i like him too, but not here.

really? you don't think people will be put off by him only beating flying private in the derby?

Nope. I definitely see him as favored over MTB. No way he goes from the Derby favorite to 10-1 in this race. I could be wrong, but that's my guess.

I dont see the Derby as a race that most rational bettors use a gauge to determine the chances of a particular horse next out. Theres always too many horses causing atypical trips, and this year's Derby was run in slop, albeit Friesan Fire is a horse who likes it wet. Like every year, there are a few very logical horses who had excuses.

Friesan Fire is a tough one to gauge odds on but I would guess much lower than 10/1. Maybe 6/1?

that's the thing-he had some good races, but fell so flat in ky, and supposedly liked an off track. second off a layoff tho, with his seven week break from his last to the derby...

i like rachel, but i really like musket man here and would definitely use him in ex's and tri's.

General Quarters was involved in a very minor van accident after the driver missed the exit to Pimlico, he's Ok:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...-accident.aspx

It would be pretty weird to make a stop at Wendy's and see the Derby winner peeking his head out of the window of the trailer. :D

i'm thinking that won't be the last time flying private and luv gov show up late...:D

Unlikely. Had he run an indifferent 8th or something, maybe, but he finished 2nd last beaten 43 lengths. You and I know that was not a real effort but the majority of the people betting the Preakness will not look past it.

Will there be a 14th horse?

Asmussen is the new trainer for RA?? Horrible!!

Previous owners got thier money and Hal Wiggins get nothing??

This is shaping up to be a good race IMO. When RA was entered, I was quick to make her my top choice. Now that I've looked a little more, I'm not so sure.

I will be at a wedding reception about the time the race goes off. I have got to find someway, somehow to watch it.......

Sounds like a winner.

I'm going to bet against RA, the rewards are too enticing if she doesn't win. Right now it sounds like they shouldn't even run the race because they have already handed her the Preakness.

Rick Reilly article on RA and the Preakness:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=4161951

I like how he says she is undefeated in 4 tries - he fails to mention that is just for 2009.

OMG! That was mush city... Poor Rachel now she has no chance in this race...

He should have waited til AFTER the Preakness to publish that if she wins..

I read that the 2nd place horse in the Kentucky Oaks got a 75 beyer....seems like any colt could have crushed that field

Should entries for Saturday be up today?

The 3rd place horse got just a 68 Beyer.

Imagine regressing 32 Beyer points from your last start and still hitting the board in the Kentucky Oaks. Pretty amazing.

That was a very tough day to make figs though - the number for that race could easily have been a few points higher.

Doug..

Jerry Brown said the same thing yesterday about the Oaks in a discussion about the figs for the race.

Later tonight after they draw Preakness 5-5:30 (on HRTV and ESPN 360).

Thanks! :)

I got a 114 equivalent. I don't think it was as tough as I initially expected it to be, and I think Beyer's minions took too many liberties. The fact was Miss Isella ran out of her skin, the Bullsbay race was terrible, and Rachel was phenomenal. Everything else fell into line relatively well.

I know.

I've agreed to pay him a $90 a day consulting fee so he supplies me with smart things to post.

Of course, we have nothing in writing ... but he knows I'm good for it.

anyone have the post positions?

Yeah geez, where's the list?

Ok all I got is Big Drama is in the 1 hole and Rachel Alexandra's on the outside. I know this because Steve said so on his show. Hopefully Haskin can come on but it'll be at least 30 min I bet b/c he has his own deadlines. I've looked all over the place for the list of the posts. Anybody got the full run down? How long could it possibly take to put the bare bones list on ESPN or Bloodhorse? I don't mean Steve Haskin's typically excellent analysis. I just mean 1-13, horse names. I don't even need the jockeys/owners/trainers. Stupid ESPN360.com isn't available from my Time Warner provider and I can't get HRTV. What the heck?

1. Big Drama 10-1
2. Mine That Bird 6-1
3. Musket Man 8-1
4. Luv Gov 50-1
5. Friesan Fire 6-1
6. Terrain 30-1
7. Papa Clem 12-1
8. General Quarters 20-1
9. Pioneer of the Nile 5-1
10. Flying Private 50-1
11. Take the Points 30-1
12. Tone it Down 50-1
13. Rachel Alexandra 8-5

wow post 13.... the lucky number... wonder how much this hurts her chances? Maybe she is naturally fast enough to not be hurt by it? Just wide the first turn at least.. correct?

Also, no way Mine That Bird goes off at 6-1

Baffert just said that he thought the post was a good thing for RA

about 23 seconds to the first turn, plenty of time to settle

ok cool... and she seems to have so much natural speed that she should be okay by then HOPEFULLY!!!

alright, my fortune cookie today said:

"the only safe way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket"

lucky numbers: 1,10,13,36,37,40

take the 1,10,13 to the bank....

I think this is the most facinating race in a long time:

1. Does RA run away with the race taking on the boys - I don't think so
2. Is MTB a one race wonder or is the turn around warranted based on the one run change and Borel - I think better than expected but won't win
3. Do the horses that did not fire in the Derby come back to show the form that many thought? - Possible for FF
4. Can Big Drama control the race. Everyone's talking about it so I say no.
5. At first look it appears there will be a bunch of horses stalking. Who moves first? Not sure, but I'm starting to think a horse will close from off the pace and I'm going with TERRAIN!

Should be a great race.

Spyder

Hopefully this keeps her odds above 2-1.

Speaking of numbers.... didnt the # of last years derby... also be the same winning # as the preakness ? Or the year before.. ..:confused:

crazy 8's ?

3 years ago, Barbaro was 8 in the Derby, Bernardini 8 in the preakness, and Jazil 8 in the Belmont

settle yes but I imagine the other riders keep her out at least in the 3 path.

Bookend exacta possible here....

Was just watching ESPN and Hank Goldberg said that Big Brown won the Preakness from the outside post. Is my memory awful or is Hank Greenberg just a bumbling fool -- much like most sportscasters on ESPN?