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Pedigree Ann 03-18-2007 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
You don't start a legitimate Derby contender in the middle of March unless something is wrong. ...

March 17, 1973 - Secretariat makes his 3yo debut, winning the 7f Bay Shore S at Aqueduct over Champagne Charlie and Impecunious (who shipped out of town to win the Arkansas Derby next out). He went on to win the Gotham on April 7 (ETR) and lose the Wood Memorial on April 21. Turf writers wonder if he's finished, since he's by Bold Ruler (hasn't sired a Derby winner yet, despite siring gobs of top 2yos) and a half-brother to Sir Gaylord, who was an ante-post Derby favorite but got hurt before starting.

Not to say Street Sense is a Secretariat, but sweeping statements like this annoy me.

ArlJim78 03-18-2007 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
March 17, 1973 - Secretariat makes his 3yo debut, winning the 7f Bay Shore S at Aqueduct over Champagne Charlie and Impecunious (who shipped out of town to win the Arkansas Derby next out). He went on to win the Gotham on April 7 (ETR) and lose the Wood Memorial on April 21. Turf writers wonder if he's finished, since he's by Bold Ruler (hasn't sired a Derby winner yet, despite siring gobs of top 2yos) and a half-brother to Sir Gaylord, who was an ante-post Derby favorite but got hurt before starting.

Not to say Street Sense is a Secretariat, but sweeping statements like this annoy me.

Pedigree Ann you're my hero.

the_fat_man 03-18-2007 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Hey fat man,
I think you need to read again the post again that got you all worked up. What exactly does blackthroatedwind say in this post? He says he is "concerned" and that he thinks the horse is "perhaps" a horse that does his best running inside. He isn't knocking the horse, but bringing up a legitimate question. If he had come on here and posted, "Street Sense is a fraud, he can ONLY win with a rail trip," that would have been a different story.
Your argument seems to be that it is not even worth considering that his last two big performances have come on the rail. That does not make sense to me. Almost everything that happens in a horse's race career is worth considering.....especially something like this.

Why does taking the best available route make the horse a possible rail runner (only)? Would you have preferred that he went around horses in Tampa? Would you have wanted a 3 or 4 wide trip in a 5 horse field (like Gomez in Cali)? Would that have allayed all concerns about this horses ability to run wide? Why is a good ride all of a sudden cause for concern?

I didn't misunderstand what he wrote. I just can see over analyzing.

the_fat_man 03-18-2007 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Dude honestly the trolling is getting to be ridiculous. I suppose the 1 or 2 jabs a week are funny but it's pretty obvious.

You really need to stop sucking up. Must hurt being on your knees constantly when the subject is as short as the one in question.

Are we still pissed about getting SCHOOLED in the Deadly Dealer race?

blackthroatedwind 03-18-2007 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Why does taking the best available route make the horse a possible rail runner (only)? Would you have preferred that he went around horses in Tampa? Would you have wanted a 3 or 4 wide trip in a 5 horse field (like Gomez in Cali)? Would that have allayed all concerns about this horses ability to run wide? Why is a good ride all of a sudden cause for concern?

I didn't misunderstand what he wrote. I just can see over analyzing.



I could respond by explaining, for about the fifth time, that I never made any conclusive observations, but merely offered a possibility, but since you have admitted that I am a " foil " of yours, and thus have admitted to trolling me, then there's really no reason to offer what you know to be the truth.

Cajungator26 03-18-2007 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
You really need to stop sucking up. Must hurt being on your knees constantly when the subject is as short as the one in question.

Are we still pissed about getting SCHOOLED in the Deadly Dealer race?

Awww... look at the cute little troll. :rolleyes:


easy goer 03-18-2007 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
In general, I think the " rail is the shortest route to the wire " concept is as deceptive a way of thinking as I know in racing. It is quite simply a misconception of race dynamics.

Can you elaborate on this? I think I understand what you are saying in relation to SS, but not really sure how terrible this thinking is. I understand a lot of horses dont like to come inside but are there examples of horses that dont like to go outside? Not really sure if this is your pt. or not. so...

randallscott35 03-18-2007 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Awww... look at the cute little troll. :rolleyes:


That movie scared the s.hit out of me...Plus Critters.

kentuckyrosesinmay 03-18-2007 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
March 17, 1973 - Secretariat makes his 3yo debut, winning the 7f Bay Shore S at Aqueduct over Champagne Charlie and Impecunious (who shipped out of town to win the Arkansas Derby next out). He went on to win the Gotham on April 7 (ETR) and lose the Wood Memorial on April 21. Turf writers wonder if he's finished, since he's by Bold Ruler (hasn't sired a Derby winner yet, despite siring gobs of top 2yos) and a half-brother to Sir Gaylord, who was an ante-post Derby favorite but got hurt before starting.

Not to say Street Sense is a Secretariat, but sweeping statements like this annoy me.

This is correct, but you can't really apply what Secretariat did in the 1970s to racing today. Training practices are very different and if you tried a training schedule like that nowadays, the horse would most likely never run again. I mean look at that...March 17 to April 7 to April 21 and then the first Saturday in May that year. Unbelievable. Plus, you are comparing Street Sense's campaign to an absolute freak of a horse's campaign. And who is to say that the reason that the connections of Secretariat waited so late in the year to start wasn't due to a little injury that was never released to the public. Secretariat never ran as a four year old right? Way too many unknown variables in there to compare Street Sense's late start in the year to Secretariat's....

Besides, the connections of Street Sense basically admitted that they were having issues with the horse...

blackthroatedwind 03-18-2007 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
Can you elaborate on this? I think I understand what you are saying in relation to SS, but not really sure how terrible this thinking is. I understand a lot of horses dont like to come inside but are there examples of horses that dont like to go outside? Not really sure if this is your pt. or not. so...


I'm not sure I would use the word " terrible ", as I felt deceptive was more apt, and I will try to explain.

Let's assume for this argument that all tracks are " fair ", in other words there is no advantage or disadvantage to being in one path or another, and only ground loss is involved. Thus, clearly the more time spent on the inside, or closer to the inside, on the turns the better in terms of overall ground covered. Thus, obviously there is some very real incentive to staying inside. However, many horses are intimidated by running inside of horses, whether in the stretch or sometimes even on turns, so they will not exert themselves if forced into this position. This does not hold true for ALL horses, and I wouldn't ever suggest absolutes like that, but it is true for many. In general, many horses do their best running unencumbered on the outside of other horses. So, for this reason it is a mistake, IMO, to automatically assume that an inside trip is a good trip. It may be...but it is far from an absolute.

I am sure you have bet horses in your life that have had sweet looking trips inside and behind horses and somewhat surprisingly didn't run as well as you figured, and almost looked to be spinning their wheels so to speak, only to come back and run much better the next time with a more outside trip. This goes against the " saving ground is best " way of thinking, and may be due to the horse being uncomfortable inside or perhaps not liking dirt getting kicked in its face, but for whatever reason I think it shows at least the possibility that saving ground is not ALWAYS the best way to victory. The horse's comfort CAN far outweigh any ground loss.

easy goer 03-18-2007 02:40 PM

See what threw me off in your original thought was that you mentioned "race dynamics" so I was unsure if you were referrring to the pace of the race, or perhaps, an inside outside bias or whatever.

That is why I was hesistant to bring up horse psychology as perhaps you were thinking along another line. Obviously a dead rail would not be good for running on the inside.

so you are speaking of horse psychology which I think mutes your pt. a little bit. If the horse has established that he can and will run inside of horses (like SS that we were speaking of) is there a reason for the punter to think that there maybe a problem if he doesnt get this trip?

I mean, I understand a horse who successful on the outside may have trouble running inside of horses but are there examples of the opposite: horses who could run inside of horses but did not like to run outside of them? I think that is where you are going with it, but I dont recall any offhand. See that is where I am a little bit wondering here, you seem to suggest that the opposite effect can happen.

Of course there are many example of horses that are hesistant while on the rail, I often bring up the example of Proud Accolade literally butt whipping another horse into submission on his inside, to take a race at AQU when he was a 2 yr. old. or Barbaro when he won that race in FL was really intimidating Like Now (?). Yeah that happens a lot. Was Any Sat. bumping a little with SS, yesterday?

zippyneedsawin 03-18-2007 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
I stand by it. He beat 1 horse today and ran better than I thought he would. That number as a two year old was the best ever for any juvenille winner. If he is the second coming of Secretariat he will show it.

And the sad thing is, I wasn't rooting against him in the least. Not at all. I think it would be great if a juvy winner could win the Derby....But if you follow Thoros and believe in them the call made sense. Nothing I saw today changes that.


Don't you mean the second coming of Mineshaft? :p

blackthroatedwind 03-18-2007 02:52 PM

Easy Goer
 
I am in no way saying I think Street Sense has shown he NEEDS to be inside to run well. However, there are horses who are " rail runners " that won't run well unless they are inside, though they are often hard to uncover and are probably fairly rare. I just thought it was interesting to point out about Street Sense and it MIGHT be food for thought.

Frankly, considering all the discussion my comment generated, some good and some bad, I'm glad I brought it up.

Grits 03-18-2007 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think you are missing my point, and it's not an absolute one, but at least a possibility.

Some horses are " rail runners " which effectively means they basically need to be on the rail to do their best running and will sort of sulk if they aren't on the fence. The converse is that some horses don't like being inside, and run inside as if they are effectively " chicken ", and won't pass horses on the inside. Since the two big efforts we have seen from Street Sense have come while rallying on the rail I am offering this as at least a possibility.

This is a long thread, and this being the original thought/possibility I think it fair to show BTW's first comment once again, as it DOES deal with psychology first. In that vein, I don't believe it qualifies to mark the last post as moot.

pgardn 03-18-2007 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'm not sure I would use the word " terrible ", as I felt deceptive was more apt, and I will try to explain.

Let's assume for this argument that all tracks are " fair ", in other words there is no advantage or disadvantage to being in one path or another, and only ground loss is involved. Thus, clearly the more time spent on the inside, or closer to the inside, on the turns the better in terms of overall ground covered. Thus, obviously there is some very real incentive to staying inside. However, many horses are intimidated by running inside of horses, whether in the stretch or sometimes even on turns, so they will not exert themselves if forced into this position. This does not hold true for ALL horses, and I wouldn't ever suggest absolutes like that, but it is true for many. In general, many horses do their best running unencumbered on the outside of other horses. So, for this reason it is a mistake, IMO, to automatically assume that an inside trip is a good trip. It may be...but it is far from an absolute.

I am sure you have bet horses in your life that have had sweet looking trips inside and behind horses and somewhat surprisingly didn't run as well as you figured, and almost looked to be spinning their wheels so to speak, only to come back and run much better the next time with a more outside trip. This goes against the " saving ground is best " way of thinking, and may be due to the horse being uncomfortable inside or perhaps not liking dirt getting kicked in its face, but for whatever reason I think it shows at least the possibility that saving ground is not ALWAYS the best way to victory. The horse's comfort CAN far outweigh any ground loss.

I will pose another reason. It is harder to turn on the inside compared to the outside on turns. What you gain in ground, you quite possibly lose in energy. In order to hold a tight turn you actually have to use more force to stay in that turn.

F (centripetal)= mv^2/r ... its v squared thats the tough part. You have actually slow down to not lose as much energy to hold you in that turn. Any time anything turns it changes direction. Any time a body changes direction it accelerates (changes velocity). Any time a body accelerates a force is required.

And I thank you.

randallscott35 03-18-2007 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Don't you mean the second coming of Mineshaft? :p

HAHA. :D :D

Merlinsky 03-18-2007 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I am in no way saying I think Street Sense has shown he NEEDS to be inside to run well. However, there are horses who are " rail runners " that won't run well unless they are inside, though they are often hard to uncover and are probably fairly rare. I just thought it was interesting to point out about Street Sense and it MIGHT be food for thought.

Frankly, considering all the discussion my comment generated, some good and some bad, I'm glad I brought it up.

Oh I think it's a fun thread. C'mon do your ESPN commentators bring that up at all? Nope. You get this kind of discussion on Derby Trail. Good times.

magic_idol 03-18-2007 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
I will pose another reason. It is harder to turn on the inside compared to the outside on turns. What you gain in ground, you quite possibly lose in energy. In order to hold a tight turn you actually have to use more force to stay in that turn.

F (centripetal)= mv^2/r ... its v squared thats the tough part. You have actually slow down to not lose as much energy to hold you in that turn. Any time anything turns it changes direction. Any time a body changes direction it accelerates (changes velocity). Any time a body accelerates a force is required.

And I thank you.

The shortest point From A to B is a straight line if your horse can handle the turn allways take the inside saves in distance a hell of alot,Some horses dont like being closed in so the outdside is better but mind the jockey they dont like sitting outside as it makes them look bad on TV

easy goer 03-18-2007 06:52 PM

Yeah, no, I mean it's good to bring up all kinds of pts. with regards to these horses. At least it gives you an excuse when they fail to perform as expected.

It's also possible that his, (SS) running style is a function of Borel, who I guess likes to ride that close to the rail. IF so this horse certainly is tailor made for his style. I thought he was blocked along the rail today as they entered the turn and didnt realize he had actually got through until I heard the announcer near the final strides. Faulty camera work, I guess.

THe horse I was trying to think of was Sharp Humour who went down to the wire w/ Barbaro in whatever race it was. He wasnt intimidated but Barb. tried to hip check him through the stretch. Did anyone see ANy Given Sat. doing that to SS? Or was it just a brush?


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