Betonline has Girvin currently at 26-1, seems like fantastic odds.

You can have him at those odds. Hard to play a horse in any kind of graded stakes race battling a quarter crack, let alone the Derby. To go a mile and a quarter as a lightly raced three year old off an abbreviated work tab and a bum wheel makes his task damn near impossible. He'll have to be a super horse to win. If he hits the board I'll lose every bet. Gotta break that egg, no matter how well he looked today. This is a play against for every serious horse player. Even at huge odds. There will be plenty of other horses at big numbers worth playing, like Thunder Snow, Hence, even McCracken might be 10-1+. No need to fish for odds in this derby. With that said, I'm sure he'll run off and win for fun...

If Girvin was 250/1 I would not waste my money, he wasnt good enough before the race let alone with all the training he has missed.

I meant the odds were a solid "value" as opposed to what was being offered everywhere else. 16-1 was the highest I've seen elsewhere.

So I wandered over to XBTV to watch the Derby horses work,I thought it was quite telling.
Here's how it looked:

Always Dreaming: It sure looks like he's going to be on the lead,he was wound up tight like an 8-day clock.
He wanted nothing to do with relaxing,or even bringing his work to an end.
Honestly he looked unrateable,but not in a bad way.
I just don't see how he doesn't bust the gate and go right to the front.

J Boys Echo: Dale Romans is pretty clever,JBE isn't much of a work horse......so Romans threw a bunch of stuff at him during his work,made him do things.
JBE must be solid fit now.

Battle of Midway: A Hollendorfer work right down the line.
Not a whole lot early,but the ending was strong and impressive.......that's how Hollendorfer likes it.

Royal Mo: He belongs in the race off his work,no nonsense and classy.

Gormley: They're sure trying to get him to relax,he's getting good at the right time.

Patch/Tapwrit worked together: Make no mistake about it........Tapwrit is the better horse.
That was an outstanding work from Tapwrit,no two ways about it.

McCraken: It looks like they're still playing catch up with him,if he shows well on Saturday Ian Wilkes should get all the credit in the world.

Irap: Worked exactly as O'Neil works his good horses,seems right on time.

Practical Joke: Saved the best for last,easily the best work on view.
Chad added the blinks..........beast work. :tro:

How's IWC been doing? Haven't heard anything about him all week

At Fair Hill so somewhat out of sight but all reports positive. Works this morning, ship Monday to Louisville.

Channing Hill gets call on Fast and Accurate..

Thanks Steve

Steve,
Do you remember if Motion followed the same plan with Animal Kingdom? I seem to recall he had a great workout at CD.

Thanks,
Bill

Different for Animal Kingdom because he needed to have the dirt workout 2 weeks out to convince Motion and Barry Irwin that they should try with him. Rest = History.

Todd Pletcher gives Tyler Gaffalione the call on Patch..

Steve (or anyone else on here can help me),

If Pletcher's 3 horses make the gate for the race- does that tie D. Wayne Lukas' record for number of Kentucky Derby entrants all-time? Or does it break it?

What are thoughts on the 'other' Casse horse, State of Honor?

If you like a horse don't let someone talk you out of it. Listen to their point of course but make up your own mind. He just worked at Kee 5F 59.60 b
seems like he is feeling pretty good

Might as well make it a Trifecta. The not so rich get richer!

Hedge Fund
Shareholder Value
Conquest Mo Money

Going into Saturday..

D. Wayne Lukas (1981-2015) 48/4-1-5 ~ Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (’95), Grindstone (’96), Charismatic (’99)

Todd Pletcher (2000-2016) 45/1-2-3 ~ Super Saver (2010)

Rock solid.. May not be ideally suited for 10f, but watching his races, gives if asked and is doing very well here. Hard to know where he'll be placed given Lezcano propensity for taking back and colt's best efforts which come on/near lead. Perhaps the most interesting of the long prices.

Thanks for the note. I like a horse who's had some races in him. I like him, Sonneteer and Tapwrit for the odds they'll have.

Can't wait to see post positions.

seems like a rock solid 2nd...but a good exotic play.


last 5...2nd,2nd,3rd,2nd,2nd