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-   -   Thank You Mine That Bird (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29440)

CSC 05-03-2009 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Depends on your definitions and assumptions.

1) If you assume that QR and IWR would've finished ahead of PON had they run, then

2) it would come down to your definition of what tossing PON out of the exotics would mean

So it does come down to semantics and assumptions

but, all it all, the rigorous SPIN by the PON detractors (best defense is a good offense) kind of points to their losing this one.

Why anyone would think that PON is
a) exceptionally good
or
b) a plug

is beyond me.

I seem to remember all this POTN conversation started when IWR won the Gotham, then The Wood, and when Papa Clem won the Arkansas Derby. Essentially the crux of the discussion to bring it back to some semblance of logic here was could he transfer his synth form to dirt, and probably in this case improve as IWR and or PC did. I don't think anyone here said he was very good, great, whatever word you choose. Though no one should be judged on solely 1 race, I think we can conclude he is not simply a synth and or turf horse, that we know based on 1 isolated race.

SCUDSBROTHER 05-03-2009 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
this coming from the poster child for mental illness and a bunch of other stuff I have been sworn to secrecy about? That's rich. I could care less about the edits. I just think chickenshi.t edits, like you made yesterday and like Urkel makes are just lame. Say what you have to say, don't change it 15-20 minutes later to make yourself look better.

Just for you, I'm gunna go back in, and add winner of the Gotham and Wood Memorial to the list of horses POTN HAS BEATEN. This problem your having (with these edited posts) is OCD related. If your checking whether someone edits a post(and it's not a contest or something,) then you have a problem.
EDITED!!!!!!!
POTN has now beaten the winner of the Illinois Derby, Arkansas Derby(beat him on syn n' dirt by a remarkably similar distance,) Blue Grass, Lanes End, Louisiana Derby, U.A.E. Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, and he's beaten the horse who ran a decent 2nd in the Florida Derby. Oh, he also beat the winner of the Gotham and Wood Memorial. He beat that individual twice.

dalakhani 05-03-2009 08:43 PM

Do you guys think that Borel would have ridden that horse the same way if the trainer were, say, John Ward and the horse were 15-1 instead of 50-1? I dont mean the rail part. I mean the part where he took the horse 30 lengths back which was against instruction.

SCUDSBROTHER 05-03-2009 08:49 PM

^^SEE MY PREVIOUS POST. IT'S UPDATED.:eek: :baby: :L:

CSC 05-03-2009 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by santana
Although you certainly have a great opinion, most of the time....it seems as if you may be incorrect, but never wrong..;)

He does have a good opinion like many others here do also, it doesn't mean we cannot disagree. If we all agreed all races would feature 1:9 shots and several @ 99-1.

philcski 05-03-2009 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Do you guys think that Borel would have ridden that horse the same way if the trainer were, say, John Ward and the horse were 15-1 instead of 50-1? I dont mean the rail part. I mean the part where he took the horse 30 lengths back which was against instruction.

He got wasted at the start. When they opened the gates Join in the Dance took him and Papa Clem out, I figured that was the end for both of them.

Wrong again, just like everything else on this Derby for me. Hell, even my 3 year streak of picking the last place finisher is out the door. Went with Join in the Dance and he finished a very credible 7th.

Danzig 05-03-2009 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Do you guys think that Borel would have ridden that horse the same way if the trainer were, say, John Ward and the horse were 15-1 instead of 50-1? I dont mean the rail part. I mean the part where he took the horse 30 lengths back which was against instruction.

i thought he got shuffled back at the break. i don't think being last, that far back was part of the plan, it's just how things happened. i doubt the trainer got mad at him!

dalakhani 05-03-2009 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
He got wasted at the start. When they opened the gates Join in the Dance took him and Papa Clem out, I figured that was the end for both of them.

Wrong again, just like everything else on this Derby for me. Hell, even my 3 year streak of picking the last place finisher is out the door. Went with Join in the Dance and he finished a very credible 7th.

Ha! i used your pick 4 method. i did 3 120 dollar tickets. then i did a 36 dollar saver.

1/2/3 w 3 w 6 w deep derby.

Mine that bird wasnt in deep derby.

Back to the drawing board.

20 bucks (all button) away from 20k. Back to the drawing board.

Travis Stone 05-03-2009 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Do you guys think that Borel would have ridden that horse the same way if the trainer were, say, John Ward and the horse were 15-1 instead of 50-1? I dont mean the rail part. I mean the part where he took the horse 30 lengths back which was against instruction.

The thing with the drop back move is that so many of the horses in the race are incapable of going 10 furlongs at race speed. Borel takes advantage of this... he basically removes himself from the 'meat' of the race and asks the horse to run for 3 1/2-4 furlongs while most everyone else is asked to run harder longer.

He basically rode the Derby the same way three years in a row now, and is 3-2-0-1. Not bad.

philcski 05-03-2009 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Ha! i used your pick 4 method. i did 3 120 dollar tickets. then i did a 36 dollar saver.

1/2/3 w 3 w 6 w deep derby.

Mine that bird wasnt in deep derby.

Back to the drawing board.

20 bucks (all button) away from 20k. Back to the drawing board.

One guy on this board scored out with good ticket structure on the derby- and it sure as hell wasn't me.

SCUDSBROTHER 05-03-2009 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I went back and edited a few of mine. See if you can find them.

No, I don't do it. You'll have to get one of your goons to respond to it.

Danzig 05-03-2009 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I went back and edited a few of mine. See if you can find them.


you need to get out more. :zz:

CSC 05-03-2009 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
One guy on this board scored out with good ticket structure on the derby- and it sure as hell wasn't me.

You actually went through all the tickets? :tro: :zz:

MaTH716 05-03-2009 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
The thing with the drop back move is that so many of the horses in the race are incapable of going 10 furlongs at race speed. Borel takes advantage of this... he basically removes himself from the 'meat' of the race and asks the horse to run for 3 1/2-4 furlongs while most everyone else is asked to run harder longer.

He basically rode the Derby the same way three years in a row now, and is 3-2-0-1. Not bad.

It's amazing that in 19 & 20 horse fields that he has been able to stay away from trouble and take advantage of ground saving rail skimming trips.
I forgot who said it, but obviously he has gotten through on the biggest of stages. How many times does he not get through (maybe when he does have the best horse) when the world is not watching?

dalakhani 05-03-2009 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
One guy on this board scored out with good ticket structure on the derby- and it sure as hell wasn't me.

how did you do overall?

dalakhani 05-03-2009 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716
It's amazing that in 19 & 20 horse fields that he has been able to stay away from trouble and take advantage of ground saving rail skimming trips.
I forgot who said it, but obviously he has gotten through on the biggest of stages. How many times does he not get through (maybe when he does have the best horse) when the world is not watching?

why do they keep leaving the door open for him?

philcski 05-03-2009 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
You actually went through all the tickets? :tro: :zz:

No. I'm not that dedicated. :p He wrote me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
how did you do overall?

I bet $150 total all day. Return of $0. Compare that to over $5k handle on track at Derby Day last year. Actually just started a thread about the day's economics. How did you do overall? Make any money on the early races?

MaTH716 05-03-2009 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
why do they keep leaving the door open for him?

I'm not sure what goes through the mind of a jockey. Whether they are on the look out/are aware where certain horses are in the field. But I could confidently say that no one was worried where Calvin Borel and his horse with a career best 81 Beyer was lurking.

Travis Stone 05-03-2009 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716
It's amazing that in 19 & 20 horse fields that he has been able to stay away from trouble and take advantage of ground saving rail skimming trips.
I forgot who said it, but obviously he has gotten through on the biggest of stages. How many times does he not get through (maybe when he does have the best horse) when the world is not watching?

Fair points, and I'm sure one of these days he'll get stopped. But I don't mind the gamble... that's part of the game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
why do they keep leaving the door open for him?

I don't think anyone was scared of Borel sneaking-up the rail on Mine That Bird.

dalakhani 05-03-2009 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
No. I'm not that dedicated. :p He wrote me.



I bet $150 total all day. Return of $0. Compare that to over $5k handle on track at Derby Day last year. Actually just started a thread about the day's economics. How did you do overall? Make any money on the early races?

Not good, but did have tizaqueena. I kept having the right idea but wrong horse. I bet against kodiak cowboy (didnt seem to like offgoing according to form) but took my pal charlie as opposed to accreditted. Loved Papa clem and didnt have a clue about mine that bird.

Overall, losing day that could have been highly successful. its tough going in to the derby 12 deep with a pick 4 and not coming away a winner.

docicu3 05-03-2009 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
why do they keep leaving the door open for him?



Actually he rode more of a weave til the last 1/16th......started on the rail came around a few horses than back to the rail when no body else was running. He had it measured perfectly.....again!!

Coach Pants 05-03-2009 09:23 PM


Bobby Fischer 05-03-2009 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Do you guys think that Borel would have ridden that horse the same way if the trainer were, say, John Ward and the horse were 15-1 instead of 50-1? I dont mean the rail part. I mean the part where he took the horse 30 lengths back which was against instruction.

Good question. I think the deep set up was a very imporant part, because a lot of the decent horses were asked early because the thought by most was that speed would carry. Guys like Serling and Fat Man who preach race set ups should be all over the huge advantage Mine That Bird got from his positioning by Borel.

I don't know if John Ward in particular would have mattered, but maybe a trainer or owner who he depends upon stakes mounts from. Who knows?

It was obviously Borel's choice and not Mine That Bird's to hold so deep early, it is a move Borel has patented especially at Churchill Downs.

pgardn 05-03-2009 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Hey.
I was seriously worried for me lad.
He got a massive club to the head.

They better watch him for a few weeks.
That was a massive beat down.

CSC 05-03-2009 09:37 PM

I haven't had the time to read all 300+ posts in this thread, I may have missed one or two...the rail was a good spot, obvious enough. Has anyone mentioned the winning margin was 6 3/4 lengths. Let's just say 7 lengths. So if Mine The bird doesn't get the rail trip, he still wins by 2 anyway fair and square, maybe this horse should get more credit than what he has gotten thus far. But the margin of victory may have clouded some by dismissing this as a throwout race.

Port Conway Lane 05-03-2009 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
I haven't had the time to read all 300+ posts in this thread, I may have missed one or two...the rail was a good spot, obvious enough. Has anyone mentioned the winning margin was 6 3/4 lengths. Let's just say 7 lengths. So if Mine The bird doesn't get the rail trip, he still wins by 2 anyway fair and square, maybe this horse should get more credit than what he has gotten thus far. But the margin of victory may have clouded some by dismissing this as a throwout race.

You can check up to 190 to see if this has been covered,after that I am pretty sure it hasn't.

pgardn 05-03-2009 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

And yes I do get what other meaning this might have.
If you are that clever... And you realize who was
actually floored and exposed.

I wonder if anyone has actually knocked themselves
out with their own fist.

Danzig 05-03-2009 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
:rolleyes:

you need to stay out of betting discussions. we all have out faults.


:D

Coach Pants 05-03-2009 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
And yes I do get what other meaning this might have.
If you are that clever... And you realize who was
actually floored and exposed.

I wonder if anyone has actually knocked themselves
out with their own fist.

You picked Hatton, moron. There is no other way around it.

docicu3 05-03-2009 09:55 PM

If you want to read some REALLY interesting stuff you should take a gander at TGH's post derby explanations...."Ask The Experts".

TGJB or Jerry...."On Friday CD had a meeting with all of the trainers to go over the change in testing from the previous year as the lab for 2008 did not do blood testing for Bute among a number of other's. One trainer in the room got very agitated and started to ask a lot of questions....

....he says further......"maybe the result this year is more about an ABSENCE of medication this year as much as it is underperformance." or close to that.

You don't have to be Perry Mason or Columbo or Kojak or ...fill in ancient detective series of your choice, to figure out whom Mr Brown would like to see brought to justice more than any other trainer. You don't suppose JM would scratch a horse because he was fearful of another medication violation do you........nahhh!! I'm sure someone besides the connections and personal hired hand vet saw IWR in pain and fluctuant in the ankle right!!!......Of course he would never do that!!

The thread is from today and about MTB..

Danzig 05-03-2009 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
If you want to read some REALLY interesting stuff you should take a gander at TGH's post derby explanations...."Ask The Experts".

TGJB or Jerry...."On Friday CD had a meeting with all of the trainers to go over the change in testing from the previous year as the lab for 2008 did not do blood testing for Bute among a number of other's. One trainer in the room got very agitated and started to ask a lot of questions....

....he says further......"maybe the result this year is more about an ABSENCE of medication this year as much as it is underperformance." or close to that.

You don't have to be Perry Mason or Columbo or Kojak or ...fill in ancient detective series of your choice, to figure out whom Mr Brown would like to see brought to justice more than any other trainer. You don't suppose JM would scratch a horse because he was fearful of another medication violation do you........nahhh!! I'm sure someone besides the connections and personal hired hand vet saw IWR in pain and fluctuant in the ankle right!!!......Of course he would never do that!!

The thread is from today and about MTB..

hmmm hmmm

interesting post.

docicu3 05-03-2009 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
hmmm hmmm

interesting post.


If any fraction of this is true it shows once again what a disadvantage the player is at......there's no way to prove that JM scratched because of this but what a story.

Riot 05-03-2009 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
You don't suppose JM would scratch a horse because he was fearful of another medication violation do you........nahhh!! I'm sure someone besides the connections and personal hired hand vet saw IWR in pain and fluctuant in the ankle right!!!......Of course he would never do that!!

The thread is from today and about MTB..

I thought the horse was scratched by the state vet. He trotted sound, but was grade one lame on the left front ankle flexion test.

Regarding the blood testing, this year Churchill said they were supertesting (not doing just their normal tests) and freezing blood for future reference, too.

Edit: changing the medication rules via surprise on the trainers Friday morning could readily piss someone off, just for that fact alone.

Seattleallstar 05-03-2009 10:38 PM

lol who picked Hatton, someone must of watched too much 24/7

DaTruth 05-03-2009 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot
Regarding the blood testing, this year Churchill said they were supertesting (not doing just their normal tests) and freezing blood for future reference, too.

Do they have superheroes doing the supertestings? Fire up the Batmobile, there is trouble after the Gotham.


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