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-   -   War Pass --DB ? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20804)

The Indomitable DrugS 03-16-2008 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

His first race...not so much his second one

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out...

This is rich.

You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85.

kentuckyrosesinmay 03-16-2008 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
His first race...not so much his second one



This is rich.

You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85.

All of the numbers are misleading because of the pace scenarios in the races. Isn't that what I said...

If I didn't, sorry, that's what I meant.

I did say that...I said "Again, pace scenario"....after that statement about Colonel John and El Gato Malo.

cmorioles 03-16-2008 12:30 PM

I did edit mine before you posted...I realize they are older. The point is, you can get fast Beyers going two turns.

Port Conway Lane 03-16-2008 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

1-20 is an awful lot of historical perspective. So much so, perhaps, that even the most expert among us would be hard pressed to recall the last undefeated 2 yo champ who went down badly in an important prep race at that kind of price.

Devils Bag ?

SCUDSBROTHER 03-16-2008 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

He backed it up in the BC Classic.Despite the love people have for the DERBY,it's still very much a case of who loves Churchill Downs.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-16-2008 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

El Gato Malo's and Colonel John's dams were both better turf horses than dirt horses.

And further, both of their sires have been very effective at siring synthetic runners.

El Gato Malo is sired by El Corredor ...who sired Domincan to an upset victory over Street Sense on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass.

Colonel John is by Tiznow....who's current other horses Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed are all more accomplished on synthetic tracks than dirt tracks.

I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-16-2008 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
I did say that...I said "Again, pace scenario"....after that statement about Colonel John and El Gato Malo.

You added it...you didn't say it originally.

You are the queen of the edit button.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-16-2008 12:41 PM

You know what it looks like when a Derby winner doesn't like a track? Look at the races Street Sense ran over synthetic.They can't quite get it done.They don't run f'n last.I don't think this is a case of load him up, and try again another day.

cmorioles 03-16-2008 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
He backed it up in the BC Classic.Despite the love people have for the DERBY,it's still very much a case of who loves Churchill Downs.

With a never in contention, suck up 4th?

sumitas 03-16-2008 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas
La Penta acts like he's the trainer so I would guess he's the guy that said run him.

Wasn't it a La Penta horse Bailey scratched from a race at post time at the Spa ? On national tv.

The real point is, and continues to be, the betting public is kept in the dark about the condition of the horses running in the races. A huge black mark on racing.

cmorioles 03-16-2008 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.

Good to know. I'm not really into that sort of thing once they run, but my eyes didn't tell me "dirt" when they run.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-16-2008 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Rarely have I seen such inane reaction to an off performance. I suppose it's because we get so few starts from the classic-campaigning runners, but some of what's been written is so outlandish that it's hard to believe.

People claim they're fans of racing... Well if they are, then they should be well aware that horses lose. They have off performances and toss clunkers. They run through issues like spiked fevers and stay on schedule for races and get beat because they aren't 100% that day.

No one recalls Holy Bull being beaten 24 lengths in the Fountain of Youth? Afleet Alex' Rebel? Real Quiet's Golden Gate Derby? Obviously not because the same ridiculous comments that are sprinkled throughout this thread, and the laughable 'oh my gosh' thread, were said about those 3 year olds, Croll, Ritchey and Baffert at the time.

It could be that we've been conditioned to think that an off effort means a soon-to-be-discovered hidden problem and immediate retirement because connections don't work through issues anymore. And while everyone is entitled to offer their opinion on the topic, some degree of reasonable and rational reaction coupled with a dash of historical perspective is highly suggested.

You got a recent example of a horse who ran that poorly(7-8 weeks before the Derby,)and still won the Derby? Would make more sense.Somebody run last in March,and then win the DERBY? I'd say the evidence points the other way,and people are putting a bib on a horse.You want us to be reasonable,but thinking this one has a decent chance to still win the Derby(if that's what you're selling) seems to be a statement without much reason.

sumitas 03-16-2008 12:50 PM

War Pass did look very weak as the race unfolded. Reason unknown.

kentuckyrosesinmay 03-16-2008 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
You added it...you didn't say it originally.

You are the queen of the edit button.

I just hit the back button right after I make the post because I sometimes forget to say everything I want to say. Sorry.

freddymo 03-16-2008 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
I will never view Zito in the same light again. As if Bellamy Road wasn't enough, but I could understand the Travers because it was a really big race and they were only going to be able to get one more race out of the horse anyway. Plus, I'm sure he had pressure from the owners.

This is a different situation:mad:


Not sure what to say other then I hope Mr. Zito can get over the pain of your disdain. Nick Zito is what is good about Horse Racing if you don't understand his love for the sport and horses then I pray you never have to diagnose anyone with a serious illness..

I am sure Zito is large enough after a storied career to tell ANY owner include Lapenta or Kinsman a horse isn't going to run when it isn't in the best interest of the horse.. Hind sight is 20/20...One thing I would bet on and that was WP was ready to win yesterday and 100% sound otherwise Zito would have never raced the colt. I don't know Bon lapenta but I assume Zito calls the shots and LaPenta is smart enough to understand that when Zito gives direction he takes it.. They have been partners for a long time and I seriously doubt LaPenta tells Zito when where and how to train his stock even a WP!

SCUDSBROTHER 03-16-2008 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Rarely have I seen such inane reaction to an off performance. I suppose it's because we get so few starts from the classic-campaigning runners, but some of what's been written is so outlandish that it's hard to believe.

Maybe it's because somebody on here called him superior,and he ran last.Could be that.

kentuckyrosesinmay 03-16-2008 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
El Gato Malo's and Colonel John's dams were both better turf horses than dirt horses.

And further, both of their sires have been very effective at siring synthetic runners.

El Gato Malo is sired by El Corredor ...who sired Domincan to an upset victory over Street Sense on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass.

Colonel John is by Tiznow....who's current other horses Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed are all more accomplished on synthetic tracks than dirt tracks.

I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.

Tiznow has also sired horses that were perfectly capable of running on the dirt.

Folklore
Liquidity
Tiz Wonderful

Colonel John. Turkoman...the dam sire...was certainly very accomplished on the dirt as was Tiznow. I don't see anything in his pedigree or movement that would suggest that he won't take to the 10 furlongs on the dirt. I don't think this horse needs to improve much. He is very good.

El Gato Malo. El Corredor out of a Mountain Cat mare. Again don't see anything in his pedigree that would make me think that he won't take to the dirt. With the way he ran in his last, the DI doesn't really mean much to me at this point either. He'll go the 10.

El Corredor
Adieu
Wanna Runner

Georgie Boy. Has turf action, and may be a little unsound. His pedigree is the most questionable as well. He should get the 10, but I don't know if he will take to the dirt.

Into Mischief (don't know what is going on with him). He should get the 10, and take to the dirt.

Harlan's Holiday
Denis of Cork

As for Well Armed, Bear Now, and Tough Tiz's Sis, how many times have they raced off the synthetic as opposed to the dirt? I know Well Armed went to England and UAE for awhile, but don't know what he did there, if anything.

freddymo 03-16-2008 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas
Wasn't it a La Penta horse Bailey scratched from a race at post time at the Spa ? On national tv.

The real point is, and continues to be, the betting public is kept in the dark about the condition of the horses running in the races. A huge black mark on racing.

Do you think it's possible for every track to represent every illness a horse has had between races? Race horses get sick like every other animal do you want them to represent everytime a horse takes a bad Sh_t also? lol

sumitas 03-16-2008 01:18 PM

What a loser. And a wimp. Of course the condition of the horses can be reported.

kentuckyrosesinmay 03-16-2008 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Not sure what to say other then I hope Mr. Zito can get over the pain of your disdain. Nick Zito is what is good about Horse Racing if you don't understand his love for the sport and horses then I pray you never have to diagnose anyone with a serious illness..

I am sure Zito is large enough after a storied career to tell ANY owner include Lapenta or Kinsman a horse isn't going to run when it isn't in the best interest of the horse.. Hind sight is 20/20...One thing I would bet on and that was WP was ready to win yesterday and 100% sound otherwise Zito would have never raced the colt. I don't know Bon lapenta but I assume Zito calls the shots and LaPenta is smart enough to understand that when Zito gives direction he takes it.. They have been partners for a long time and I seriously doubt LaPenta tells Zito when where and how to train his stock even a WP!

Bellamy Road certainly wasn't 100% when he raced in the Travers. I know that for a fact. That was a big race, so it didn't really matter to me because they were only to get one race out of the horse anyway.

The owner said that War Pass was sick. Based on how he ran yesterday, I'm sure he wasn't 100% and they knew it. It wasn't so much that they ran him when he was not 100%. It was more of the fact that they ran a GI horse in a GIII race that really doesn't matter that much when the horse wasn't 100% when the KD should be the goal and is only two months away. If it would have been an important GI, and the horse wasn't 100%, and they raced him anyway, my views would be different.

They probably have some deeper motive for racing him yesterday if he wasn't 100% though. Maybe the horse was done, they knew it, and were trying to get one more race out of him. Who knows? I guess we'll find out.


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