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-   -   Thank You Mine That Bird (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29440)

geeker2 05-03-2009 08:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
WTF are you talking about?

LMAO :tro: :$:

Left Bank 05-03-2009 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
i agree with that. i was more excited about game one between the caps/pens then i was about the race.
What was the score,by the way?

Danzig 05-03-2009 09:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Left Bank
What was the score,by the way?

3-2 caps! i was so mad about having to leave, about half an hour before the faceoff. thank god for sirius. people were looking at me kind of funny driving down the road, slapping the dashboard and yelling 'steckelllllllll!!". got home in time to see the last five minutes or so on t.v. watched the whole thing again last night when my son got home.

3kings 05-03-2009 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
it was a handicappers nightmare and the type of race that some fan hits...

anyone who knew anything about wagering would play against pioneer in most tickets other than the coverage tickets.

I had Calvin's horse and Join in the Dance (the speed) grouped 3rd or 4th in a superfecta each, but that is the highest I could envision him running to.


One of the hardest things about trying to make money at the horses, is that if you want to safely build your bankroll, you can't bet a lot more on the fun races then on any other good valued race. That can be damn near impossible when you handicap a race for so long, and have been so accurate for the last two years, and have such a strong opinion. :wf
How was your price on Fresian Fire?:rolleyes: All you did was say how your price was getting ruined by all the scratches, now your taking shots at people who supported POTN. What did FF pay for 16th? or 18th?

Danzig 05-03-2009 09:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3kings
How was your price on Fresian Fire?:rolleyes: All you did is say how your price was getting ruined by all the scratches, now your taking shots at people who supported POTN. What did FF pay for 16th?

he finished 18th, beat only flying private. larry jones was bitching after-this is why i'm retiring. oh, shut up and retire already.

byalip 05-03-2009 09:07 AM
Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

Danzig 05-03-2009 09:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by byalip
Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?
many times i don't even look at who's riding.
bill shoemaker could have risen from the dead to ride mine that bird, he'd have still been 50-1-and rightfully so.

calvin doesn't win every race with that ride you know. he has to have the horse to pull it off. it worked yesterday. everything came together for him and he got the brass ring.

parsixfarms 05-03-2009 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
What bias....one that helped overmatched horses?
I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

golfer 05-03-2009 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms
I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.
Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

parsixfarms 05-03-2009 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golfer
Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.
Kind of the way the old Keeneland played.

Bobby Fischer 05-03-2009 09:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by herkhorse
I guess I was asking WTF you were talking about, implying that I Want Revenge was scratched for a reason other than an injury.

what are you even talking about?
I Want Revenge was scratched. He didn't run.
you are way off in a different ballpark

Bobby Fischer 05-03-2009 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by byalip
Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?
Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.

The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.

dalakhani 05-03-2009 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.
The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.
It was a great trip no doubt and the ride was probably up there in greatest in derby history.

But does the horse get any credit? Sure...he freaked on a rail favoring sloppy track but he still freaked. That horse was much the best yesterday and it seemed to my eye that he wins with just an average trip and not the amazing one that he got. No?

Bobby Fischer 05-03-2009 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
It was a great trip no doubt and the ride was probably up there in greatest in derby history.

But does the horse get any credit? Sure...he freaked on a rail favoring sloppy track but he still freaked. That horse was much the best yesterday and it seemed to my eye that he wins with just an average trip and not the amazing one that he got. No?
No, he didn't freak.
With an Average trip he could have gotten anywhere from 10th- 4th

CSC 05-03-2009 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by westcoastinvader
Maybe I missed something in the story along the way, but I don't understand why brisnet.com had Richard Mandella
 listed as the trainer of Mine That Bird the day prior to the post position draw.

Here's the link, in case it still works:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...es/dby4-23.pdf
This horse is almost a complete unknown, it would be interesting to see if it was an Owner's decision to change Trainer's or Mandella's decision to not train him any further. Numbers aside, he was good in Canada last year, though not much to hang your hat on if you were a backer of the horse. Certainly not as low as 50-1.

blackthroatedwind 05-03-2009 09:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golfer
Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up, DrugS would have cashed his exacta, and only been whining that an impossible horse sucked up for third to cost him the tri and super.

The winner saved us from the most mediocre result in, at least, modern Derby history. But, relatively speaking, he still didn't run THAT well. He looked visually impressive, no doubt, but in many ways it was an illusion.

dalakhani 05-03-2009 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
No, he didn't freak.
With an Average trip he could have gotten anywhere from 10th- 4th
Well i will have to watch it again. Maybe i missed something. Looked to me like a horse won the derby yesterday by open lengths and it looked to me like he ran the best race of his life by at least 20 beyer points...but he didnt freak.

And you say with an average trip that he could have been...10th?

:wf :wf

sdjcom 05-03-2009 09:52 AM
Derby is over
 
turn the page next race!!

Bobby Fischer 05-03-2009 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3kings
How was your price on Fresian Fire?:rolleyes: All you did was say how your price was getting ruined by all the scratches, now your taking shots at people who supported POTN. What did FF pay for 16th? or 18th?
The race was an anamoly.

Calvin Borel took a risky gamble and it worked out into a hall of fame ride.
Friesan Fire was injured out of the gate and had a rough trip.

Friesan Fire's price sucked with underlays Pamplemousse, Quality Road and IWR all defecting, but obviously your post was meant to be a rhetorical snide remark, and you probably care/know little about a price.

Glad you liked the obvious underlay POTN, that pretty much says all that needs to be said about your horseplaying acumen.


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