Hank Greenberg's been dead for 22 years, but Hank Goldberg is a bit of a bumbling fool. . . Brownie broke from post 7 of 13 in last year's Preakness - outside post in the FLA Derby and KY derby, though. . .

Also called her Rachel Alexander.

I used both "Goldberg" and "Greenberg" in that post somehow. And I haven't even been drinking today.

Don't worry, he probably did enough today for the both of you.

That's ok I said Derby when I meant Preakness so I guess neither of us can talk. . .

Whats going on with FF is he doing ok, how is his bad hoof.... havnt heard anything all week

his 'bad hoof' is just fine, and he's running saturday. well...he'll be in the gate..:D

I think we'll see something close to Phil's 9-1 on Big Drama. Bodog has been offering 20-1 all day, SportsInteraction is offering 18-1. When TheGreek put its odds up tonight, it offered 10.15-1, same as for Mine That Bird and Musket Man.

Here's my fair odds line, assuming a dry track:

PP# Horse My line
1 Big Drama 5
2 Mine That Bird 12
3 Musket Man 12
4 Luv Gov 100
5 Friesen Fire 15
6 Terrain 50
7 Papa Clem 10
8 General Quarters 30
9 Pioneerof the Nile 15
10 Flying Private 70
11 Take the Points 40
12 Tone It Down 200
13 Rachel Alexandra 9-5


--Dunbar

Do folks like Big Drama even with the inside post? Also, not that it really matters, but it's supposed to rain on and off in this area straight through Saturday. 80 and t-storms expected.

Big Drama is a big player in this race, I have this premonition of last year's Belmont with how Big Brown ran, Rachel Alexandra will be rating off of Big Drama early on and at some point the question will be popped as they say in oversees if BD fights her off or puts up a good fight I can see her getting discouraged or used and this could set it up for someone else or even Big Drama lasting for awhile. For some reason I either see her winning easily or running poorly, it's a feeling.

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...7/1037/rss0701

I love DWL's quote on the filly.

Lucas is a total joke. He's got two entered and can't wait to bet on RA, pathetic!!:mad:

Whats wrong with that? He's being realistic. Neither of them have any shot. Luv Gov is "prepping for the Belmont", and Flying Private finished last with no excuse two weeks ago (although I expect a better effort on Saturday).

If she's 2-1 or higher, I'M going to the bank.

Isnt the rail a huge plus for a horse whos obvious intent is to be on the lead?
Personally I couldnt think of a better horse who has this type of strategy.
As far as the wet goes, I think that would only enhance Big Drama's chances on Saturday.

Like CSC said about Rachael "either winning big or running poorly," I feel the exact same way about Big Drama. Not a horse I would want to key for 2nd or 3rd, only in the win slot.

isn't that what folks said about MTB at the derby (no shot) not that i think lucas will win but he loves to run his mouth and he'll jump on the hype just to get more money on the filly. 2 to 1, by post she'll be closer to 6-5 i'm thinking and thats what the other barns want because most likely she will lose. the water gets way deeper for her saturday and we shall see, its easy to look great against inferior horses. i'll be a believer if she jogs saturday but my money will bet against that. if you bet her you will have the weight of every chump out there that reads the hype and jumps on board, including folks that don't really bet horses. wayne lucas is no fool he even knows that and so do the other barns that will be betting their horses. the more people pile on the happier the other contenders will be, trust me.

You would think. But then you might watch Smith on Lionheart a few years back and wonder what the heck is going on here.

One of my tickets will certainly have POTN and MTB exacta box, interesting with Mike Smith he will have no choice but to be on the rail with the 2 draw when he is taken back early on. If Smith negotiates a wide trip from that draw he should be taken out to the back of the barn and lashed.

I think you're reading too much into it... there's going to be millions in the pool, just because Lukas says he's betting a horse doesn't mean it's suddenly going to drop her odds from 2-1 to 6/5... she might be 6/5 but it's not going to be Lukas' influence.

The simple fact is she's much the best if she can repeat her last few performances. I'll structure my tickets with that in mind. 50-60% of my pick 4 tickets will end with her, and the remaining 40-50% will have some combination of Big Drama, Musket Man, Fresian Fire, Pioneerofthe Nile, Papa Clem, and General Quarters, depending on what side of the bed I wake up on.

What did Smith do wrong on Lion Heart? He ran great in the Derby.

Damn right he did. I was talking about the Preakness. I think he went 4-wide on the lead all the way around the track.

He's talking about LH in the Preakness, when he ran fifth I believe. Can't remember the race well enough to say what Smith did wrong.

What does that have to do with Johnny V riding a horse like Big Drama who always goes to the lead, and now finds himself in perhaps the most paceless race hes ever been in?

I think if you like Big Drama at all, you have to be thrilled with his post. Is there any other post a horse like him could get that would be better?

True... looked like a very tired horse that day. Horse had shown a lot of tenacity in every race and offered no resistance that day. I guess with Mike Smith you kind of assume he starts in the 4 path and works his way out.

LH broke on top, SJ stalking, Eddington & RHT started their rallies entering the far turn, Elliott said go at that point and the race was over.

It probably doesn't have a whole lot to do with Velazquez/Big Drama. I just brought up a situation where having the rail with the lone speed doesn't help.

More than anything, I just watched the 2004 Preakness again last night and thought the ride was comical.

I don't want to turn this into a Mike Smith bashing thread, but it seems to me he has lucked into more good horses in his time than many other riders Ie. Lure, Azeri, Zenyatta, Holy Bull...ect than actually making a difference on a horse. You could easily make a case any rider worth his salt would have no trouble winning with these horses. He rarely makes a difference in a race, and honestly when I bet horses he is on I just hope he doesn't Fcuk up.

I hope you wake up on the side that doesnt inclde GQ or Papa Clem

Why?

Both will not fire.

General Quarters is not good and Papa was a product of track condition in the derby.

Papa Clem's work was awful, which bothers me, and I don't think GQ is good enough but I'm willing to draw a line through the Derby for all the runners and start over- clearly some handled the track and others didn't. The only two that ran to their capability were Musket Man and POTN. At 20-1 I'm willing to find out if GQ is good enough and at 12-1 I'll forgive Papa Clem's workout, but nothing less than those prices. So you might be correct in the two that I don't use.

Actually I agree, good citations of bringing up those stats from his good years. He was always in Bailey's shadow and whether one likes Bailey personally or not, no one could dispute he was a great rider. The difference from the 2 in my opinion is Bailey could make a difference in a horse's performance often bringing in the less superior horse, problem is you still wouldn't get fair value because people bet jockies. Mike's wide moves were also well suited for Belmont and I often wonder wouldn't N.Y be better suited for his riding style, Though I do understand why he moved due to declining mounts.

Besides the obvious Rachel/all, I was planning a seperate box with MTB, PON, MM and PC. I was still going back and forth last night about whether or not to add GQ to it. The 8 scares me enough, along with his honest BG win, that I can't toss him from what would be a good payoff. My TriBox is RA/PON/MM.

I don't know, I've never known the connections of a speed type in a route race be really excited about having the one post. I'd much rather be outside the speed.

They just showed Rachel schooling on the Pimlico feed. She looks great.

I think she will get better with her new connections not worse. Surely a little Ass TLC and elixirs can only help her...

how? justify.

I think this field is just a fine and with RA is in the mix it makes it even better.

For someone who has sent Pletcher off to the Derby with plenty of horses that were hopeless, I find it comical that Lucarelli accuses Jackson of "self-serving interest" for entering Rachel.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/103774.html

i think this field is better than big browns derby field, let alone the preakness...

What a tool

Let's see, Afleet Alex was out of a mare by Hawkster, a 10f-12f turf specialist by Silver Hawk, and the second dam was by Hawaii, another long-winded turfer who sired a (real) Derby winner at Epsom. Moreover, Northern Afleet, his sire, was a winner at up to 8.5f (G2 San Fernando S) and was a half-brother to a winner of the Delaware H (10f). Stick a little speed on top of the stayers and if you're lucky, you get a horse with both speed and stamina

And Da' Tara? He was by an out-and-out stayer named Tiznow you may have heard of. Out of a mare by Pirate's Bounty, he by a staying influence named Hoist the Flag out of a dam by a son of Nashua. Dam a SP full sister to a Vanity H (G1) winner and a couple of other stakes horses, solid enough family, bit more speed back here, but you need both.