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-   -   '17 CROWN TRAIL THREAD: Always Dreaming; Cloud Computing; Tapwrit (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61911)

knickslions2 05-14-2017 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar (Post 1091166)
barring something unforseen or a freak performance by Classic Empire, AD will have a chance for a Triple Crown..wow

Long way to go my friend

richard burch 05-14-2017 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1091117)
unless it comes up muddy again, he will be hot and dirty. Would have been nice if Someone mentioned he had a good mud foot . One would think with all the people there, that someone would have noticed. I guess you don't notice unless you put your racing form or iPad down once in a while and look at the hosses.





I don't get the insult, but OK..and I don't have an IPAD

raininthrees 05-14-2017 11:16 PM

one of the more comfortable bet against propositions, is with any horse doing something he/she has never done, with fast turn around for a young fiery horse, at different track, and do we know what will happen and what kind of horse he is if he doesn't have lead and needs to pass other talented colts at top of stretch? all this for between 4/5-9/5 odds enjoy...

Alabama Stakes 05-14-2017 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raininthrees (Post 1091173)
one of the more comfortable bet against propositions, is with any horse doing something he/she has never done, with fast turn around for a young fiery horse, at different track, and do we know what will happen and what kind of horse he is if he doesn't have lead and needs to pass other talented colts at top of stretch? all this for between 4/5-9/5 odds enjoy...


Good post. Much not to like about Always Dreaming and his dream run in the derby

richard burch 05-16-2017 09:40 PM

Should read.....

Always Dreaming likely to defeat 9 in Preakness

RHT2004 05-17-2017 06:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raininthrees (Post 1091173)
one of the more comfortable bet against propositions, is with any horse doing something he/she has never done, with fast turn around for a young fiery horse, at different track, and do we know what will happen and what kind of horse he is if he doesn't have lead and needs to pass other talented colts at top of stretch? all this for between 4/5-9/5 odds enjoy...

Nonsense. Im not his biggest fan, but he rates kindly. Did he pass horses in the Fla Derby?

philcski 05-17-2017 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1090924)
I'm not interested in the chart. I watched the race, and particularly the start, quite a few times. Nobody got "crushed." Hyperbole is a dangerous thing.

If people rely on the chart comments in KY for their wagering decisions, they are broke.

And that's what makes this game great Andy... I saw a lot more trouble at the start than you did. Neither of us is wrong.

Kasept 05-17-2017 08:36 PM


richard burch 05-17-2017 10:02 PM

4/ w 5-1-3/ w 5-1-2-3-9 trifecta

Winna Winna Chicken Dinna!

Alabama Stakes 05-17-2017 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1091260)
4/ w 5-1-3/ w 5-1-2-3-9 trifecta

Winna Winna Chicken Dinna!

More like a ham sandwich

Dunbar 05-18-2017 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 1091218)
And that's what makes this game great Andy... I saw a lot more trouble at the start than you did. Neither of us is wrong.

Does anyone have a replay link that includes the head-on view of the start?

After reading BTW's comments I went back to watch the replays again, and I'd have to agree with him that in the standard overhead view, the start doesn't look that bad. However, it was the head-on view that I remember showing CE being bumped sideways extremely hard, almost off his feet. I don't totally trust my memory here, but I couldn't find a link that shows anything more than the standard network race replay, without the head-ons.

Weary 05-18-2017 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1091267)
Does anyone have a replay link that includes the head-on view of the start?


Head on replay of Always Dreaming winning the 2017 Kentucky Derby

robfla 05-18-2017 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weary (Post 1091268)

Thanks. Excellent view. It can be looked at differently by each person, but all I see is McCraken bumping CE and pushing CE to the inside of the track - where he probably wanted to be anyways. IMO, its marginal if the start cost CE any final positioning.

Alabama Stakes 05-18-2017 08:59 AM

Those hosses who ran 1-2 got the best trips for sure

Port Conway Lane 05-18-2017 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla (Post 1091271)
Thanks. Excellent view. It can be looked at differently by each person, but all I see is McCraken bumping CE and pushing CE to the inside of the track - where he probably wanted to be anyways. IMO, its marginal if the start cost CE any final positioning.

The flow in the run to the first turn was steady and the field separation was ideal for minimizing ground loss on the turn. I thought it was one of the more uneventful runs to the first turn comparatively speaking.

Hence was the only horse losing ground to the field in the 1st 1/16 of a mile which can be seen on the overhead view ( yellow cap with black silks ) . Hence actually got a good start despite the chart caller's " in tight at the break " comment. Once he checked out of his position Geroux yanked him toward the rail right outside of Lookin at Lee. He was further outrun by LAL throughout the remainder of the race so it's difficult for me to make a case for him.Though given the Preakness post positions it wouldn't surprise if he gets first run on LAL for the underneath slots.

Dunbar 05-18-2017 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weary (Post 1091268)

Thanks!

It still looks like a violent hit on Classic Empire and a stumble to me, but I can see how others might view it differently.

Also interesting is the view at about 1:10, where all but the front 4 have a solid coating of mud on their heads and front quarters. That can't have been pleasant. By the end of the race, there was one black horse and 18 mud-caked brownish greys.

declansharbor 05-18-2017 04:31 PM

Not sure if I've seen this anywhere or not, but it looked to me that Classic Empire's trouble at the start was some of his own doing, no?

The horses to his outside did him no favors, but it seemed to me that CE broke and his first few steps out of the gate were to his right. That said, shouldn't Leparoux have known that the horses in the auxiliary gate were to be coming inward for position sake??

cakes44 05-18-2017 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 1091302)
Not sure if I've seen this anywhere or not, but it looked to me that Classic Empire's trouble at the start was some of his own doing, no?

The horses to his outside did him no favors, but it seemed to me that CE broke and his first few steps out of the gate were to his right. That said, shouldn't Leparoux have known that the horses in the auxiliary gate were to be coming inward for position sake??

Leparoux don't give two sh!ts about the break in any race ever.

Dunbar 05-18-2017 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 1091302)
Not sure if I've seen this anywhere or not, but it looked to me that Classic Empire's trouble at the start was some of his own doing, no?

The horses to his outside did him no favors, but it seemed to me that CE broke and his first few steps out of the gate were to his right. That said, shouldn't Leparoux have known that the horses in the auxiliary gate were to be coming inward for position sake??

I agree, Classic Empire definitely made things worse by taking a couple steps toward the outside.

cakes44 05-19-2017 08:10 PM

This race has merry-go-round written all over it. AD + CMM with CE really close as long as Julien doesn't have his head up his @ss, and they just cruise around the track and it's an even more boring race than the Derby.

taxicab 05-20-2017 01:02 AM

As a rule of thumb I avoid second choices with a passion,but I think Classic Empire is the one on Saturday.

moses 05-20-2017 07:24 AM

Am I an idiot for putting some money on Conquest Mo Money to win? He looks like the only early speed horse in the race. Having not run in the derby, I'm hoping he's a little fresher and can get a nice run. Really like him at 15-1. We'll see what his final odds are.

10 pnt move up 05-20-2017 10:17 AM

Lot of talk about no pace in this race, wonder if there isnt some early movement by some of the riders and then it becomes a legit pace?

Rudeboyelvis 05-20-2017 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1091469)
Am I an idiot for putting some money on Conquest Mo Money to win? He looks like the only early speed horse in the race. Having not run in the derby, I'm hoping he's a little fresher and can get a nice run. Really like him at 15-1. We'll see what his final odds are.

I like quite a bit and don't think the post is a problem at all

Mike 05-20-2017 10:57 AM

Multiplier to win with a tri key cover of Always Dreaming over Multiplier, Conquest and Classic Empire

knickslions2 05-20-2017 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1091490)
I like quite a bit and don't think the post is a problem at all

Ya could be sneaky on lead here or push 4 and 5 to set up 3,6. I think he is key horse in this race. Good luck Dan

Mike 05-20-2017 11:49 AM

A lot of money coming in on Multiplier and Conquest Mo Money

http://www.nj.com/horse-racing/index...ting_info.html

cakes44 05-20-2017 05:55 PM

Great call on CC by one or two on here. I seriously thought that horse sucked ass.

10 pnt move up 05-20-2017 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1090824)
Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

Hey man, great handicapping, I was never into this horse but you nailed him so hope you hit it good.

Rudeboyelvis 05-20-2017 06:29 PM

Classic Empire is the reincarnation of Dortmund.

Here's to hoping he will continue to be helplessly over-hyped.

10 pnt move up 05-20-2017 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1091616)
Classic Empire is the reincarnation of Dortmund.

Here's to hoping he will continue to be helplessly over-hyped.

he ran a good race but with that slow pace and jump on the other horses how did he lose? Decent enough horse but will always be overbet.

Dunbar 05-20-2017 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1090814)
Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

:tro:



Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1090824)
...
His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

:tro:

richard burch 05-20-2017 11:49 PM

Congrats to C.C. and the connections. Did what they needed to win.

freddymo 05-21-2017 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1091616)
Classic Empire is the reincarnation of Dortmund.

Here's to hoping he will continue to be helplessly over-hyped.

Nope

RolloTomasi 05-21-2017 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1091617)
he ran a good race but with that slow pace and jump on the other horses how did he lose? Decent enough horse but will always be overbet.

Was that a slow pace? The early fractions, including the 6f mark were barely a second behind the 2 sprint stakes won by Recruiting Ready and Whitmore respectively, both of whom are in top form and amid win streaks.

NTamm1215 05-21-2017 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1091617)
he ran a good race but with that slow pace and jump on the other horses how did he lose? Decent enough horse but will always be overbet.

The Preakness pace was slow? I disagree.

NTamm1215 05-21-2017 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1091616)
Classic Empire is the reincarnation of Dortmund.

Here's to hoping he will continue to be helplessly over-hyped.

A juvenile champion, who has a Grade I win this year, who ran the best race in the Preakness is helplessly over-hyped?

Given all that Classic Empire accomplished as a 2YO and the way he has come to hand after a few rocky months as a 3YO I don't see how that argument can be made.

10 pnt move up 05-21-2017 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1091653)
The Preakness pace was slow? I disagree.

Yea, I felt it was kind to the front runners, he was 2 wide with a horse who chucked it at the 3/8ths pole....

I guess I am just no longer a fan of this horse, he ran very well but dang he should have won, and if he didnt win here.... at 7/5 or so the rest of the way I just dont want him.

You are correct though, was not slow.

RolloTomasi 05-21-2017 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1091654)
A juvenile champion, who has a Grade I win this year, who ran the best race in the Preakness is helplessly over-hyped?

Given all that Classic Empire accomplished as a 2YO and the way he has come to hand after a few rocky months as a 3YO I don't see how that argument can be made.

If Classic Empire's career arc is reminiscent of any former horse I would suggest Chief's Crown.

After a futile run in the Derby and getting tagged in the Preakness, he didn't stay the Belmont trip but went on to win the Travers and the Marlboro Cup (maybe the last edition?) later on that year.

Rudeboyelvis 05-21-2017 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1091654)
A juvenile champion, who was a complete no-show in the Holy Bull against 2 now-confirmed plugs and subsequently life and death to get a nose past Conquest Mo Money in one of the weaker preps, then failed in each of his two triple crown bids as favorite/2nd choice

Given all that Classic Empire accomplished as a 2YO and never developed as a 3yo does actually remind me of a Dortmund-type horse

FTFY ;)


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