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-   -   Jerry Brown's letter to TDN on HOY discussion (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32796)

Danzig 11-21-2009 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
"And oh yeah, winning this country's premiere race for three-year-old fillies by 20 lengths. Imagine if a colt won the Derby by 20. Imagine anyone winning a GI by 20. They make HBO movies about that kind of thing."

Mr. Brown needs a history lesson. The Kentucky Oaks is not our premier race for 3yo fillies and never has been. For decades, the real American Oaks (sponsored by the Coaching Club of America) has been run at a real classic distance, either 10f or 12f. And after the CCA Oaks, the Alabama has always had more prestige than the KY Oaks. You do realize that when grading was introduced, the Ky Oaks was only a G2? While the Monmouth Oaks and the Cotillion H at Liberty Bell were G1s? Just because it is run during Derby week doesn't mean that the Ky Oaks is a comparable race.

One could argue that the distance of her win at Churchill was assisted by the sloppy track; fields are always more spread out on off tracks.

this is really off the mark. regardless of what got graded when and how, you can't argue with the field that shows up for the ky oaks each year. it certainly seems more of a draw than the coaching club or alabama. history isn't something to ignore, but you can't ignore how things have changed in the modern era.

Smooth Operator 11-27-2009 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy
Forget the surfaces. This is a no-brainer. R.A. is the better horse and she is H.O.Y. Period.
It's a no-brainer ... for people who are high on crack.

Granted, enough of the lemmings will likely vote for the Alexander filly to put her over the top for the HotY award … but there's no doubt as to which was the superior animal this year.


Does anyone actually believe that that 3yo filly could've held off the 5yo monster mare in a two-turn 9 or 10f affair on a fair dirt surface???

If so, you really need to step away from Jersey boy's bong for a while…

letswastemoney 11-27-2009 10:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smooth Operator
It's a no-brainer ... for people who are high on crack.

Granted, enough of the lemmings will likely vote for the Alexander filly to put her over the top for the HotY award … but there's no doubt as to which was the superior animal this year.


Does anyone actually believe that that 3yo filly could've held off the 5yo monster mare in a two-turn 9 or 10f affair on a fair dirt surface???

If so, you really need to step away from Jersey boy's bong for a while…
I don't understand why people just assume what would happen. A dirt surface would play more favorably to Rachel's running style, therefore she'd have a better chance. Not saying for sure she'd win, but it would be a close race.

People are letting their emotions get away with Zenyatta's Classic win. She's not invincible. Maybe she can run 112 beyers, but Rachel has proven herself capable of those numbers on a dirt track already.

Smooth Operator 11-27-2009 11:15 PM
When healthy horses are held out of world-class championship events we have no choice but to make assumptions, letswastemoney.


Unfortunately, despite her impressive achievements, RA never proved that she could handle a horse of Z's quality … or that she could stay the classic 10f distance.

Z was older and stronger and likely would've gotten to RA … even on a dry dirt surface, imo.

And I don't believe people are "letting their emotions get away" with Z. Her Classic was a powerful, impressive performance by any objective measure.

brianwspencer 11-27-2009 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smooth Operator
When healthy horses are held out of world-class championship events we have no choice but to make assumptions, letswastemoney.


Unfortunately, despite her impressive achievements, RA never proved that she could handle a horse of Z's quality … or that she could stay the classic 10f distance.

Z was older and stronger and likely would've gotten to RA … even on a dry dirt surface, imo.

And I don't believe people are "letting their emotions get away" with Z. Her Classic was a powerful, impressive performance by any objective measure.
Wait, assumptions other than the one where her new owner said there was no way, no how, he was going to run her there? They were dodging nothing, they didn't want to run on a surface that is patently unkind to dirt horses...the classic type their star runner is.

And there is nothing to say Rachel wouldn't get 10f at all, which is a favorite trope of the Rachel bashers, but there's still little to even remotely think she couldn't get the distance.

Cue the Woodward with 9f scenarios infused into a 10f race responses.

It's really boring, for Christ's sake.

Smooth Operator 11-27-2009 11:57 PM
Lol … did the "new owner" conveniently forget about the race she won at Keeneland, spencer?

The guy made a BUSH-LEAGUE call to skip the championship event and I'd love to see it bite him in the ass.


And yeah, she can get 10 panels … hell, any horse can run that far. Question is … could she get the classic distance with a high-quality router like Z breathing down her throat in the lane?

HIGHLY unlikely, in my estimation…

letswastemoney 11-28-2009 12:24 AM
Cigar won a turf race or maybe two. Doesn't mean it was the right surface for him though. No one ever penalized Cigar for being only a dirt horse.

brianwspencer 11-28-2009 09:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smooth Operator
Lol … did the "new owner" conveniently forget about the race she won at Keeneland, spencer?

The guy made a BUSH-LEAGUE call to skip the championship event and I'd love to see it bite him in the ass.


And yeah, she can get 10 panels … hell, any horse can run that far. Question is … could she get the classic distance with a high-quality router like Z breathing down her throat in the lane?

HIGHLY unlikely, in my estimation…
Do you pay even the minimum amount of attention to understand that not every synthetic surface operates the same, Smooth?

I'd be more than willing to take a frontrunner to Keeneland under the right circumstances...why anyone would take one to Santa Anita is beyond me.

The guy made a perfect call given his runner's style and affinity for a certain surface, and the fact that he decided to skip the BC has no more bearing on his charge's talents than does the fact that they skipped the Beverly D. on the lawn this summer. More succinctly, he wants his dirt horse to run on dirt...where dirt horses run. Not on the turf, not on Pro-Ride, which plays just like turf and nothing like dirt, which is why you saw the best Grade I turf field assembled all year for the biggest "dirt" race of the year. Please.

10 pnt move up 11-28-2009 10:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
The guy made a perfect call given his runner's style and affinity for a certain surface, and the fact that he decided to skip the BC has no more bearing on his charge's talents than does the fact that they skipped the Beverly D. on the lawn this summer.
no effect on talent correct, but maybe should have an affect on an Eclipse Award?

Totally agree with this statement, though he played a little gamble when it came to the Eclipse Awards. He skipped the championship event and gambled that Zenyatta would not be good enough to win the classic (and lets face it just about ever pro capper was on his side on that call).

Now its a closer race. No way a east coast horse does not get the edge here, the media is in the east so that will be way to much for Zenyatta to overcome in a ballot deal.

Merlinsky 11-28-2009 10:38 AM
Rachel's easing back into training. Let's play a game of 'spot the amusing typo' shall we? http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=43558

What's the timeline for HOY ballots going out and being due? I know somebody said the deadline awhile back but I can't remember.

dalakhani 11-28-2009 11:04 AM
Is it fair to say that the Clark supports Zenyatta's case a litte bit? Just a little bit?

Merlinsky 11-28-2009 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Is it fair to say that the Clark supports Zenyatta's case a litte bit? Just a little bit?
How? Einstein threw in a spectacular clunker at SA. It's hardly indicative of the quality of that field, and it says more that he's a better horse than he showed in the BCC.

dalakhani 11-28-2009 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merlinsky
How? Einstein threw in a spectacular clunker at SA. It's hardly indicative of the quality of that field, and it says more that he's a better horse than he showed in the BCC.
Okay, but what does this race say about those horses that were in the woodward?

RolloTomasi 11-28-2009 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Okay, but what does this race say about those horses that were in the woodward?
Their connections should have taken Jess Jackson's cue, and gave their horses a break?

dalakhani 11-28-2009 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Their connections should have taken Jess Jackson's cue, and gave their horses a break?

Perhaps. Or perhaps it reinforces the notion that the older horses Rachel beat in the woodward were garbage.

RolloTomasi 11-28-2009 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Perhaps. Or perhaps it reinforces the notion that the older horses Rachel beat in the woodward were garbage.
Possibly. I certainly wouldn't try to compare them to Awesome Gem or Colonel John.

You know, the good older horses.

dalakhani 11-28-2009 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Possibly. I certainly wouldn't try to compare them to Awesome Gem or Colonel John.

You know, the good older horses.
LOL. Touche.

She certainly didnt beat anything on the level of Einstein. Is that fair to say?

RolloTomasi 11-28-2009 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
LOL. Touche.

She certainly didnt beat anything on the level of Einstein. Is that fair to say?
Not if you just watched a replay of the Stephen Foster.

Merlinsky 11-28-2009 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
LOL. Touche.

She certainly didnt beat anything on the level of Einstein. Is that fair to say?
Arguably neither did Zenyatta, given what Einstein turned in BC day. Macho Again and Bullsbay were probably in their top form for the Woodward. At least part of the facing solid older males, whatever the gender of the 3yo, is dealing with the mental pressure. I'm not altogether sure RA didn't realize these were tough experienced horses and that she decided to handle them anyway. I hate implying Z wouldn't have beaten them in the same form that RA did, because both of them had the ability. RA fought past an obstacle that Z didn't the opportunity to match, not really Z's fault.

10 pnt move up 11-28-2009 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merlinsky
Arguably neither did Zenyatta, given what Einstein turned in BC day. Macho Again and Bullsbay were probably in their top form for the Woodward. At least part of the facing solid older males, whatever the gender of the 3yo, is dealing with the mental pressure. I'm not altogether sure RA didn't realize these were tough experienced horses and that she decided to handle them anyway. I hate implying Z wouldn't have beaten them in the same form that RA did, because both of them had the ability. RA fought past an obstacle that Z didn't the opportunity to match, not really Z's fault.
I actually think Gio Ponte is a quality horse on either surface, and ran his race.


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