Originally Posted by Bababooyee

You have to compare apples to apples. If I recall correctly, in terms of handle, Keeneland's fall meet has been on a decline since '03 or '04 (too short on time to look it up, right now). So, unless Calder and Fresno had similar trends (ie decline starting in 03 or 04 then a sudden boost in 06), such a comparison would be meaningless...if we're truly trying to be objective, that is, which is not always the case here. ;)

The Lexington Herald compares each day's handle against the same day last year, but I haven't seen a meet-to-date vs prior meet-to-date comparison. And I don't have the time or inclination to pull all the numbers and do the math!

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

You have to compare apples to apples. If I recall correctly, in terms of handle, Keeneland's fall meet has been on a decline since '03 or '04 (too short on time to look it up, right now). So, unless Calder and Fresno had similar trends (ie decline starting in 03 or 04 then a sudden boost in 06), such a comparison would be meaningless...if we're truly trying to be objective, that is, which is not always the case here. ;)

The Lexington Herald compares each day's handle against the same day last year, but I haven't seen a meet-to-date vs prior meet-to-date comparison. And I don't have the time or inclination to pull all the numbers and do the math!

Originally Posted by The Bid

Is Keenelands handle up or down. I know I havent touched Keeneland, but for maybe 3 races and Im good for 25 thousand during the meet. I sit with a few guys who make me look like a 2 dollar bettor and they won touch it either. Im very curious if they are losing the real players yet. Who cares about the young college kids all kicking in 3 bucks in a pick 6. Losing the real sophisticated whales is going to hurt, and I see that happening.

Originally Posted by The Bid

I agree with you. I think the real serious players, guys who have a clue and put up big dollars have decided to switch tracks. I bet Belmont's handle will be up, but I really dont think Keeneland's will. Not only is Keeneland's bias unreal, the best horses simply arent winning races. If you cant be rewarded for being sharp, knowing which horse is the best, why play? Like I said Im good for 25 a meet, the guys I get down with are good for 20k a day. They have swung that money over to Belmont, as have I. Im sure there are other guys who bet a lot of money doing the same thing, who can blame them?

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

God created horses and evolved their physiques and bio-mechanics over centuries of time to be tailored to perform in their natural environs in the wild – which are almost exclusively DIRT ranges and GRASS pastures and fields. They were NOT born to run over chopped-up rubber tires and synthetic fibers with wax-coated sand mixed in…….Oh how our sport will change because of this…oh how our sport will change……..

And sadly, I think it will change for the worse because it will change the way we breed horses…..Storm Cats and A.P. Indys – two of the top DIRT performing sires of modern day, both hailing from great families of longstanding dirt-producing superiority – could both now be replaced by commons like Lemon Drop Kid and Smart Strike (no knock on these studs, just making a point)…..our sport is at risk of failing to preserve the legacy of our most cherished and storied families…. oh, what a shame….oh, what a shame….

Everybody who doesn’t understand our game (most track execs) looks at the Polytrack as the saving force of our industry. Those people don’t have the capacity, intimate knowledge or care of the sport to look under the 'surface' and grasp an understanding of the long-term effects it will have on our game – because if they did, I think they would be rather concerned at the integrity risks we stand to lose.

What the implementation of Polytrack really is to these figures is a knee-jerk, quick-fix REACTION (not pro-action) to what they feel will solve problems in the areas of field sizes and horse health – which shouldn’t be hard to preserve on dirt with the right grounds crew. Maybe not at Turfway in the winter, but the California tracks should definitely have a way to provide a better racing surface than the ones they did. SO SHOULD KEENELAND. All they had to do is rip a page out of Churchill Downs' book – where the surface is as good as any is in the country – and they would see that in the same region of the country it IS possible to provide a good dirt track. I mean, what’s so different between Lexington and Louisville???

Ironically, the funny thing is that if Polytrack threatens the way we breed horses in the future (which I believe that it will), I think it will have a NEGATIVE affect on the sales market – the very thing that Keeneland makes all of its money on. Now, how funny would that be considering the fact Keeneland will be known as one of the leading, initial advocates of Polytrack?…….:eek:

With a City, Frankie Brothers filly that won the 2-year-old stake two weeks ago (who I bet on might I ad) and Asi Siempre in the Spinster (bet on her too although she couldn’t stand up next to Happy Ticket on the dirt)…..its all garbage…..the wrong horses are going down in history and we have just now started a trend that could seriously threaten what all of us know now as HORSE RACING.

Can you tell I love this stuff? :rolleyes:

:mad:

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

I really think you are now reaching here.
There is absolutely no similarity between a Mustang and a Thoroughbred. The Mustang was the one bred to run over dirt and grass, and they are doing just that on the plains of the West. The reality is Thoroughbreds are just as man made as the Polytrack they now race on. Thoroughbreds today are simply bred to get from point A to point B as fast as they can, regardless of how badly conformed they are, the fact of the matter is if Storm Cat was turned out in the plains of Montana, he would have his ass kicked by a 13 hand Mustang and driven off, and he would be too sore and crippled to do much about it. Thoroughbreds are bred to be fast, Mustangs have evolved to survive, big difference.

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Okay, I finally can't stand it anymore (pause while I put on my well-worn nerd glasses):

Horses weren't created/didn't evolve to run (evolve, in my opinion, for what it's worth). They were created/evolved to spend the majority of their time walking slowly over very long distances (the hoof is a marvelous adaptation for that-- it's essentially a big fingernail, so they are literally walking on tip-toe). They are capable of running very fast, yes, but for relatively short distances and in order to evade a predator (so are most hooved prey animals). They are designed to spend most of their lives walking slowly with their heads down, cropping a lot of a low-calorie food (browse). Yes, they can run for stretches in the wild and they do, but that's not an optimum state for the horse-- it's usually a response to a dangerous situation and ends when the danger does.

Yes, I know we've bred the TB to have the desire to run (and boy, do they!) but it's erroneous to start with the impression that the wild horse is designed to spend most of it's life in flight, regardless of the surface. It's not. I think if they were, A) their digestive system would not be as simple as it is and B)our domesticated horses wouldn't need so much cooling out time after a long exertion.

Okay, taking off the nerd glasses now and bracing for the hate mail. ;)

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Actually, GR, horses did evolve from Eohippus (Hyracotherium) to the present day Equus caballus for the specific purpose of speed because of predators.

Besides having to go further in search of feed and water, the horse evolved into the present day species of Equus caballus because they had to be able to run faster and further to escape enemies. Although the horse is not the fastest animal on the earth, the horse does possess great endurance. The horse is therefore, a creature of the open country and to this day, its first reaction to any strange or frightening object or situation is to panic and run away. This great fear of the unusual, plus the speed and endurance developed at the gallop, has made the horse a most valuable animal to man...

Another point to not is that world horse is derived from the Anglo-Saxon word hors meaning swift.

As a side note, their teeth evolved as an adaptation to vegetation changes. But their size and hooves evolved for reasons specifically related to speed, endurance...and power for those two purposes.

I can post numerous sources that say this if you would like. For the most, part the rest of your post contained some very good information. Sorry to get into the whole evolution thing for those of you who don't believe in it.

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

Cool stuff KRose. I just posted something about eohippus on a different thread.
Some of the most beautiful equine art can be seen on the ceiling of Lascaux. Painted by folks that really depended on them.
To me, they look a lot like Icelandic or Fyord ponies.
For sure they never ran on poly crap.
And I've never grilled a equi-steak. No recipe and absolutely no taste for it.
But the folks that painted their beautiful representations on those cave ceilings certainly did.
And, here, all the time...we thought it was really about clicking some numbers to our on-line betting account or passing some green paper through a window.
Times have changed!
The art remains.

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

The interesting thing is that while attendance is up approximately 6%, the on-track handle is about the same as last year (down slightly, in fact), so that 7% increase is actually from...!?!? Ima have to double-check my work, when I get a sec. But if I have avoided any typos in the sheet, this would be rather amazing considering all the bitching about polytrack we get around here and the "They ain't getting my money!" hysterics. Bark > Bite

Originally Posted by Honu

All the talk about the pro's and con's of Polytrack makes me think how horseman and fans must have felt when they introduced the electric starting gate with humans leading them in and handling them in the stalls. Im sure alot of people voiced concerns about the head man holding the horse or the gate not opening or horses not coping with the small confines.
Im sure when the electric teletimer came into use people thought that there was no way a peice of electronic equipment could replace the human hand and stopwatch that was used and that photo finish cameras would never take the place of patrol judges and the stweards watching thru binoculars.
And what about the toteboard? Im sure the die hard gamblers were freaking out that odds would be posted on a electronic board and not done on a oddsboard like they had always done before.
Just things to think about and the changes that racing has went thru over the years, we all seem to have adapted quit well and so have the horses.

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I've been throwing my money at Keeneland like crazy this meet, and have been doing obscenely well based on my fairly limited budget.

It's really no different than the old Keeneland surface -- in that once you figure out what on earth is going on, the horses winning start to make a lot more sense.

They may not be the "best" horses in every race, but there is an obvious edge to be had in handicapping Keeneland right now once you factor the surface into the handicapping, and it's been paying off really well over here at least.

Originally Posted by jackofhearts

Caveat being I haven't read the other posts in this thread.
So excuse me if I am repititous, and I will catch up.

Valuable article from Andy B yesterday, discussing the handicapping adjustments necessary to play the Keeneland races on the new polytrack surface.

The old speed bias is seriously dead, now replaced by a closer trend.

Riders who hustled their mounts through quick early pace have been finishing far up the track. The early fractions are now much slower(with final 1/4s somewhat quicker) as the pinheads adjust to how the new surface is playing. Turf runners who have never had main track success before are winning or doing well on the new surface(check the Spinster result and yesterday's feature).

Many people have been quick to assume that this will also drastically change the breeding industry away from producing pedigrees emphasizing precocious runners and early pace types. This could be true, however I am not as anxious to jump on that bandwagon.
Class and talent will still be just that. I expect the biggest change to be in how trainers bring along and prepare their runners. They might not be so anxious to develop that quick speed that wins early on with 2yos, favoring an easier, slower development back towards stamina. Also the way races are run and ridden will change quickly(already) and drastically more towards a Euro rider approach. Stretch runs may be much more competitive and exciting, with the smarter jocks having a greater advantage.

Hope y'all get a chance to read the article and a few of the other message board discussions about the changes from all perspectives.

I see the game changing big-time brothers, and all of you out west had better get prepared now, since this will probably affect you the most.

Other thoughts or opinions?

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think that Hollywood is a short meet and the effects of Poly out west won't truly be felt until the Hoolywood summer meet opens which leads into Del Mar which will have poly by then.
I also see owners out there with well bred or expensive horses who don't run a lick on it not having a hell of a lot of patience.
This will lead to owners shipping horses of said horses back East for dirt racing.
I think the biggest impact it will have out there will be that several big name trainers may open stables or increase their presence in the East so that if and when this happens, that they won't lose horses completely to other trainers in the East. They will simply tell the owner that they are gonna ship the horse to their East Coast division.
I make this a very short price to happen Jackofhearts.

Originally Posted by paisjpq

at the same time though we MAY see the owneres of horses that are successful on synthetic tracks start shipping IN to california...something that does not currently happen very often. Not saying that the two will balance each other out equally at first but over time they probably will.

Originally Posted by oracle80

I also see owners out there with well bred or expensive horses who don't run a lick on it not having a hell of a lot of patience.
This will lead to owners shipping horses of said horses back East for dirt racing.
I think the biggest impact it will have out there will be that several big name trainers may open stables or increase their presence in the East so that if and when this happens, that they won't lose horses completely to other trainers in the East. They will simply tell the owner that they are gonna ship the horse to their East Coast division.
I make this a very short price to happen Jackofhearts.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I work in an industry that has underwent sweeping changes in the last 25 years. Every time a new round of changes came through there were always members of the old guard ready to chime in with the predictable refrains. “It’ll never work”, “We’ve never done it that way”, “Don’t you realize that this will change how we do things”. Every time the people that don’t embrace or understand the changes are swept aside like relics of a by gone era. From reading some of the comments here it seems apparent that those in this industry have been relatively sheltered from change over the years and are scared to death about what might happen. It’s a natural reaction but in my mind a huge over-reaction.

The relatively minor change from dirt to engineered dirt does not alter the game or the product in any large way. In small ways yes but certainly not enough to bring the industry to its knees as was suggested. Furthermore this change has already happened. I don’t know why some are acting like it still might go away if we just cry loud enough. In the near future all this hubbub will die down and people will look back and wonder what all the hue and cry was about.

Why? Because the engineered dirt will cause both people and animal alike to make countless little changes, which will in total, ameliorate the impact of the change. Trainers and jockeys will fine-tune their craft. Maintenance crews will find ways to improve the feel and performance of the stuff. Handicapping books will be rewritten. “The Power of Early Speed” may need a total rewrite! Handicappers will find new tools (those that haven’t already) to help them develop a proper race picture. Yes there may even be changes to the roster of leading sires. So what if Storm Cat and AP Indy drop a few notches and some others rise whose progeny show a tendency to run well on the stuff. This too will become understood readily and digested by the industry.

Finally, the engineered dirt itself will evolve. While there are only so many things you can do with real dirt, there will be no end to the future refinements of this product. If we’re on version 2.0 now, soon there will be 3.0 then 4.0 and so on, each change brought about to address the industry concerns and each time it will become more and more consistent and safe. Then other companies will come along and offer an alternative and competitive pressures will ensure that the price stays down and that enhancements continue to roll out.

No I don’t see any big deal with this change. It’s not going to cause a mass exodus to dog tracks and slot machines. Although the industry is not entirely the healthiest, this change is one that in the long run will be seen as a benefit.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Found this is in a DRF Hollywood notes piece describing that the first few days of racing showed no particular bias;
"Several jockeys said Wednesday they are in the midst of learning the best way to ride on this surface, and trainers are adjusting, too."

Originally Posted by sumitas

Fantastic ! The track looks in great shape allready. These new surfaces are keeping my spirits up.

Polytrack fans, we can rejoice on this dawn of a new day. We can huddle with each other and the horses and remember all the fallen ones that came before. Praise God and we must go forward.