggest he'll ever sire a Derby winner. Cierzo never finished in the money in a race. Her first two foals both failed to do so as well. From a pedigree point of view, Jimmy Choux should be struggling in a sprint maiden race at some rural racetrack. It just shows that sometimes a horse can completely defy what their pedigree suggests they should do. They don't know their breeding is terrible! Positives: - Best 3yo in NZ - He's beaten pretty much all of these horses, and his wins against them have all been incredibly easy - Getting better with each race - He's just awesome - Trainer and jockey doing very well this season Negatives: - Although I think he's already proven that his pedigree is irrelevant, there will be a bit of doubt over the distance until he does it. This will be the only time he runs a mile and a half in his life. - He's been racing since September, so it's been a long campaign. But his races have been well spread out. Current odds: 9-5 (favourite) So can he win? Of course he can! The only negative is the question marks over the distance, because his pedigree so strongly suggests that he should be a sprinter. But his pedigree also suggests he should be a terrible racehorse. He's ignored the ability limitations of his pedigree; why should the distance limitations be any different? Predicted finish: 1st |
 HE'S REMARKABLE 3 c Pentire - Axiom Breeder: Rich Hill Stud Owner: G G Syndicate, J B Struthers & R S Balcoumb Trainer: Roger James Jockey: Matthew Cameron Starts: 7 Wins: 2 Seconds: 1 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $193,500 Last start: Avondale Guineas (10th) Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PetkprE1UZ0 Season so far: 1st Maiden 6th Hawke's Bay Guineas behind Jimmy Choux, Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now 1st Rating 70 2nd New Zealand 2000 Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 5th Rating 90 behind Fazzle 3rd Wellington Stakes behind Jimmy Choux, Jetset Lad 10th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin - had some trouble getting a clear run Pedigree: Excellent (excuse the pun). He's by Pentire, who of course sired 2004 Derby winner Xcellent, and is known for stamina - his other good runners include Tinseltown, Pentane, Pentastic, Pentathon, Tin Goose and Zarita. And his dam, Axiom, is a daughter of champion sire Zabeel - one of the most successful stallions in NZ history, and the sire of three NZ Derby winners and also three Melbourne Cup winners. Stamina will not be an issue for He's Remarkable. Positives: - He's probably the second best 3yo we've got this season - Proven in G1 company, with his amazing performance for 2nd in the 2000 Guineas - Trainer Roger James has won the Derby three times - James considers him the best horse he's trained since Zonda, the champion of the late '90s who won the Derby in 1997. I still consider him the second best I've seen after Sunline. Negatives: - Jimmy keeps beating him. Maybe he was just born in the wrong year - Hasn't won a race since October Current odds: 7-1 (second favourite) So can he win? Yes, although his form at the moment worries me. He hasn't really shown his true ability since the 2000 Guineas in November. But while some others have some doubts about the distance, he'll love the step up to 2400m. He should be making a strong run in the last furlong or so of this great race. He should finish in the money. Predicted finish: 3rd (Ooh, who will I pick for 2nd? The suspense! :D) |
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(Agree Jimmy wins it!). :) Can't wait for the rest! This is always so much appreciated and it's something I look forward to every year. |
That's good to hear! It's fun to do. Here's another one...
 BANCHEE 3 f Oratorio - Miss Jessie Jay Breeder: Hallmark Stud Owner: Pencarrow Stud Trainer: John Sargent Jockey: James McDonald Starts: 14 Wins: 5 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $419,575 Major wins: Karaka Mile Last start: Avondale Guineas (12th) Best performance of the season: Karaka Mile (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO-CDZOWe1Q Season so far: 9th Gold Trail Stakes behind Rememba Howe 9th Sarten Memorial behind We Can Say It Now 6th New Zealand 1000 Guineas behind King's Rose 5th Eulogy Stakes behind King's Rose 2nd Eight Carat Classic behind Smoulder 1st Cambridge Stud 3yo, beating Historian and Yin Yang Master 1st Karaka Mile, beating Icepin 12th Avondale Guineas - unlucky in stretch Pedigree: Crazily strong in terms of ability; not so much stamina. She's a half-sister to the amazing Katie Lee. What might help her get more distance is that her sire is Oratorio, whose horses should be able to run further than horses by Katie Lee's sprint sire Pins. Positives: - She has an unbelievable finishing sprint - Already a G1 winner - Has won four times at Ellerslie, including two major races - Jockey James McDonald is the best in NZ and in amazing form - had six wins Saturday Negatives: - Although she was unlucky in her last race, I'm not sure she was really going well enough anyway - Hasn't won beyond a mile Current odds: 9-1 (fourth favourite) So can she win? Yes, but there are some big doubts hanging over her. I'd love to see her do it, and she's one of the best horses in the race for sure. I'm just worried about that last race, and the fact that she's never won over further than a mile. This is a lot further than a mile! Also, it's been 18 years since a filly won the Derby, and only one filly has finished in the money in the last 8 years. Predicted finish: 4th I'm probably going to be hugely wrong with these predictions! Off to work now. I'll do another one when I get home. |
 ICEPIN 3 g Pins - Ice Maiden Breeder: Waikato Stud Owner: Herbie Dyke Trainer: Jason Bridgman Jockey: Sam Spratt Starts: 14 Wins: 4 Seconds: 4 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $356,615 Major wins: Avondale Guineas (G2) Last start: Avondale Guineas (1st) Best performance of the season: Avondale Guineas (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02cKpN-DRgY Season so far: 2nd Hawke's Bay Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 3rd Canterbury Stakes behind Undisclosed 10th New Zealand 2000 Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 1st Rating 80, beating I'm A King and Riotous 2nd Great Northern Guineas to Jimmy Choux 2nd Karaka Mile to Banchee 1st Avondale Guineas, beating almost every Derby contender except Jimmy Choux Pedigree: Very sprint-heavy. Pins is a highly successful sire, but most of his horses excel over sprint distances. Ice Maiden was a good mare, but she never won over more than 1200m either. Judging simply from his breeding, it's ridiculous that he won the Avondale Guineas over 2100m. But he has a love of racing and determination that has nothing to do with the pedigree page. Positives: - Never runs a bad race - Two wins at Ellerslie, including the Avondale Guineas, and two more stakes placings there - The field he beat in the Avondale Guineas was very similar to the likely Derby field - Trained by NZ's leading trainer, Jason Bridgman, and ridden by outstanding jockey Sam Spratt (of Mufhasa fame) Negatives: - Jimmy keeps beating him, and he has no excuses - he just gets beaten by a better horse - Excessively sprint-oriented breeding Current odds: 8-1 (third favourite) So can he win? It'd be great if he did, but I don't think he can. Jimmy Choux has beaten him fair and square so many times now that it's just hard to see him turning that around. But no one expected him to win the Avondale Guineas, and he did, so rule him out completely at your own peril. It's impossible not to love him, and it would be awesome to see him do well. He's definitely a place chance. Predicted finish: 5th |
I"m really starting to love Icepin and decided I'm going to predict right along with you.
So far I have Jimmy winning as well and this one 2nd. :) I don't want to interrupt the fantastic job you're doing (and God you will never know how much I appreciate this!) but where's my slow boy Upsala? Has he raced since that day when (I think ) he didn't like the wet track? Thanks! Oh yeah and whatever that Mufhasa didn't win! Tough field... even for a HOY and finishing where he did was pretty damned good, you're right! |
And Mufhasa had a bad flight over the day before - stuck in a box for 13 hours! It's usually about five or six hours. Poor guy. Might have affected his performance.
I can tell you that Upsala ran second in a trial on the 24th. He was in heat 19: http://www.nzracing.co.nz/Meetings/T...lts.aspx/38946 I see he beat a G1 winner (Miss Raggedy Ann)! I haven't heard what the plans are for Upsala, but I'll post them here if I do. |
That's awesome!
Thanks for the news and wow poor Mufhasa. That sucks! |
A couple that you might not have heard much about...
 O'REILLY'S PRIZE 3 g O'Reilly - Jabeske Breeder: AJ, JTE, MJ and TH Gilbert Owner: KS Daley, AJ, JTE, MJ and TH Gilbert, C Maddock and W van der Scheer Trainer: David Haworth & Matt Dixon Jockey: Hayden Tinsley Starts: 7 Wins: 3 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 0 Earnings: $32,875 Last start: Avondale Guineas (5th) Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_518xuRxuI4 Season so far: 2nd Maiden 1st Maiden 5th Rating 70 2nd Rating 70 1st Rating 70 1st Rating 80 5th Avondale Guineas - unlucky Pedigree: He has a very solid pedigree that suggests a mile and a half should pose no problems. But there's not a huge amount of ability on the dam side - Jabeske herself won two races, but her first two foals to race didn't perform well at all. O'Reilly's Prize is already her most successful foal by a long way. Positives: - Seems to be peaking at the right time - Bred to love the distance - Ran a good race in the Avondale Guineas - without interference, he could have finished 2nd - Hayden Tinsley is one of our best big-race jockeys Negatives: - He hasn't completely proven that he belongs at this level - The races he has won were quite poor fields - he's never come up against a horse as good as Jimmy Choux Current odds: 13-1 So can he win? He's getting a pretty big reputation and is quite popular with a lot of experts. I think he's going to become a nice horse in time, but I don't think it'll be his day on Derby day. Predicted finish: 13th  WISECRACK 3 g High Chaparral - Limerick Breeder: GE Harding Owner: GE Harding Trainer: Ken & Bev Kelso Jockey: Chris Munce Starts: 3 Wins: 2 Seconds: 0 Thirds: 0 Earnings: $10,925 Last start: Rating 70 (1st) Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SheGNf5e-ck Season so far: 1st Maiden 7th Rating 70 1st Rating 70 Pedigree: Exceptional. He's by High Chaparral, who sired VRC Derby winner Monaco Consul and the trifecta of the AJC Derby last season. So there's no doubt about running the Derby distance on the sire side! Limerick is a stakes-winning mare who has already produced some quality horses - including Wishing and highly promising stayer Gallant. Positives: - A hugely promising young horse - Has won at Ellerslie - Outstanding pedigree - Goes into the race on the back of his best performance so far - A brilliant jockey Negatives: - The Derby will be just his fourth start. No horse apart from Xcellent in recent years has won the Derby after having so little foundation. Current odds: 16-1 So can he win? He could, but I think inexperience might stand in his way. It'll be just his fourth start. He's seen nothing yet that comes close to preparing him for this 18-horse stampede. I think he might turn out in time to be one of the best horses in this race, but I think the race is just a bit too soon in his career for him. But watch him next year. Predicted finish: 7th |
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Is Yin Yang Master going to the Derby? Historian? Not trying to rush you hahahaha it's like a good book (your Derby horse profiles) where you never want it to end but still, wondering... (!). Oh and you were right, I hadn't heard of either of the two. :) |
That's right - her name's Samantha, but she prefers Sam.
Here's the full Derby field: 10111 Jimmy Choux 7 94 56.0 Jonathan Riddell John Bary, Hastings 12530 He's Remarkable 14 82 56.0 Matthew Cameron Roger James, Cambridge 01221 Icepin 5 88 56.0 Sam Spratt Jason Bridgman, Matamata 31160 Hidden Asset 8 73 56.0 Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge 21642 On The Level 12 80 56.0 Michael Coleman Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge 31360 Yourein 13 70 56.0 Lisa Allpress John Sargent, Matamata 45559 Encosta Diablo 3 75 56.0 Opie Bosson Jason Bridgman, Matamata 12126 Jetset Lad 17 84 56.0 Scott Galloway John Wheeler, New Plymouth 23212 Nippin 11 76 56.0 Allan Sharrock, New Plymouth 23328 Yin Yang Master 10 76 56.0 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata 52115 O'Reilly's Prize 1 78 56.0 Hayden Tinsley David Haworth & Matt Dixon, Foxton 11234 Historian 4 77 56.0 Chad Ormsby Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue, Cambridge 11446 Raffles Knight 2 74 56.0 Stephen McKee, Ardmore 54113 Sierra Nevada 16 77 56.0 Richard & Chris Otto, Te Awamutu 171 Wisecrack 15 74 56.0 Ken & Bev Kelso, Matamata 44913 Between The Beats 9 70 56.0 Jeff Lynds, Awapuni 52110 Banchee 6 86 54.5 James McDonald (a) John Sargent, Matamata So the answers are yes and yes! |
Thank you cause I stupidly assumed she was a he but just to be clear I meant the other one... Danielle Johnson (I had to look up her name. Duh.).
Which is his regular rider or does he not really have one? |
 HIDDEN ASSET 3 g High Chaparral - Fragile Asset Breeder: BE & RW Punch Owner: BR Broomhead, GG Syndicate, Parsons Bloodstock, KL Syminton and Twelve Cheers Syndicate Trainer: Shaune Ritchie Jockey: Vinnie Colgan Starts: 5 Wins: 2 Seconds: 0 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $66,400 Major wins: Championship Stakes (G2) Last start: Avondale Guineas (14th) Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA Season so far: 3rd Maiden 1st Maiden 1st Championship Stakes, beating Hot Pursuit and Yourein 6th Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 14th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin Pedigree: Very strong. He's another High Chaparral, and his dam is a Zabeel mare. He should love the 2400m of the Derby. Positives: - Showed loads of ability when he won a G2 race over 2100m at Ellerslie on Jan 1 - Ritchie trained Military Move to win the Derby last year - Colgan has ridden four Derby winners Negatives: - His last two races have been the two worst performances of his career, and no one can explain why. Current odds: 19-1 So can he win? If you had asked me this in January, I would have said yes. He's been as high as my second pick for the Derby in the past. But his last performance was just terrible. If he miraculously returns to his best, he could win this. But I don't see him turning it around that quickly. Predicted finish: 10th  NIPPIN 3 c Pins - Wait A Minute Breeder: Waikato Stud Owner: EM Bourke, NA Bourke, AR Piercy, MI Eliason, JP Fleming and JA Washer Trainer: Allan Sharrock Jockey: Shane Scriven Starts: 7 Wins: 2 Seconds: 3 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $36,125 Last start: Rating 90 Best performance of the season: Conditions Race (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8Yw_E1vT1M Season so far: 6th Maiden 1st Maiden 2nd 3yo 3rd 3yo 2nd Rating 70 1st Conditions Race 2nd Rating 90 Pedigree: A little bit questionable - Pins is a speed sire. But the dam is by a good stamina sire in Centaine, and she won over 2100m herself. Positives: - Rated very highly by his trainer, who has already won a Derby with Wahid in 2006. - Since his below-par debut, he hasn't run a bad race. Negatives: - Hasn't faced stakes-class horses yet - He probably should have beaten that Rating 90 field in his last start, so he's coming into the race off a slightly disappointing effort. Current odds: 25-1 So can he win? His trainer seems to think so, so you can't completely rule it out. But I'm a bit worried about the fact that he hasn't faced good-class opposition yet. The Derby is going to be a big step up for this colt. He'll need to find five or six lengths on his last performance. Predicted finish: 14th  HISTORIAN 3 g Choisir - Cyclonic Breeder: Bledisloe Bloodstock Owner: Ngai Chun-Hung Trainer: Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue Jockey: Chad Ormsby Starts: 6 Wins: 2 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $32,125 Last start: Avondale Guineas (4th) Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNbJA_nRqZI Season so far: 2nd Maiden 1st Maiden 1st Rating 70 2nd 3yo - a nose behind Banchee 3rd Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 4th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin Pedigree: He's by the great Australian sprinter Choisir, so there are some concerns here. The dam, Cyclonic, also has a speedy pedigree, and her only win was 1300m - that's a long way short of 2400m. I hear alarm bells. Positives: - This is a really, really talented horse - He's never run a bad race, and has faced some of the very best 3yos in NZ - Banchee, Jimmy Choux and Icepin won his last three races Negatives: - The distance is going to be a huge test for this guy, I think Current odds: 17-1 So can he win? If he gets the distance, yes, he could win this race. He has proven himself to be not far behind the likes of Jimmy Choux, Banchee and Icepin. But I'm really worried about the 2400m for Historian. His pedigree suggests that even trying it is lunacy. He's done 2000m and 2100m in his last two starts and performed well, but this is another step up. I think it's just too far for him. But he'll be a good horse over shorter distances next year. Predicted finish: 12th |
 YIN YANG MASTER 3 g Fastnet Rock - Crazy Fling Breeder: Three Bridge Thoroughbreds Owner: BJ Bolton & T Li Trainer: John Sargent Jockey: Mark Du Plessis Starts: 9 Wins: 1 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 3 Earnings: $33,375 Last start: Avondale Guineas (8th) Best performance of the season: Great Northern Guineas (3rd) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGwzcGZvGf4 Season so far: 9th 3yo 7th Maiden 3rd Maiden 1st Maiden 2nd 3yo behind Raffles Knight 3rd Great Northern Guineas behind Jimmy Choux and Icepin 3rd 3yo behind Banchee and Historian 2nd Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 8th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin Pedigree: Fastnet Rock is a pretty speedy sire, but the dam is a daughter of Alysheba, so there should be a bit of stamina there. Plus, he just looks like a guy who can handle a distance - he's a big, powerful individual. I don't think there are any problems here. Positives: - Hardly ever runs a bad race - He's proven that he belongs in the best 3yo company - Mark Du Plessis in the saddle Negatives: - He keeps running good races without actually winning - just one win from 9 starts Current odds: 24-1 So can he win? I don't think so. He'll definitely run a good race, and I'm sure he'll finish in the first half, but I just don't see him winning this Derby. Jimmy Choux has beaten him twice in their two meetings, and I don't think he can turn the tables on him. I'm expecting a similar performance to the one he produced in the Avondale Guineas. Predicted finish: 8th  RAFFLES KNIGHT 3 c Encosta De Lago - Lady Circles Breeder: Arch Of Gold Ltd & Moffatt Breeding and Racing Owner: Raffles Dancers Ltd Trainer: Stephen McKee Jockey: Leith Innes Starts: 5 Wins: 2 Seconds: 0 Thirds: 0 Earnings: $21,125 Last start: Avondale Guineas (6th) Best performance of the season: 3yo (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEv6x-5HR0Q Season so far: 1st Maiden 1st 3yo 4th Great Northern Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 4th Rating 80 6th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin Pedigree: Very strong. Encosta De Lago is a terrific stamina sire. There should be no doubts at all about this horse's staying ability. Positives: - No bad races in his career - He's bred to be very good - Derby-winning jockey Leith Innes aboard Negatives: - After winning his first two starts, he's been beaten in his next three - He's still quite inexperienced and immature Current odds: 26-1 So can he win? He has a chance, but I think it's more likely that he'll run another very solid race and finish just behind the action. I believe he's a horse to watch next year. Predicted finish: 9th |
 SIERRA NEVADA 3 g High Chaparral - Rata Breeder: EO Aitken Owner: JC & MA Thompson Trainer: Richard & Chris Otto Jockey: Jim Byrne Starts: 5 Wins: 2 Seconds: 0 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $15,325 Last start: Avondale Guineas (3rd) Best performance of the season: Avondale Guineas (3rd) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02cKpN-DRgY Season so far: 5th Maiden 4th Maiden 1st Maiden 1st Rating 70 3rd Avondale Guineas behind Icepin Pedigree: High Chaparral - that's about all that needs to be said. And his dam, Rata, won three races over distances up to 2200m. This guy is bred to run all day. Positives: - He's getting good at exactly the right time - each start has been better than the one before it - Very solid pedigree Negatives: - He was a maiden on Jan 28 - is this too much, too quickly? Current odds: 16-1 So can he win? He can, but I think it's unlikely. He came from absolutely nowhere, improving an enormous amount in a very short period of time. The trainers said they are a bit worried that the Derby might be a bit too soon for him, and I share that concern. He's going to be a very good horse, but I think this will be a learning curve. Having said that, I think he'll run a strong race and go close to finishing in the money. Predicted finish: 6th ON THE LEVEL 3 g Align - Springtime Romance Breeder: Highview Stud Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker Trainer: Murray & Bjorn Baker Jockey: Michael Coleman Starts: 9 Wins: 2 Seconds: 3 Thirds: 0 Earnings: $46,475 Last start: Avondale Guineas (2nd) Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKnTiClTQao Season so far: 2nd Maiden 1st Maiden 2nd Rating 70 1st Conditions Race 6th Great Northern Guineas 4th Waikato Guineas 2nd Avondale Guineas Pedigree: Quite speedy - Align is well known as a sire of sprinters. But On The Level has already performed well in two distance races, so it may not be a concern. Positives: - Two very good races in a row against tremendous opposition - He was doing his best work at the very end of the Avondale Guineas - Coleman has won the Derby twice, including aboard Xcellent in 2004 - The Bakers are having a great season with the 3yos they train - Lion Tamer, We Can Say It Now... Negatives: - His two victories were both in quite low-quality company - There's not much stamina in his pedigree Current odds: 18-1 So can he win? Yes, and quite a few people are picking him as a live longshot chance. But I think that lack of stamina in his pedigree might cause him some trouble. He's also had two gut-busting runs in very tough company. That might start to take its toll as the field turns for home in the Derby. Predicted finish: 11th YOUREIN 3 g Reset - It's You Breeder: DW Flower Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker Trainer: John Sargent Jockey: Lisa Allpress Starts: 8 Wins: 1 Seconds: 0 Thirds: 3 Earnings: $41,400 Last start: Avondale Guineas (13th) Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (3rd) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA Season so far: 8th Maiden 3rd Maiden 1st 3yo (listed) 3rd Championship Stakes behind Hidden Asset 6th Karaka Mile behind Banchee 13th Avondale Guineas Pedigree: It's hard to say. Reset is a reasonably new sire. It's a bit of a weird pedigree, really. It's difficult to come to any sort of verdict about it. But this horse's owners know a lot about that sort of thing, so they must have liked what they saw when he went through the sale ring. Positives: - A listed stakes winner over 2100m at Ellerslie - Jockey Lisa Allpress is in the best form of her life - currently 2nd on the premiership - One of three runners in the race for trainer John Sargent Negatives: - It looks like he peaked in December/January - his form is going downhill Current odds: 40-1 So can he win? I don't think so. The Derby used to be run on Boxing Day, and I think if it was this time, he would have been one of the main chances. He was a good horse in December and January. But his performances have really gone downhill in the last couple of months. It would be a big surprise if he won. Predicted finish: 16th JETSET LAD 3 g Elusive City - Jetset Lass Breeder: Stewarts' Racehorse Syndicate Owner: CE & CJW Stewart Trainer: John Wheeler Jockey: Scott Galloway Starts: 10 Wins: 3 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $43,100 Last start: Avondale Guineas (7th) Best performance of the season: Wellington Stakes (2nd) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR0-ddZDfrI Season so far: 5th Rating 70 8th Rating 70 9th Wellington Guineas 3rd Rating 70 1st Rating 70 2nd 3yo 1st 3yo 2nd Wellington Stakes 7th Avondale Guineas Pedigree: Reasonably solid. Elusive City is a good sire, and his dam, Jetset Lass, wasn't far away when she ran 8th in the NZ Oaks in 2003. Positives: - A very good effort behind Jimmy Choux in the Wellington Stakes - Distance shouldn't be a problem Negatives: - Form is inconsistent - I was looking for a little more in the Avondale Guineas - Jockey Scott Galloway has never ridden at Ellerslie before - it's a tricky track to ride Current odds: 26-1 So can he win? My opinion is that he can't. He's a bit hot-and-cold, and what was by far his best performance of the season came on a track that was much wetter than Ellerslie is likely to be this weekend. And even though he ran well that day, Jimmy was clearly the better horse. I don't think it'll be Jetset Lad's day on Saturday. Predicted finish: 15th BETWEEN THE BEATS 3 g Golan - Whistling Jazz Breeder: CP & KR Russell Owner: GKV Holdings Ltd, MA Head & M Isaac Trainer: Jeff Lynds Jockey: Noel Harris Starts: 5 Wins: 1 Seconds: 0 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $8,600 Last start: Rating 80 (3rd) Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igAyWOd4EKI Season so far: 4th 3yo 4th Maiden 9th Wellington Stakes 1st Maiden 3rd Rating 80 Pedigree: Not bad. Golan has been a successful sire, and has sired a few Derby contenders in the past. The dam, Whistling Jazz, won a race. Positives: - Only one really poor performance - Trained by Jeff Lynds, who is having a great streak - Vosne Romanee, Wall Street and Booming Negatives: - That one bad performance was his only start against stakes-quality horses - This is a really huge step up from Rating 80 grade Current odds: 60-1 So can he win? No offense to the horse or any of his connections, but I'm going to predict that this horse will finish in last place. Someone has to come 17th, and Between The Beats has the least impressive credentials in this field. Predicted finish: 17th |
LAST ONE!
And you might notice I still haven't picked a horse to finish 2nd...  ENCOSTA DIABLO 3 c Encosta De Lago - Devil's Lair Breeder: Pencarrow Stud Owner: Te Akau Stud Trainer: Jason Bridgman Jockey: Opie Bosson Starts: 10 Wins: 4 Seconds: 1 Thirds: 0 Earnings: $73,575 Last start: Avondale Guineas (9th) Best performance of the season: Karaka Mile (fast-finishing 5th) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO-CDZOWe1Q Season so far: 1st 3yo 1st 3yo 4th Ray Coupland Stakes 5th New Zealand 2000 Guineas 5th 3yo 5th Karaka Mile (fast-finishing) 9th Avondale Guineas (unlucky and fast-finishing) Pedigree: The best in the field. He's by champion Australian sire Encosta De Lago. His dam is Devil's Lair, which makes him a half-brother to two Oaks winners - Vapour Trail and Santagostino. This pedigree, and his eye-catching conformation, saw him sell for one of the highest prices in the yearling sales of his year. Positives: - Sensational breeding - He hasn't run a bad race this season - A stakes-winner as a 2yo, so no doubting his ability - He's desperate for a step up in distance - Trained by Bridgman and ridden by Bosson - that combo seems to be working well with King's Rose! Negatives: - No wins since October Current odds: 15-1 So can he win? Yes. He's a beautifully bred and very highly talented galloper, ridden and trained by some of the best in NZ. There's no doubt he'll handle the distance. If it's not Jimmy's day on Saturday, it just might be Encosta's. Predicted finish: 2nd All done! That's the whole field. Thanks and congrats if you read all that! |
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Thank you for spending all this time... this is great and I've read through it twice (so far). Okay just for fun here's mine at this (kinda) early date (although it's realy not so early is it?)... 1. Jimmy :{>: 2. Icepin 3. Yin Yang Master 4. Banchee 5. Historian 6. Wisecrack 7. Hidden Asset 8. He's Remarkable 9. Encosta Diablo 10. Raffles Knight 11. Sierra Nevada Everyone else. :) Honestly, I can't wait! |
That looks like a very good list!
Ooh, BIG jockey news: Chris Munce can't make it over to ride Wisecrack anymore. Have a look at who they've got to replace him... http://www.nzracing.co.nz/Meetings/M...8383#raceLink9 :eek: He's never ridden in NZ before. Excited that I'm going to see him! |
Oh wow that is awesome!!!!! Very exciting!
* * * Since you might not have gone to the HK thread, I'll bring the news to you. :) LOOK!!!!! :tro: http://racing.scmp.com/freeservice/n...ws20110303.asp :tro: |
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